Boise State-Arizona State Prospect Recap

Kellen Moore has a very high football IQ and good accuracy but his arm strength and size limit his overall upside as a prospect.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State: Moore was the superior quarterback in this game and it wasn’t because of his size and arm strength it was because of his impressive football IQ and accuracy. He consistently made good pre-snap reads, flashed the ability to make anticipation throws, and delivered throws with quality ball placement. He threw two interceptions but the first one bounced off of Tyler Shoemaker’s hands for an easy interception and the second one occurred when he was hit as he threw and the ball floated in the air and was easily caught by a defender. He got lucky that he didn’t throw three as he got hit as he threw one other time and the ball floated in the air and an Arizona State defender seemed to misplay it as it fell harmlessly to the turf. Regardless of his interception total Moore was impressive in this game. He still has to transition to playing under center more consistently in the NFL which was partially demonstrated by a fumble as a result of a mishandled snap in one of his few snaps from under center. He also doesn’t do a great job in the face of pressure which was illustrated a bit by his issues throwing interceptions and some other poor passes when Arizona State was able to generate a pass rush against him. He’s a good quarterback with a quick release, good accuracy and a great head on his shoulders which makes him draftable in the 4^th/5^th round range but he will be limited by his very average arm strength and his lack of elite size. He will get drafted for his accuracy, experience and his football IQ and that will help him stick on a NFL roster as a back-up. If he can develop for a couple years he might get his shot at a primary back-up role which could lead to a chance as a spot starter. You never know what might happen, but I don’t think Moore is going to be an expected starter in his first two or three years in the NFL.

Doug Martin is without a doubt the top senior RB in this draft class and if he makes it to the 3rd round I think he will be an absolute steal.

Doug Martin, RB, Boise State: Martin is probably the most impressive 2012 NFL Draft prospect in this game in my opinion. I have a 2^nd round grade on him right now and I could see him sneaking into the 2^nd round if he impresses in the postseason. He not a tall back at 5’9” but he weighs 208 pounds and looks very strong. He’s got good leg drive, good vision as a runner and as a return man, he runs through arm tackles with ease, has good balance to absorb contact, impressive burst, acceleration, patience, soft hands and he is likely one of the best pass blockers of any of the running backs in this draft class. I think he’s going to be a very good running back in the NFL and he is almost certainly going to end up starting or contributing right off the bat depending on where he ends up going. He’s a complete back and honestly he warrants comparison to another do it all back already succeeding in the NFL: Ray Rice.

Tyler Shoemaker, WR, Boise State: I haven’t seen much of Shoemaker this year but he had a solid game tonight. He isn’t a freak athlete at receiver at 6’1”, 212 with a 4.5 40 yard dash but he has solid hands in combination with that size. He did have one key drop tonight that led to an interception, but he produced 954 yards and 16 touchdowns on 62 receptions this year. He warrants late round consideration to be sure, but I definitely need to see more of him before I come to a complete conclusion.

Nate Potter, OT, Boise State: Potter always struck me as a guy who would have to slide inside to guard, but seeing him a bit more before tonight has made me reconsider to a degree. I think he could move inside in a zone blocking scheme, but I think his best position may ultimately be at RT in a ZBS. He isn’t a force in the running game and might be overmatched inside at guard in that aspect, but he isn’t an impressive LT in my opinion and will have to shift from that spot to be a quality starter in the NFL. RT is the compromise I think makes the most sense so he won’t be overmatched as a pass blocker or as a run blocker. I’m not sure where I project him right now, but a 3^rd/4^th round grade makes sense at this point.

Billy Winn is a quality defensive line prospect that should be able to play DT in a 4-3 or DE in a 3-4.

Billy Winn, DT, Boise State: I was very impressed with Billy Winn last year and I am still impressed with him. At 6’3”, 300 pounds he has NFL size and should be able to play defensive tackle in a 4-3 or possibly defensive end in a 3-4. He wasn’t as statistically productive this season but he drew significantly more attention this season after he demonstrated a lot of ability last year. He definitely warrants 3^rd round consideration and may very well be one of the players that improves his stock in a postseason all-star game. He’s got upside and I’m excited to see where he ultimately ends up.

Shea McClellin, DE, Boise State: McLellin is a quality NFL prospect. I’ve got a 3^rd round grade on him right now but he’s got legitimate NFL ability. He’s got an impressive motor along with solid size at 6’3”, 255 pounds. I think he will be a rotational guy for a while, but reminds me a bit of Brian Robison who has found his way into the starting lineup for the Vikings. He had 9.5 TFL and 6 sacks coming into the game against Arizona State and added another sack at least in that contest, and while I don’t think he will be a high draft pick I do think he’s going to get drafted in round three or four.

George Iloka, S, Boise State: Iloka is an impressive specimen for a safety at 6’3”, 215 pounds with a 4.5 listed 40 yard dash time. He has never impressed me an awful lot in coverage, but he demonstrated the ability to cover receivers in man coverage tonight against Arizona State which is encouraging. He only had 7 career interceptions including just one over the last two years as well as only 6 pass break-ups over that same time period. Perhaps that is because offenses respected him and didn’t challenge him, but I’m not convinced that is the case. Regardless, he has legitimate NFL talent and projects as a 3^rd/4^th round pick right now. It will be interesting to see what he does at either the East-West Shrine Game or the Senior Bowl. His performance at either game could be critical for boosting or hurting his stock.

Brock Osweiler may have had a tough night against Boise State but he showed plenty of mental toughness and leadership. He's raw but he has a lot of upside.

Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State: Osweiler is a guy I have been talking up all year since seeing him play months ago. He’s a first year starter and is clearly very raw but he flashes ability that is definitely encouraging. Will he be a 1^st round pick next year? Maybe, but it’s definitely not a sure thing at this point. He definitely has that ability but he hasn’t been consistent enough yet to be considered a lock in that regard. He has great size at 6’8” and a rocket arm but his accuracy isn’t always what you would want it to be, his throwing motion could use a bit of tweaking and he doesn’t have a lot of experience as a starter. He needs to learn to make better pre-snap reads and being able to compare and contrast his game with Moore’s was very interesting. Moore relies upon his smarts and his ball placement to succeed whereas Osweiler is more reliant on his physical tools like his size, athleticism to extend plays at times and his rocket arm strength. As Osweiler learns to move in the pocket better, make better pre-snap reads and hopefully improve his accuracy a bit he will be a very good QB. His accuracy is good right now, but it could be improved especially if he continues to drill his footwork. I’m not sure what impact having a new coaching staff at Arizona State will do for him, but hopefully it has a positive impact and not a negative one. If it has a positive impact then Osweiler could be in the 1^st round conversation next year.

Gerell Robinson, WR, Arizona State: Robinson has had a great season and most people didn’t know a thing about him before this year. He was easily Osweiler’s go-to receiver and while he didn’t always make the play he consistently came up with a 3^rd down catch or a big gain downfield to extend drives and provide a spark to Arizona State’s offense. He has legitimate NFL prospects due to his 6’3”, 222 frame and his 4.58 40 yard dash time. He won’t be a burner in the NFL and some of the vertical plays he was able to make at Arizona State won’t be as realistic against more talented, athletic corners than he faced in college this year, but he has plenty of upside as a possession receiver due to his impressive size. He’s got reliable hands and consistently makes catches in traffic so even if he doesn’t create elite separation at the next level he can still produce. Additionally, he has the size and hands to be an effective red zone target which increases his value. Finally, he also seems to be a pretty willing blocker which with coaching could make him even more valuable. I have a 5^th round grade on him right now, but it will be interesting to see if he gets any postseason love from the East-West Shrine Game or maybe even the Senior Bowl. I’d love to meet him down there and interview him considering how much I have watched him this year as a result of taking a look at Osweiler and Vontaze Burfict.

Mike Willie, WR, Arizona State: Willie is the less impressive starting receiver for Arizona State. He was in Robinson’s shadow all season this year but I think he has the potential to make a team either as a very late draft pick or as an undrafted free agent. He has solid size at 6’2”, 212 pounds, a listed 40 yard dash time of 4.59 and solid hands. He didn’t play as well as Robinson did this year, but I think he could still make a roster, contribute on special teams and eventually get worked into a rotation. He’s never going to be more than a 4^th/5^th wide receiver on a roster, but he could contribute as a possession type receiver on 3^rd down and in the red zone. The trouble is there are plenty of those types of receivers available and the NFL is looking for big time playmakers and Willie just isn’t one of them. That hurts his stock.

Rashad Ross may not have had glamorous numbers as a junior but he contributed much more late in the season and is my early favorite to be Osweiler's new go-to guy next year during his senior year.

Rashad Ross, WR, Arizona State: Ross is listed as a DB on the depth chart I’m looking at for Arizona State but he has come on late in the season as a wide receiver and as a return man in light of Jamal Miles’ absence. He only had one reception for nine yards against Boise State but he absolutely burned a Boise corner on a double move and may have scored a touchdown if Osweiler had been able to get the ball off despite Boise State’s pressure. Regardless, he had a significant impact on the game as a return man by returning the opening kickoff of the 2^nd half 98 yards for a touchdown to briefly give Arizona State some momentum and a chance at a comeback. At 6’0”, 174 he doesn’t resemble three of the top receivers on Arizona State who are 6’2” or taller and profile as possession type receivers due to their large frames. Ross may be 6’0” tall but he is very skinny but has great speed to threaten vertically. He produced 16 receptions for 241 yards and one touchdown in Arizona State’s final seven games after only totaling two receptions for 13 yards and zero touchdowns in their first six of the season. I think he has the upside to return as a senior as Osweiler’s future go-to guy much like Robinson did this year and with his speed and burst I think he could have a huge year next year. I’d like to see him come back at 175+ to help keep himself healthy for a full season, but his speed and playmaking ability should be on full display for Arizona State next year. Keep an eye out for him.

Garth Gerhart, C, Arizona State: Gerhart is a solid but not spectacular center prospect. This interior offensive line class is pretty strong this year, especially if a couple juniors declare, so Gerhart may not go as high as he would in other years. However, Gerhart has the potential to get drafted in the 5^th round range, make a NFL roster as a back-up, and eventually work his way into the starting lineup. He’s a very experienced player, he’s a good snapper, and while he won’t be able to handle a defensive tackle one on one very often he definitely profiles as an eventual NFL starter. He reminds me a little bit of Todd McClure because of his lack of ideal size but in spite of it he was an effective starter for multiple years. I don’t know if his football IQ and intangibles are as impressive as McClure’s, but if they are then I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a starting NFL center in a few years.

Jamaar Jarrett, DE, Arizona State: Jarrett isn’t a stud defensive end and he may not get drafted before the 7^th round if he is drafted at all, but I have a feeling he will make a NFL roster somehow. He has quality size at 6’5”, 262 pounds and looks like he can add weight to his frame. He has a less than impressive listed 40 yard dash time of 4.90 which makes sense because he isn’t a pass rushing menace by any means. However, he is solid versus the run and has a quality motor which he demonstrates when pursuing from the backside and making stops downfield. His best bet may be to bulk up to 280+ and attempt to stick as a 3-4 DE, but regardless I think he has a NFL future as a back-up somewhere.

Will Sutton is only a sophomore and is a bit undersized judging by his listed weight but he has been consistently disruptive all year and I expect big things from him as a junior.

Will Sutton, DT, Arizona State: Sutton is only a sophomore defensive tackle but he has plenty of upside. He was incredibly disruptive tonight against Boise State and he got a number of clean hits on Kellen Moore and was responsible for one of his interceptions by hitting his arm as he threw. He isn’t the biggest guy as he is listed at 6’2”, 270 pounds but he definitely looked bigger than that (in a good way) against Boise State tonight. I would not be surprised to see him up to 285 by the time his junior year comes around next season. He may not be the biggest guy but he definitely has impressive burst and quickness and flashed some hand usage to disengage from blocks to pressure Moore consistently tonight. He is definitely an impressive player and while the stats haven’t shown it yet he was one of the rare consistently disruptive forces on Arizona State’s defense this year. Look for him next year, I think he might be ready to explode on the scene.

Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State: Burfict is a pretty polarizing player and it’s not hard to see why. He consistently pisses people off with dumb penalties like late hits on a quarterback or on players running out of bounds and he has a bad boy reputation. I don’t know exactly why he was benched late in the season, it may be for a variety of reasons, but one of them I heard was that he refused to go back in the game after he was benched temporarily late in the season. I can’t confirm that, but it was mentioned on the broadcast tonight if I remember correctly. It’s frustrating because Burfict has great NFL size for a middle linebacker at 6’3”, 250 pounds but given his proficiency for dumb penalties on the field and for getting in some fights with teammates off the field in the past it might be hard for some teams to look past his issues to consider him a quality prospect. Now, he isn’t a first round lock because of his size and athletic ability and there are holes in his game, but it will be interesting to see if he declares after his rough season or if he comes back next year to try to make a run at the Pac-12 title with Osweiler at the helm under new coach Todd Graham. I wouldn’t be surprised if he left, but if he does he will have to answer a lot of tough questions about his behavior this season. Some of it is very warranted, but I personally believe he is targeted for personal foul penalties more than even Nick Fairley was last year because of his reputation. I spent a lot of time watching Arizona State this year (partially because I wanted to see Osweiler and Burfict, partially because they are usually on late so there was no other football to watch) and while some of the penalties he drew were legitimate there were definitely times when he drew a penalty for a clean hit that I personally don’t believe should have been a penalty. However, because it was a hard hit or because it was a 50/50 call or no call play the refs threw the flag. That has everything to do with his reputation. Burfict acknowledged the penalties and attempted to back off and not play with as much intensity to avoid the fouls but refs still called him for penalties that I didn’t believe were legitimate. That likely contributed to him boiling over and getting benched. I can’t say that for sure, but that is my take on the whole matter. I believe the personal foul penalties have been severely overblown, but his reaction to them and his attitude issues at the end of the season are definitely concerning. His upcoming decision to go or stay will say a lot about his true character in my opinion. If he has character and wants to win more than anything he will likely come back to try to help his teammates win, but if he is selfish like many claim he is then he will leave to chase money and avoid more possible conflict at Arizona State. We will have to wait and see what he does.

Shelly Lyons, OLB, Arizona State: Lyons is a late round OLB prospect that could very well go undrafted, but I think that his combination of solid size at 6’2”, 228 pounds, reliable tackling and solid coverage warrants at least 7^th round or undrafted free agent consideration. I think he could be a quality special teamer that eventually finds himself as a back-up on a NFL roster. I’m not sure he will ever be a starter, but he can make a career out of being a special teams player if he wants to at least in my opinion.

Eddie Elder, S, Arizona State: Elder is a quality tackling safety but I have not been impressed with him in coverage over the last two years. He isn’t a big guy at 5’10”, 185 pounds and doesn’t project as a starting NFL safety but like Lyons I think he warrants late round or priority free agent consideration because of his tackling and his ability to potentially contribute on special teams.

Clint Floyd, S, Arizona State: Floyd may end up like Elder as a late round pick or a priority free agent addition but I think he has a bit more ability in coverage than Elder does. He has similar size at 5’10”, 194 pounds which hurts his NFL prospects as a safety but he seems to be a solid tackler and looked alright in coverage tonight even though he got lucky with his interception. He will likely end up trying to make a roster as a special teams player as well, but I think he has the potential to make a career out of that and being a back-up safety.

Thanks for reading!

–Tom

Updated QB Rankings: 11/25/11

1- Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: Grade: #1 overall pick
2- Matt Barkley, QB, Southern Cal: Grade: Top 5-10 overall pick
3- Robert Griffin, QB, Baylor: Grade: Top 15 overall pick
4- Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma: Grade: Late 1st/Early 2nd
5- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M: Grade: 2nd round
6- Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin: Grade: 3rd round
7- Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State: Grade: 3rd round
8- Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State: Grade: 3rd/4th round
9- Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia: Grade: 3rd/4th round
10- B.J. Coleman, QB, Chattanooga: Grade: 4th round
11- Ryan Lindley, QB, San Diego State: Grade: 4th/5th round
12- Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State: Grade: 5th round
13- Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State: Grade: 5th round
14- Nick Foles, QB, Arizona: Grade: 5th/6th round
15- Chandler Harnish, QB, Northern Illinois: Grade: 5th/6th round
16- John Brantley, QB, Florida: Grade: 6th round
17- Matt Scott, QB, Arizona: Grade: 6th round/7th round
18- Patrick Witt, QB, Yale: Grade: 7th round/UDFA
19- Case Keenum, QB, Houston: Grade: 7th round/UDFA
20- Dominique Davis, QB, East Carolina: Grade: UDFA
21- G.J. Kinne, QB, Tulsa: Grade: UDFA
22- Aaron Corp, QB, Richmond: Grade: UDFA
23- Austin Davis, QB, Southern Mississippi: Grade: UDFA
24- Jarrett Lee, QB, LSU: Grade: UDFA
25- Jordan Jefferson, QB, LSU: Grade: UDFA

Afternoon/Evening Game Notes:

Vanderbilt-Kentucky:

-Jordan Rodgers has helped revitalize Vanderbilt’s season and in his fourth consecutive start he has Vanderbilt within one game of bowl eligibility. He’s very athletic, has some arm talent, but is still improving and developing as a quarterback. He isn’t on the same level as his brother, but it is worth watching what he can do in the SEC both this year and next. He’s got some weapons on offense in Zac Stacy at RB plus Jordan Matthews and Chris Boyd at WR. Matthews and Boyd are both 6’3″ plus, and as Rodgers continues to develop and gain experience I think he might make Vanderbilt a potentially fun offense to watch next year. Rodgers will be a senior in his first full season as a starter next year, Stacy will be a senior, Matthews will be a junior and Boyd will be a sophomore. They’ve got some intriguing pieces on offense, let’s hope this isn’t just a teaser and that they actually take the next step next year. I for one will be rooting for them to do so.
-Zac Stacy had another big day for Vanderbilt. I’ll need to watch him more because he has had a productive season this year. He now has 891 yards and 9 TD’s on the season as well as 16 receptions for 78 yards. I would expect him to exceed 1,000 yards rushing either this upcoming week or next, and if he is able to do then Vanderbilt has a solid shot at a bowl game. He’s their workhorse, and without him I don’t think Vanderbilt’s offense would be nearly as productive as they have been recently. I haven’t scouted him yet, but I will get to it soon when I watch Rodgers just to get a baseline idea of what he can do.
-I’m not sure anyone has enjoyed Rodgers’ presence at the quarterback position more than Jordan Matthews. He had his 3rd consecutive 100+ yard game after totaling just 8 receptions, 107 yards and 1 TD in the first six games he played in (he missed the game against Alabama). It has been a totally different story the last three weeks as he has produced 21 receptions, 452 yards and three touchdowns (one in each of the last three games). He’s been super productive and has helped open up Vanderbilt’s offense. Can’t wait to watch some of these recent games to see what he can do.

Baylor-Kansas:

-Robert Griffin had a very slow start, and while I didn’t see the game and I can’t speculate on how it happened, it certainly seemed like he carried Baylor back into the game and ultimately won it in overtime today against Kansas. I was wondering why he was struggling so much against such a seemingly bad Kansas squad, but he really rallied Baylor late in the game and helped erase a 21 point 4th quarter deficit. They scored three touchdowns in the quarter (all by Griffin, 1 rushing TD and 2 passing TD’s), forced overtime and Kansas went for a two point conversion and failed, resulting in a one point win for Baylor. I’ll definitely be watching this game later, because I have been wondering if Griffin had the ability to lead his team to a comeback win like this for a while. It was against a bad Kansas team, but it is still more than I have seen from him before. Obviously my thoughts on this game will be posted on my blog once I have a chance to break it down at a later date.

Georgia-Auburn:

-Aaron Murray is a guy I’ve been impressed with since he was a freshman. It feels like he’s been leading Georgia forever, but he is still only a sophomore. Still, he seems more mature than your average sophomore and is without a doubt the leader of Georgia’s football team. He had one of the best games of his career today when he went 14/18 for 224 yards and 4 touchdowns while adding 21 yards rushing. He was making plenty of stick throws and was placing the ball perfectly today. It was fun to watch him play this well.
-Jarvis Jones is an animal. I don’t have a lot of defensive players in this list because it’s tough to find stats for defenders the day of the game, but Jones warrants mention. I’m not sure what his final statistics were in this game, but I know he had at least one sack because I saw it. He has 9 sacks on the season I believe and an unreal 16 tackles for loss. He’s been fantastic for Georgia, and has incredible upside. It’s going to be fun to watch him develop. He’s only a sophomore, but he has had an absolute break-out season this year. He’s listed at 6’3″, 241 pounds and looks skinny on film. He has plenty of room to add weight, and I would be surprised if he wasn’t 250+ next year as a junior for Georgia.

TCU-Boise State:

-I definitely kept an eye on this game not only because there were plenty of prospects to see, but because these two teams always seem to play each-other pretty tough. TCU played them tough again today and unfortunately it came down to another field goal attempt and Boise State couldn’t capitalize on it. Must be frustrating for Boise and their fans, but yet again they won’t get a shot at an elite bowl game. I hate to say it, but I have been one of their detractors who said that if they were in a better conference they wouldn’t always be undefeated. They aren’t exactly changing my mind by losing to Nevada last year and TCU this year.
-Kellen Moore is a good QB, but I question his ability to be a NFL starter. His arm strength is an issue, but that can be improved up and overcome at least to a degree. It’s definitely worrisome that he doesn’t throw a great deep ball because of his lack of arm strength and he doesn’t have good zip on intermediate or longer throws. He’s an accurate quarterback though, he’s very intelligent and he has tons of starting experience as a four year starter. I think he can stick in the NFL, I just don’t think his combination of size and arm strength give him a lot of upside as a potential NFL starter. I do think he will make a roster and be quality back-up that might eventually get his shot, but I think he is a developmental guy that will get drafted in the 4th round range. One thing that bothered me about him today was his issues handling pressure that TCU was bringing. He isn’t used to getting hit, and when TCU was able to pressure him, hit him and sack him he seemed rattled and was missing some throws that he usually makes. He obviously rebounded in the second half, but I thought that was worth noting.

Wisconsin-Minnesota:

-Russell Wilson was the epitome of efficiency and Montee Ball broke the Big 10 single season touchdown record with three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving) today against Minnesota. He has an unreal 27 touchdowns on the season now. He has 1,232 yards, 23 rushing touchdowns and 14 catches, 234 yards and 4 touchdowns on the season. Definitely a fantastic year, and they still have two games left against Illinois and Penn State (I have a ticket to the Penn State game, very excited for that). Russell Wilson literally threw one incompletion today, and threw for 178 yards and 4 touchdowns.
-Nick Toon showed up big for Wisconsin today, but I am a little concerned that he all but disappeared in Wisconsin’s big games against Michigan State and Ohio State with a combined 5 catches for 97 total yards and 0 TD’s in those games. His only 100 yard games have been against the likes of South Dakota and now Minnesota, two teams with vastly less talent than Wisconsin. To be fair to Toon, who I think has NFL upside, he did have 4 catches, 94 yards and 1 TD against Nebraska which was Wisconsin’s first big game of the year. However, it is a bit concerning that he didn’t step up in much closer games later in the year, but is showing up against less significant opposition like he has.

USC-Washington:

-Matt Barkley continues to play well and I have to say he made Steve Sarkisian look pretty smart for saying he’d draft Barkley over Andrew Luck considering Luck’s relative struggles against Oregon tonight (to be covered later in this post) as well as Barkley’s quality season this year. He seems to have gotten better every week, which makes me think that the chances of him declaring early might be increasing. Regardless, still fun to see him play well because I have been high on him since he was a freshman.
-If you read my blog consistently you may remember me saying that I don’t know why Curtis McNeal isn’t getting more touches for USC a few weeks ago. Well recently he has been, and he has been playing fantastic. He has exceeded 100 yards rushing in three of the last four games, and has exceeded 85 yards rushing in each of the last five. Last week against Colorado he sat most of the second half, but in the first half he had 10 carries for 87 yards. Against Washington today he had 18 carries for 148 yards and another touchdown. Keep feeding McNeal USC, he’s got tons of ability. Looking forward to seeing him continue to grow and develop.
-Robert Woods and Marqise Lee are still beasts. Really fun to watch them play. People are really underestimating how significant Lee’s emergence has been for Woods. If Lee wasn’t playing this well as a freshman then Woods would be getting doubled and USC’s passing attack would be significantly impaired. It’s fun to watch these guys when Barkley has time to get them the ball.

Arkansas-Tennessee:

-Tyler Wilson continues to have a very good season for Arkansas. He’s flying a little under the radar, but he has played very well. He has 2,850 yards passing, 18 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions on the season after the game against Tennessee today. He has NFL upside, but I don’t think I will put a first round grade on him assuming he comes back for his senior year next year. I’d place him in the 2nd round conversation because he has upside, but needs to work on some things. Doesn’t always spin a clean ball, doesn’t have a rocket arm (though replacing Mallett would make anyone’s arm strength look inferior) but has quality accuracy.
-Dennis Johnson has been very strong the last four weeks and is showing Arkansas fans what might have been if he hadn’t gotten hurt and allowed Knile Davis to become the staple of their running game last season. He has filled in pretty well, and is one of the more underrated running backs in the SEC.
-Jarius Wright continues his fantastic season. He has the potential to end up in the 1st round, he has had a terrific year this year. He has 53 catches, 906 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games now. He is their go-to guy on offense.

Virginia-Duke:

-I didn’t get to see this game since it wasn’t on in my area, but Chase Minnifield, a cornerback on Virginia that I am very high on, had his 3rd interception of the season (13th of his career) and returned it for his first career defensive touchdown. I’m high on him and I look forward to getting to watch him more often.

Oregon-Stanford:

-This was supposed to be the game of the night but Oregon definitely surprised me and played much better than I expected them to. They were in control of this game after the 1st quarter, and they just had way too much speed and athletic ability on offense for Stanford.
-Andrew Luck played well in my opinion, but made a few mistakes and was flustered at times. He threw two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown and struggled to make plays downfield due to his lack of talent available to him at wide receiver. He still played a good game, but even Luck couldn’t find a way to win this one. His team was overmatched talent wise, especially at wide receiver and cornerback. Luck looked human in this game, but he is still a very good quarterback. He responds very well to adversity and was simply trying to make a play with his back against the wall when he threw his pick 6. It’s unfortunate how it played out for him, but he’s still a lock for the #1 overall pick in my opinion.
-Darron Thomas threw the ball as well as I have ever seen him throw it in this game. He would miss a throw every once in a while, but he was throwing darts all over the field and made some legitimate NFL throws in this game. Makes me wonder where this has been all season, because he looked like a completely different quarterback in this game. I didn’t even see him throw the ball like this last year when he led Oregon to the National Championship game against LSU.
-LaMichael James continues to play well, and it is very reassuring to see him healthy even if he has to play with that big pad on his right arm. He’s very explosive, agile and is stronger with better leg drive than he has had in previous years. I still have a 2nd round grade on him, but I don’t think he’s going to be able to hold up as a feature back in the NFL.
-Chase Thomas, an outside linebacker on Stanford, had a horrible game today in my opinion. He was taken out of the passing game by Darrion Weems, the senior Left Tackle on Oregon, and struggled mightily against the zone read that Oregon runs so well. He consistently collapsed on the running back instead of staying disciplined and making sure Thomas didn’t pull it and run. Instead, Thomas was able to keep it and scamper for significant rushing yardage a number of times and each time it was Thomas who let him break contain. Definitely a disappointing game for Thomas.

Arizona State-Washington State:

-It is fitting that this was the last game on tonight as well as the last game in this post because in my opinion it was the best game of the night. I completely expected Arizona State to win, but Washington State pulled off the upset thanks to two unreal individual performances.
-Connor Halliday is a freshman quarterback that has played in only three games in his college football career. I’m not even sure that he started this game for Washington State since I started watching after it had already started, but that doesn’t take away from what he was able to do. Halliday, a 6’4″, 180 pound freshman went 27/36 for 494 yards and 4 touchdowns and led the Cougars to an upset of Arizona State. He wasn’t just checking down and hitting drag routes for lots of YAC either, Halliday was making stick throw after stick throw and he was doing it under pressure, on 3rd down, it didn’t seem to matter. When he was threatening to take the lead he threw a strike to the end zone and it was dropped. Then it was 3rd and long, his RT jumped for a false start penalty. Now it was 3rd and longer and what does he do? Deliver another strike to the end zone for his fourth touchdown of the game to take the lead. Halliday played a fantastic game and while he doesn’t have perfect mechanics, a rocket arm or perfect accuracy he certainly has good arm strength, accuracy and shockingly good pocket poise for a freshman. The amount of poise it took to go toe to toe with Arizona State’s potent offense led by a quarterback in Brock Osweiler that has legitimate 1st round talent in his first significant playing time in his college career is inconceivable. He played a fantastic game, and was honestly the most impressive player that I watched today. That’s how good he was.
-Marquess Wilson was Halliday’s favorite target today as he accumulated 8 receptions, 223 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had an absolutely unreal game today, and while I had heard of him before as one of the best receivers in the Pac-12 I didn’t really think he was on the same level as Robert Woods and Keenan Allen but after seeing him tonight I think he is worthy of being mentioned as one of the best young receivers in the Pac-12. This was the first I’d ever seen him, but he had an absolutely fantastic game. He made a number of tough catches and obviously came up big when his team needed him to, and he helped make Connor Halliday look like a 4th year starter who had led 10 4th quarter comebacks in his career tonight.
-Brock Osweiler was impressive as well, though his performance will likely be lost in the shuffle because of Connor Halliday’s emergence and because he ultimately won the game. However, Osweiler still went 28/44 for 351 yards and 1 touchdown in this game despite an anemic running game that mustered just 60 yards on 24 carries. Osweiler would have had even more yards if his receivers hadn’t dropped a few catchable balls (particularly one by #13 that absolutely changed the game. He dropped a ball right on the money in a hole in the zone on 3rd and goal that would have been a TD, Arizona State then attempted a field goal and missed it, giving Washington State control). However, he was making some very impressive NFL throws. He was putting touch on passes to get the ball over the linebacker and in front of the safety down the seam and behind the corner, in front of the safety down the sideline. He made stick throw after stick throw in the 2nd half to lead his team to touchdown drives to try to stick with Washington State’s suddenly potent offense. I was very impressed even though he had a couple questionable decisions, but he played very well and deserves props for that. I’m still very high on him for the 2013 NFL Draft.
-Gerell Robinson had a huge game for Arizona State. He had 8 receptions, 158 yards and 1 TD tonight, and when I was watching I didn’t see him drop any passes he should have caught.

I know it was a long post, but hopefully you appreciated some of my thoughts on the afternoon and evening games. Thanks for reading!

–Tom

Updated 2012 QB Rankings: 10/18/11

Andrew Luck is the ultimate prize for whatever NFL team manages to lose enough to get the #1 overall pick.

1- Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford– Did you expect anyone else to be #1? He’s the best QB prospect I’ve seen since I’ve been scouting and he’s a great bet to be the #1 pick in the 2012 Draft should he declare after this season (and there have been rumblings that he will).

2- Matt Barkley, QB, USC- Barkley has been on my radar since he was a true freshman at USC. I was never sold on Aaron Corp and while I thought Mitch Mustain had potential as a sleeper before his off-field issues, I always thought Barkley was the most talented QB on the roster once he got there. That has proven to be true, and he has continued to develop in a pro-style offense since emerging as the starter during his freshman year. Now in his junior year it seems there is a strong chance he will declare. I wouldn’t be surprised if he did, but I think there is a small chance that he comes back to take a run at a Rose Bowl because their bowl ban will have expired. Part of me wants him to stay, but there isn’t much left for him to prove outside of leading his team to a great season with a post-season win.

3- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M- Tannehill flashed incredible upside last year leading Texas A&M to a furious finish before ultimately losing to LSU in the Cotton Bowl. He hasn’t had the same incredible start this season but he has still flashed potential. He doesn’t have much experience but as he continues to develop he could become a quality NFL QB. He has quality tools such as arm strength, accuracy and athleticism. Plus, he seems to be a guy with quality intangibles and leadership capability, so even if you need to develop him for a year or maybe two he has the upside physically and mentally to warrant early round consideration.

Russell Wilson might not be rated this high by other draftniks, but he's a great QB. The only serious knock on him as a prospect is his height.

4- Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin- Russell Wilson won’t be this high on many people’s rankings, but I was one of the people that was wholeheartedly convinced that he would be a spectacular quarterback for the Wisconsin Badgers and I said just as much in my post that I wrote shortly after it was announced that he was going to play for them this year. I didn’t think he’d be this terrific so early, but that really speaks to his fantastic intangibles and leadership qualities. Wilson’s only knock as a prospect and as a quarterback is his lack of size, as I would estimate he is about 5’10” or maybe slightly taller. That will make his transition to the NFL more difficult, but he is a very talented quarterback. He’s got very good arm strength, has accuracy to all levels of the field, throws a very nice deep ball, can make any NFL throw, and has demonstrated quality pocket poise at times. I think he could stand to improve as a passer with pressure around him when he’s in the pocket, especially when there is pressure at his feet. However, he is very athletic and uses his athleticism to extend plays and is great at making plays outside of the pocket. He may not be an ideal quarterback for a West Coast offense that requires frequent three step drops and throws as he will struggle to find throwing lanes at times and he may have problems with passes getting batted down at the line of scrimmage. But if he is drafted to a team with an offensive coordinator who knows how to get him out on the edge and make effective use of his athleticism and ability to throw on the move he could be a very dangerous quarterback. I know I won’t be betting against him simply because I know how hard he works and how well he assimilates into a new team. He became a leader of this 2011 Wisconsin Badgers team after being an official member of the roster for two months when it takes many quarterbacks two years if they can ever even become a captain. People have really underestimated how difficult and rare it is for him to do what he has done so far this year. Without sounding like a rabid Russell Wilson fanatic, it really is nothing short of incredible, not to mention very, very rare.

5- Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor- As skeptical as I was of Griffin before the season based off of the film I watched of him last year, you can’t help but be impressed by the unbelievable statistical start to the season he has had. I’m still skeptical of the offense he operates in, but it’s very clear that he has developed since the end of last season. Due to his arm strength, improving accuracy, fantastic athleticism as well as his reputation for being a very intelligent, disciplined guy as well as a film junkie NFL talent evaluators and Draftniks alike are going to be salivating considering his potential. He still has strides to make in my opinion, but he has definitely progressed since last year. I’d be a fool to try to ignore that, so even if I still need to see more of him I can at least acknowledge that.

Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden are directing two of the most explosive, high-scoring offenses in the nation.

6- Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma- Landry Jones is a talented quarterback with quality size, arm strength and accuracy. His accuracy becomes more erratic when under pressure, however, and doesn’t seem to react well to pass rushers in his face. That is concerning for a NFL draft prospect, and it is the reason I might have him lower on this list than some other people do. He’s a quality prospect, I’m just not a big fan of him personally. He’s got upside, I’m just not sure he will ever be a quality NFL starter.

7- Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State- Osweiler is a junior with only seven games of NFL experience up until this point, and he has a huge test upcoming against Oregon this Saturday. He’s got a fantastic combination of size and arm strength (reminiscent of Ryan Mallett to be perfectly honest) and his accuracy looks significantly improved over last season. He’s not very mobile, but he has a terrific arm and he’s progressing in the mental aspect of the game. He’s got a boatload of upside, and I’m personally a pretty big fan of his. I’d be surprised if he declared this year, especially since he would have a maximum of 16 games of starting experience at the end of this year, but if he did I would definitely expect him to get drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd round range. But if he comes back I would be surprised if he didn’t end up in the 1^st round discussion for 2013.

Geno Smith is quietly establishing himself as a quality NFL Draft prospect. He may not have had a fantastic game against LSU, but putting up 468 passing yards against that defense is definitely worth mentioning.

8- Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia- Geno Smith was never someone I was particularly high on, but watching him put up 463 yards on LSU’s fantastic defense definitely opened my eyes. He was carving them up with downfield passes and showing off an impressive arm, and even though WVU was losing for most of the game he never stopped coming (even after they had been made into a one-dimensional offensive attack due to their struggling running game and the scoreboard). He wasn’t incredibly efficient as he threw 65 passes and completed only 38 of them (58.5% completion) and threw as many touchdowns as interceptions (2). One of them came on an incredible play by Tyrann Mathieu, but overall I was impressed with Smith. He looks very skinny on film, and I’d be surprised if he declared this season, but he definitely has upside in my opinion.

9- B.J. Coleman, QB, Chattanooga– Coleman definitely has upside, but he needs development. I don’t think he’s ready to step into a starting spot in his first year or two, but he’s definitely worth a mid-round pick. He has a strong arm, quality (but sometimes a bit inconsistent) accuracy, great size and some pocket poise. He just needs coaching and development, but he doesn’t have incredible upside in my opinion.

10- Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State- Weeden is a solid prospect but his age is going to make it hard for him to crack the top three rounds just because of his limited upside. How much better is he really going to get before he’s 30? He will improve with coaching, but at best he has a 5-7 year window as a starter once he gets to the NFL, and that’s assuming he sticks as a starter in the first place which as everyone knows is not guaranteed. He can stretch the field, he’s accurate and has been a key cog in one of the most explosive offenses in college football over the past two years, but his upside is limited due to his age and that makes him a mid-round guy.

11- Ryan Lindley, QB, San Diego State– Lindley is a guy that I identified as a player with upside that needs to improve in some areas. Right now he’s a mid-round guy with plus arm strength but inconsistent ball placement. He has upside due to his combination of solid size, quality arm strength and his athleticism but his accuracy is only above average at this point. He has struggled with ball placement as a junior and so far as a senior at times. He has a live arm so he definitely has upside, but if his accuracy doesn’t continue to develop then he won’t live up to his potential. He’s a developmental guy at this point with more upside than most mid-round QB’s.

Kellen Moore doesn't have much arm strength, but his other quality attributes make him draftable in my opinion.

12- Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State- Kellen Moore is an interesting guy because even though he is a smaller guy with very average arm strength I still think he has a shot in the NFL. I wouldn’t peg him as a starter in his first two seasons by any means, but he has quality accuracy, he’s very intelligent, he plays well in pressure situations and he’s got a vast amount of experience. He will have to transition from the spread offense that he has played in at Boise State, but because of his intangibles I don’t think that will be as big of a road block as it is for some spread QB prospects that attempt the same transition. He’s a fourth or fifth round pick in my opinion right now but he’s definitely got the upside to stick in the NFL. I’m not sure he will ever be a quality starter, but with his intelligence I think he can be a back-up QB in the NFL. I’m just not sure he has the arm strength to threaten defenses downfield and that can spell disaster at the NFL level.

13- Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State- Cousins is a guy I’ve been paying attention to since he was splitting snaps at QB with Keith Nichol as a sophomore and while he is definitely a NFL prospect I’m not as high on him as I thought I might have been. He hasn’t progressed like I was hoping he would and while he has the potential to stick in the NFL I would not bet on him being a quality NFL starter right now.

14- Chandler Harnish, QB, Northern Illinois- Harnish showed some ability when I watched him last year and while I haven’t had a chance to see him this year I definitely think he can stick in the NFL. I would like to see more consistent accuracy and ball placement from him before I would project him as a potential starter in the NFL, but I haven’t seen him play this year so I can’t speak to his progression from his junior to senior year yet.

15- Nick Foles, QB, Arizona- Foles is a prospect that you seem to either really like or completely dislike. I am personally not very high on him and I think that people putting 1^st, 2^nd or even 3^rd round grades on him are vastly overrating him. He’s got good size and arm strength, and he’s accurate on short throws as well as medium throws at times, but the offense he plays in makes him look better than I think he really is. I’m definitely not high on him, but his size, arm strength, experience and production should get him drafted. I just don’t think it will be nearly as early as some people think.

Preliminary Brock Osweiler Scouting Report

Preliminary Scouting Report:

Brock Osweiler has a fantastic combination of size, arm strength and accuracy. He has great tools, he just needs more starting experience so he can continue to develop.

Overview: Brock Osweiler stepped into the void left at QB thanks to Steven Threet’s concussion issues last year and he flashed intriguing potential throwing for 797 yards, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions on 109 passing attempts last season. He started hot this season as well and currently has thrown for 1,352 yards on 117/172 passing (68% completion with 7.9 yards per attempt), 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He also has 66 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. He has really demonstrated a lot of potential this year as he has helped upset both Missouri and USC, two pretty established programs. Like the developing Arizona State team Osweiler still has to learn how to finish games and finish teams off, but they have flashed the upside to win their division and compete for the Pac-12 title, especially since they have already beaten their main competition in USC. Osweiler has a lot to do with that emergence.

Size: Osweiler has fantastic size for a quarterback. He is listed at 6’8”, 240 pounds and his size is reminiscent of Ryan Mallett’s size from a year ago.

Arm Strength: Osweiler’s height isn’t the only thing that is reminiscent of Mallett as a prospect. Osweiler might have the strongest arm in the nation now that Mallett has graduated. He has an absolute rocket and he can make absolutely any throw with great zip. He generates a lot of power when he drives through the ball and it really allows him to make some impressive throws even when the timing of the pass isn’t exactly what you would like. He can also put the ball in some really tight spaces because of his pretty quick throwing motion and his strong arm because defensive backs don’t have much time to react to the ball once it is thrown due to the velocity of the throws.

Accuracy: Osweiler’s accuracy was quite surprising to me because I didn’t anticipate him placing the ball as well as he has in all of the games I have watched of him. He was particularly impressive in this aspect against Missouri, but also flashed quality ball placement against Illinois contrary to what you might think looking at his stat line. He throws a good deep ball and does a good job of placing the ball on the correct shoulder of the receiver, but he also throws very accurately into holes in the zone in between multiple defenders and seems to be accurate to all fields as long as he can set and throw. Occasionally he will miss easy throws that he should make without much problem, such as throws into the flat on bubble or tunnel screens. I’m not sure if he is rushing the throw to give the receiver time to make a play before the defense reacts or what, but it happens once or twice a game.

Mechanics: Osweiler’s mechanics are much better than I expected them to be. He has a clean throwing motion that is consistently quick and he drives the ball very well when he releases the ball. He has good footwork when taking snaps from shotgun, but he is almost exclusively a shotgun quarterback which means he will have to develop the ability to make three, five and seven step drops. He steps into the majority of his throws and even flashes the ability to step into a throw even when he knows a hit is coming, which is something that is critical for his progression into a quality NFL starter. He does not fade away from throws as often as I was afraid he might which is good to see.

Osweiler has room to improve when making pre/post snap reads and I would like to see him improve his pocket poise.

Mobility: Osweiler might be a huge quarterback but his mobility isn’t as bad as you might think. His short area quickness is not very impressive, but he does have the ability to make a defender miss in the pocket partially because of his athleticism to avoid him but also because he is just so big and tall that defenders can’t tackle him with a half-assed arm tackle. Thanks to his long strides he can really pick up yardage surprisingly quickly when he is running in a straight line, but he doesn’t change directions very quickly and definitely isn’t a guy you have to scheme against to take away his ability to scramble in that sense. However, he isn’t as much of a statue as you might think he would be at that height.

Pre/Post Snap Reads: This is one place where I think Osweiler needs to improve, but at the same time he only has seven total games of starting experience to this point so he is still developing and learning as a starting quarterback. Regardless, he doesn’t always recognize when blitzes are coming so he doesn’t identify his hot reads, though he does demonstrate the willingness to make checks and audibles at the line of scrimmage which is great to see for a quarterback with such limited starting experience at this point. But he does need to improve his ability to make pre-snap reads at the line of scrimmage, especially since he spends so much time in the shotgun. His post-snap reads are also a bit of a mixed bag because he more than flashes the willingness to go through multiple progressions (which isn’t necessarily typical for a spread offense quarterback) but far too often for my liking he drops his eyes to try to avoid the rush instead of continuing to look downfield. It especially bothers me when he only makes one or maybe two reads and then he drops his eyes and leaves the pocket prematurely when there really isn’t significant pressure that would constitute scrambling outside the pocket. He needs to continue to work on his pre and post snap reads as well as his poise in the pocket. There is potential there, he just needs to continue to develop.

Intangibles: I think Osweiler has pretty good intangibles. As I mentioned earlier I have seen him making checks at the line of scrimmage which is an encouraging sign of football IQ because of how limited his starting experience is. Plus, he has flashed the ability to make pre-snap reads as well as go through multiple progressions, and he tends to make good decisions and doesn’t force a lot of throws into coverage. He’s also fairly reliable late in games, he just hasn’t been on the top of his game late partially because of dropped passes that have killed late drives he has tried to lead. I think he has the ability to be a closer late, and hopefully over the next year and a half he will come into his own in that respect.

Character: I don’t know much about Osweiler’s character or anything like that, but he seems to be a solid leader and his teammates seem to follow him fine. This is something that is nearly impossible to evaluate from an observational perspective since all I can do is watch his games, I can’t actually talk to him and his coaches like NFL scouts can.

Overall: I am a pretty big Osweiler fan. I think he has a ton of upside thanks to his great combination of size, arm strength and accuracy. He’s still developing obviously which is why this is a preliminary scouting report, but I love his upside and I think if he is developed appropriately and coached up he can be a quality starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s got the upside, he just needs to finish the rest of this year and come back for his senior year to continue to get more starting experience before he goes to the NFL. It will be interesting to see how he progresses the rest of the season because he has a lot of upside, but as teams start to figure out some of his tendencies (like dropping his eyes in the face of pressure at times) he may start to struggle a bit. I look forward to seeing how he does the rest of the season because I really think that with him at the helm Arizona State has a chance to represent their division in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Projection: If Osweiler came out this season I think he would be a 3^rd round pick because he has so much potential but he is raw and needs to develop for another two years before he would be ready to start. But if he stays for his senior year and comes out for the 2013 draft I think he has 1^st round potential and if he continues to progress and develop I think that is where he will end up. Quietly he is 6-1 in his career as a starter against some pretty legitimate competition outside of UC Davis to open this season. He’s definitely one to watch, so if you get a chance to see one of his games you should take a look. You’ll marvel at his size, arm strength and accuracy. He’s got the tools, he just needs more experience.

Thanks for reading, hopefully you enjoyed my Brock Osweiler scouting report!

–Tom

NCAA Week 5 Top 25 Picks

South Florida over Pittsburgh

BJ Daniels should have a good game and Pittsburgh struggles with close games. The trouble is, this one might not end up being that close.

South Florida by 13

Texas A&M over Arkansas

Ryan Tannehill had a pretty good game last week in a loss to Oklahoma State, and the Aggies will be looking to rebound against Arkansas just a week after they were thoroughly dominated by Alabama. Both teams really need a win here, but I think Arkansas’ defense will prove problematic against the Aggies.

Texas A&M by 6

Michigan over Minnesota (Potential blow-out)

Denard Robinson should have a big game running and possibly a big game passing against the Gophers who are trying to turn the program around under Jerry Kill. The trouble is the head coach has had trouble with seizures, and there is no way it hasn’t had an impact on his players. Minnesota is simply overmatched in this game, and I see Michigan blowing them out.

Michigan by 24

Illinois over Northwestern

Illinois is a solid team but so is Northwestern. I expect Illinois to win, but don’t sleep on Northwestern. They are well coached and have some talent, plus they never go away. If the Illini let them hang around they could make a late push.

Illinois by 7

LSU over Kentucky (Potential blow-out)

LSU is hitting on all cylinders right now and Kentucky is going to be borderline powerless to stop them. Their defense is the best in the country and their running attack is extremely tough to slow down, much less stop. I see LSU winning in blow-out.

LSU by 24

Boise State over Nevada

Boise State lost this game to Nevada last year in dramatic fashion, but I don’t see Nevada pulling off two in a row. They should be overmatched, and Kellen Moore and company won’t be merciful after what Nevada did to their title hopes last season.

Boise State by 21

Georgia Tech over NC State

Georgia Tech’s running game is absolutely gashing anyone who gets in their way, even my beloved Tar Heels last week, and NC State’s defense isn’t on the same level as North Carolina’s. I expect them to run the ball early and often and control the clock in this game, and I think Georgia Tech should win pretty comfortably.

Georgia Tech by 17

West Virginia over Bowling Green

West Virginia is coming off of a rough loss against LSU, but Geno Smith looked poised and impressive staring into the teeth of the best defense in the nation and actually carved them up to an extent by throwing for 463 yards on 38 of 65 passing (58.5% completion) and two touchdowns and two interceptions. Was it a great game? No, but it was quite good for a developing quarterback against a fantastic defense. WVU should rebound easily against Bowling Green now that they know what their offense is truly capable of.

West Virginia by 28

Baylor over Kansas State

Robert Griffin III has been absolutely amazing this year. Through three games he has completed 70 of 82 pass attempts while throwing for 962 yards (11.73 yards per attempt, an insane number), 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. Last season he threw 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 13 games, an impressive statistical season. He is on pace to throw for well over 40 touchdowns at this current pace. It’s hard to imagine him continuing to play this way especially since he is averaging only four incompletions per GAME, but if he keeps playing comparably well to how he has started the season the Baylor Bears will be tough for anyone to beat. I don’t anticipate Kansas State being the team to cool Griffin off, so the Bears should win easily.

Baylor by 21

Auburn over South Carolina (upset)

I think South Carolina is pretty overrated and I think Auburn has a chance to pull off the upset here. Gene Chizik and his Auburn Tigers have a flair for the dramatic and they are tough to beat when you let them hang around. They always seem to make the big play late in the game to keep themselves alive, and they are well coached when it comes to playing from behind late in the game. I love Marcus Lattimore, but I don’t think Steve Spurrier has much faith in Stephen Garcia and I’m not sold on South Carolina’s defense. The game is in South Carolina, but I think Auburn has a great chance to pull off this upset. It will be interesting to see if they manage to do so.

Auburn by 3

TCU over SMU

I think SMU has a small chance of pulling off an upset here, but TCU is the better team overall. It will be interesting to see which way this game goes, but if SMU gets their offense going they could be tough to keep up with. Their running back Zach Line has 463 yards and 11 touchdowns in only four games, and their top receiver Darius Johnson has 27 catches, 398 yards and two scores already. I think TCU will win, but I don’t think it will be as easy as some people might think.

TCU by 7

Clemson over Virginia Tech

This was a really tough game for me to pick. I picked Clemson to upset Florida State last week, but Virginia Tech is extremely tough at home and the Tigers have to cool off EVENTUALLY right? Perhaps, but I don’t think it will be this week. I am high on Virginia Tech’s defense though and I think they have a chance to slow down Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins and the rest of Clemson’s high flying offense in this game. However, what might define the game is how well Logan Thomas and Virginia Tech’s offense is able to play. Thomas has been solid thus far with 761 yards on 60 of 105 passing (57.1% completion) but he has thrown as many touchdowns (4) as interceptions. Clemson is on fire right now, so it will be interesting to see how this game plays out.

Clemson by 7

Texas over Iowa State

The Longhorns lost this game last year and I think they will make sure they show up to this one. Iowa State isn’t a push-over this year, but I think the Longhorns will be too much for them.

Texas by 14

Oklahoma over Ball State

Oklahoma still has a legitimate argument to be the #1 team in the country, so I don’t think they will have too much trouble with Ball State.

Oklahoma by 28

Alabama over Florida

This is going to be a fantastic game. I think Alabama and Florida have the 2^nd and 3^rd best defenses in the country only to LSU, so this is going to be a defensive slug fest if I had to guess. I picked Alabama because I trust their offense more thanks to Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy on the ground. This should be a great, close game though.

Alabama by 10

Wisconsin over Nebraska

This game is going to be fantastic. I have been waiting for this game ever since I heard that Russell Wilson might sign with the Badgers. Wisconsin’s run defense might be problematic against Nebraska, but I think Wisconsin’s offense is more than potent enough to put up points on the Cornhuskers. It should be a great game that is close right until the end, and I can’t wait to see how it unfolds. I do expect Russell Wilson to give the Badgers the push they need to win this game. A year ago I couldn’t have picked Wisconsin, but with Wilson at the helm I expect them to win.

Wisconsin by 7

Stanford over UCLA

Stanford is just too talented and well coached to be slowed down by UCLA.

Stanford by 21

Arizona State over Oregon State

Arizona State’s Brock Osweiler is a player that I am really warming up to, and I expect that he and the Sun Devils won’t have a lot of trouble with the win-less Oregon State Beavers.

Arizona State by 17

I was 16-3 last week, so let’s see how I do this week! Thanks for reading, and enjoy the games!

–Tom

Arizona State-Missouri Prospect Recap

This was a fantastic game. I know I’m very late on posting this write-up, but it’s been a hectic week and I haven’t had a lot of free time. This was a very fun game to watch and it involved a comeback in the fourth quarter after the Sun Devils took a 14 point lead with 14:23 left when Brock Osweiler ran for a 12 yard touchdown. James Franklin saved his best stuff for the 4^th quarter as he delivered both of his touchdown strikes in the 4^th. One was to L’Damian Washington with 12 minutes left in the quarter, and the final strike was to Michael Egnew with 2:50 remaining to tie the score.

Brock Osweiler was the star of this game without question in my opinion, and really burst onto the scene as a prospect as far as I'm concerned. He's shot up my personal quarterback rankings this year, and I can't wait to watch him play the rest of the year.

Brock Osweiler had a great game and he really impressed me. He has a fantastic combination of size (listed at 6’8”, 240 pounds) and arm strength. He’s got an extremely strong arm, perhaps comparable to Ryan Mallett’s. He has terrific zip on throws to all levels, a quality release (though it looks a little like a 3/4 release at times, I haven’t quite pinned down what it is, but it looks a little funny to me every now and then) and good mechanics when he throws the ball. He generates a lot of power when he plants and drives, but doesn’t always spin a clean ball when he releases it. More often than not I would say he does though. He also placed the ball very well in this game and displayed overall great accuracy as evidenced by his 24/32 performance for 353 yards (with an 11 yards per attempt average), three touchdowns and no interceptions. He even had 5 carries, 34 yards and one touchdown rushing despite not having great mobility. He didn’t display consistent poise in the pocket in this game, but he did flash the willingness to take a hit to deliver a throw. He left the pocket prematurely a few times in this game, so that is something to note. Overall I was very impressed with him as a prospect and if he continues to play well he will be one of my top junior quarterbacks behind Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley and Landry Jones. After four games (three against ranked teams- Missouri, Illinois and USC) he is 93/135 (68.9% completion), 1,094 yards, 8 TD’s and 3 INT’s. He also has 94 yards rushing and two touchdowns.

Aaron Pflugrad had a breakout game of sorts against Missouri. He had two touchdowns in the opening game against UC Davis, but he had a huge game against Missouri when he totaled 8 catches, 180 yards (for a 22.5 ypc) and 2 TD’s. I had never seen him play before, but he was definitely the deep ball threat for Osweiler in this game and Missouri just couldn’t seem to keep him from getting behind their secondary. He’s only listed at 5’10”, 184 pounds but he was the playmaker in this game. He really stole the show. It’ll be interesting to see if he continues to be targeted by Osweiler the rest of the season, as after four games he has 22 receptions, 344 yards (15.64 yards per reception) and four touchdowns.

Gerell Robinson had a solid game, but I am not very impressed with his hands. He had a couple drops in this game including one on a potential third down conversion. He has good size for a WR at 6’4”, 222 pounds and a listed 4.58 40 yard dash time. He produced two catches, 66 yards (33 ypc) and 0 TD’s despite a couple drops. He has solid upside as a possession receiver, but if he doesn’t make critical catches on third down it really limits his value as a prospect.

Jamal Miles is a 5’10”, 180 pound WR who does it all for Missouri. In this game he had two carries for 13 yards, six catches for 50 yards and 2 TD’s, and three punt returns for 27 yards. This year he has 16 receptions, 110 yards and three touchdowns receiving. He also has six rushes for 53 yards, five kickoff returns for 169 yards (and one TD), and seven punt returns for 87 yards. He even has a touchdown pass this year (1 pass attempt completed for 35 yards). He even scored the winning touchdown on a swing pass from Brock Osweiler in OT to put the Sun Devils ahead for good. He had a good game even if he had a couple incidents returning punts. He’s very versatile, so it’ll be interesting if he continues to prove his value in so many different phases of the game.

Junior Onyeali is a dynamic, albiet undersized, defensive end. He's underrated because of his size, but he has the potential to be extremely disruptive as he continues to develop.

Junior Onyeali is a very undersized DE on Arizona State. He’s listed at 5’11”, 244 pounds which is very small for a defensive end, but I couldn’t help but be impressed by his burst off the ball and his speed off the edge. I was impressed with him as a freshman and he flashed the same ability as a sophomore against Missouri. He hasn’t been producing at the same level statistically, but he was able to create relatively consistent pressure against Missouri. He definitely has upside even if he’s undersized.

Jamaar Jarrett is a senior defensive end on Arizona State. He’s listed at 6’5”, 260 pounds and while his production has been more limited as a senior he had 40 total tackles (23 solo), 10.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks as a junior. He doesn’t have a lot of burst off the ball or off the edge if I remember, but he is pretty solid against the run. It’ll be interesting to see how he does in the remainder of the games I watch of him.

Vontaze Burfict is one of the top linebacker prospects in the country because of his great combination of size and athletic ability. He’s listed at 6’3”, 250 pounds and has a listed 40 yard dash time of 4.67. He packs a serious punch as a hitter and is an effective blitzer, and plays with a lot of aggressiveness as a football player. The problem is, sometimes that aggression spills over on and off the field (such as when he punched one of his teammates in the locker room, or when he draws unnecessary late hit penalties). I’m not sold on his instincts and ability to read and react to plays yet, nor am I confident in his ability in coverage. However, he does play the run well and he is very effective when he can flow to the ball, play downhill or attack blockers. He’s strong and aggressive enough to be a very effective linebacker.

Burfict is an intimidating presence at the heart of Arizona State's defense, but I don't know how good his instincts are, how effective he is in coverage, and he has a tendency to draw unnecessary penalties.

Shelly Lyons is an outside linebacker on Arizona State who’s relatively undersized for a linebacker even though he is 6’2”, but he only weighs 228 pounds. He’s got ability and he’s a good tackler, and he seems to flow to the ball well. I’m not sold on his ability to shed blocks, but he gets pretty good depth in his drops and seems comfortable in coverage. He actually recorded an interception and returned it for a touchdown this past weekend against USC. He’s an under the radar senior in my opinion, so it’ll be interesting to see how he progresses this year.

I’m not sure how good of a game he had because it’s hard to watch the secondary due to ESPN’s camera angles, but Eddie Elder is a safety on Arizona State that had a productive season last year despite only being 5’10”. He’s another under the radar guy to keep an eye on, though he’s had a relatively slow start to the season statistically.

James Franklin is the sophomore quarterback on Missouri that has stepped up to replace Blaine Gabbert. He isn’t a very good passer, but he had a productive game completing 26/42 pass attempts, throwing for 319 yards (with a 7.6 YPA), plus 2 TD’s and no interceptions. He also had 27 carries, 84 yards (3.1 ypa) and 1 TD on the ground. He led Missouri in rushing attempts against Arizona State, and he seems to have a pretty strong arm, but I wasn’t impressed with his mechanics or his pocket poise. I don’t think he has a ton of upside as a passing quarterback (like a number of past Missouri quarterbacks excluding Gabbert) but he can still be an effective college starter for them due to his arm strength and his ability to gain yardage on the ground.

Shelly Lyons is an underrated linebacker, but I was impressed with him when I watched him last year and he continues to flash ability as a senior. Keep an eye on him.

Henry Josey is Missouri’s very athletic running back. He’s listed at 5’10”, 190 pounds but he’s got a lot of speed to make plays in open space. He had very limited touches in this game as he only had nine carries and two catches, but produced 94 yards rushing (a 10.4 ypc average) and 51 yards receiving. In four games he has produced more yards rushing than his freshman year (533 yards versus 437) and is averaging an absurd 12.4 yards per carry. He also has four touchdowns after producing five as a freshman. He also has five receptions, 65 yards versus only four receptions for 19 yards a year ago. I really like him as a potential 3^rd down back and he’s used as the complement to James Franklin who generally gets far more carries.

Marcus Lucas, a sophomore receiver on Missouri, intrigues me because of his size (6’5”, 205 lbs) and because he had a pretty big game against Arizona State’s secondary. He had 5 receptions, 97 yards, and one touchdown in the game, and his receptions were critical ones for a touchdown or some big first down conversions. He’s definitely a guy to keep an eye on since Missouri likes to spread the ball around and he’s a great red zone threat for them.

T.J. Moe is a smaller, squattier looking receiver who is listed at 5’11”, 195 pounds. He might not be the tallest, the fastest or the quickest, but he’s got great hands and he rarely drops anything. He looks like a running back running routes and I’m not sure he is going to be able to create consistent separation in the NFL, but if you’ve got hands like he does you can find a way to stick in the NFL somehow. He’s tough too so while he is probably a 4^th round grade this year he could definitely have a shot at getting drafted in the 2013 draft after he graduates. He had 92 receptions, 1,045 yards and 6 TD’s last year and was one of Gabbert’s more reliable targets as a sophomore. He probably won’t replicate those numbers this year, but that won’t change the fact that he’s got great hands.

L’Damian Washington hasn’t gotten a ton of looks this year but he has good size (6’4”, 185 pounds) and has been good for vertical plays despite only having eight catches on the season. He has produced 149 yards (18.63 yard per catch average) and two touchdowns on those catches, including a big score against Arizona State. He’s only a sophomore, but he’s got good size and has flashed good hands. Missouri is deep at receiver this year but it will be fun to see Washington and Lucas step up as they move up the depth chart. They’ve got a lot of potential and they’ll be developing right along with James Franklin since they are all sophomores.

Michael Egnew is without a doubt the best senior tight end in my opinion, and he and Orson Charles of Georgia are 1 and 1a in this potential 2012 Draft class.

Michael Egnew is one of the best TE prospects in the draft despite limited targets this year he continues to prove it. He’s a great red-zone threat thanks to his 6’6”, 245 pound frame and he’s got very good hands. He’s not the best blocker, but he is developing a bit in this area. But he’s athletic enough to be split out like a super-sized receiver, and he can create enough separation to attack the seam. As his blocking continues to improve he will become a more and more complete tight end, but he is definitely one of the best draft-eligible tight ends in the draft along with Orson Charles from Georgia.

Jacquies Smith was the DE playing opposite Aldon Smith last year, and he had a good year producing 35 tackles, 10 TFL, 5.5 sacks, one fumble recovery, three pass deflections, two forced fumbles and one blocked kick/punt. He has good size (6’4”, 250) and has shown speed off the edge, but he just hasn’t produced at the same level without Smith opposite him. He’s only been healthy for two of their four games this year, but he has to pick it up if he’s going to prove that his good season last year wasn’t just a product of teams ignoring him to try to deal with Smith.

Sorry this post took me so long to get done, but there were a lot of things to touch on and I haven’t had much time. It feels good to have it done, and hopefully you enjoyed reading it.

–Tom

NCAA Top 25 Picks Post

Here is a post where I make some picks for the games the top 25 teams are playing for the week. I’ll try to do this every week, but I might not always have time. I’ll track them to see how well (or poorly) I do over the course of the season. Enjoy!

Week Four NCAA Picks Post:

Oklahoma over Missouri

Analysis: Oklahoma’s offense and defense are both very good, and Missouri didn’t prove they could win against Arizona State, losing 37-30 in OT. James Franklin will probably struggle to carve up the Oklahoma defense like he did the ASU secondary, and I wonder just how much pressure their defense will be able to apply to Landry Jones. Jones will make poor throws when he has pressure in his face, so that will be the key to hanging in on this game. The problem is, I don’t think Missouri’s secondary can hold up consistently if the Tigers are forced to blitz to create pressure.

Oklahoma by 17

LSU over West Virginia

Analysis: LSU’s defense is the best in the country as far as I’m concerned. They were tested right off the bat against Oregon and stood very tall. I’ve never seen a defensive tackle rotation like theirs in all my years of watching football. I believe that they have four starting caliber defensive tackles, and they arguably have three starting caliber cornerbacks in Morris Claiborne, Tyrann Mathieu and Tharold Simon. Claiborne is a junior and Mathieu and Simon are both sophomores, but they might be the best trio of cornerbacks in the country. LSU’s run defense and pass defense are both very good and their defense is very fast, and I think they are going to cause a lot of problems for Geno Smith and his offensive counterparts. On defense, West Virginia will have to pressure Jarrett Lee, but also stop LSU from establishing the running game because they love to run play action after establishing the run (and they’re quite good at it). Without the play action fake LSU struggles to threaten downfield due to Lee’s lack of arm strength. However, I think WVU will struggle to take away the run game, end up loading the box, and therefore allowing Rueben Randle, Odell Beckham and Deagnelo Peterson to get behind the secondary.

LSU by 16

Alabama over Arkansas

This one was tough for me to call. Alabama probably has the #2 defense in the country behind LSU (at least as far as I’m concerned, but it’s definitely close) and they have a quarterback with limited experience as well in AJ McCarron. Luckily, they have two talented running backs to take the pressure off of him in Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy. Marquis Maze has stepped up as I thought he would and has 15 receptions, 186 yards and 1 TD in the first three contests. I think Alabama will be able to move the ball on offense against Arkansas’ defense, but I think that Alabama will be able to slow down the Razorbacks offensive attack. I love their WR’s, led by Cobi Hamilton as of now (13 receptions, a team leading 252 yards, 19.4 average per catch and 1 TD) and Tyler Wilson has stepped in to fill the void left by Ryan Mallett like I thought he would. However, Alabama’s defense is vastly better than Missouri State, New Mexico, Troy (the three teams he has faced this year) and much better than Auburn’s defense that struggled mightily to stop big, physically gifted receivers every time they matched up against them. Arkansas won’t get shut out by any means, but Alabama is going to be Tyler Wilson’s first real taste of what it’s like to play against a SEC caliber defense, and I don’t think he’s going to enjoy it.

Alabama by 13

Boise State over Tulsa

This really isn’t a hard pick in my opinion. Boise State’s defensive line is fierce and I expect Billy Winn and company to be in GJ Kinne’s face for the majority of this game. Boise State’s offense is still clicking thanks to Kellen Moore, so I expect this to be a relatively easy win. Kinne has a chance to show talent evaluators what he can do though, as his team is clearly overmatched.

Boise State by 21

Wisconsin over South Dakota

This shouldn’t be much of a contest either, as Wisconsin’s offense has the potential to be one of the best in the Big 10 if it isn’t already the best. Their running game and play action game will be way too much for South Dakota to handle, and hopefully they have continued to work on their run defense. If they don’t have it tuned up soon they will have a lot of trouble stopping Nebraska.

Wisconsin by 21

Texas A&M over Oklahoma State

This one was very tough for me to call as well. This could very easily go either way considering it is a rare battle between the #7 and #8 teams in the country. Oklahoma State’s offense is a juggernaut still led by Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, but Weeden has thrown 6 interceptions already this season, so that is a concerning stat for OSU fans. However, Joseph Randle has stepped up to replace Kendall Hunter very nicely, running for 378 yards and 7 TD’s on only 62 carries (6.1 average). Ryan Tannehill is a dangerous quarterback though, and he’s got a number of weapons to work with. I’m not sure which defense is better than the other, but I do think that Texas A&M will miss Von Miller rushing the passer in this game. However, Oklahoma State’s defense is traditionally their weakness, so that is why I had to go with Texas A&M. I will be at an away game during this contest and I am very angry that I will miss it. It should be a great game. But I had to give A&M the slight edge.

Texas A&M by 6

Nebraska over Wyoming

Not a very tough call on this one. Nebraska should win this game easily even if Taylor Martinez doesn’t dazzle as a passer.

Nebraska by 28

Oregon over Arizona

This one wasn’t as easy for me to pick as I thought it might be. Oregon has a pretty good defense, but Arizona can move the football pretty well. I’m still confident in Oregon, but Nick Foles has a habit of surprising people when they sleep on him. I don’t think Oregon will take him for granted though especially after losing a tough one to LSU in Cowboys Stadium, and that’s why I think they will end up with a big Pac-12 win here.

Oregon by 14

Clemson over Florida State (Upset)

Clemson is absolutely on fire right now, and this is the worst time for Florida State to be playing them. This isn’t a guarantee by any means, but Clemson’s offense is firing on all cylinders and Florida State didn’t get consistent pressure on Landry Jones last week. Clemson’s offensive line isn’t nearly the equivalent of Oklahoma’s, but they have enough weapons on offense to at least make this a plausible upset. I don’t think Clemson has the defense to keep them in the game if they can’t score, so unless their defense steps up and slows FSU down they are going to make me look foolish for this pick.

Clemson by 7

South Carolina over Vanderbilt

This isn’t as easy of a pick as I thought it would be, especially since South Carolina is in a state of flux and Vanderbilt is undefeated for the first time in recent memory after three weeks. I don’t think Vanderbilt will be able to hold off South Carolina, but stranger things have happened. If it was ever going to happen, I think it would happen now. Steve Spurrier doesn’t seem to have much faith in Stephen Garcia and even though they have one of the best backs in the country in Marcus Lattimore you just never know what will happen in the SEC. I don’t expect Vanderbilt to pull it off, but this is one I would watch as a POSSIBLE upset.

South Carolina by 10

Virginia Tech over Marshall

Analysis: This shouldn’t be much of a challenge for Virginia Tech, but it should be a good tune-up game for Logan Thomas. I think he has tons of upside, and it’ll be interesting to see how he develops throughout the season.

Virginia Tech by 17

Florida over Kentucky

Analysis: Kentucky isn’t a terrible team, but Florida’s defense is vastly better than I expected it to be even without Janoris Jenkins. Chris Rainey really impressed me last week and if he can stay healthy I think he could really improve his draft stock. I’m pretty high on Jonathan Bostic, Jaye Howard and Dominique Easley on their defense, so I’m excited to see them play against Kentucky again. I don’t anticipate the Gators having a lot of trouble in this game.

Florida by 14

Baylor over Rice

Analysis: Robert Griffin has been absolutely LETHAL this year. He’s 41/49 for 624 yards (83.7% completion), 12.74 yards per attempts and he has 8 touchdowns and no interceptions. On top of that, he has 116 yards rushing. Kendall Wright has been huge for Baylor with 20 receptions (14 more than the next receiver), 312 yards (184 yards more than the next receiver) and 3 TD’s. I don’t think Rice has much of a chance to slow Griffin down. The first time he might slow down in my estimation would be October 15^th against A&M once they get into the real meat of their schedule. I haven’t been able to watch much of him, but it will be interesting to go back and watch him play to see if he has corrected any of the things I said he needed to work on in my preseason scouting report.

Baylor by 21

South Florida over UTEP

Analysis: South Florida is having one of their best seasons in recent memory, at least to start the season, and BJ Daniels seems to be maturing rather nicely. As long as he continues to develop the sky is the limit for USF, and I don’t think UTEP will have much of a chance to slow them down this week.

South Florida by 17

TCU over Portland State

Analysis: TCU lost a tough one against Baylor in week one, but they seemed to have bounced back in recent weeks. Portland State shouldn’t pose much of a threat, even with an inexperienced quarterback still getting a feel for the starting role.

TCU by 17

Michigan over San Diego State

Analysis: Brady Hoke welcomes his former team into the Big House as the Head Coach of the Wolverines this week as pretty heavy favorites. Denard Robinson isn’t my favorite quarterback but he is incredibly fast and I’m not sure SDSU has the speed to keep up with him in this game. Junior Hemingway has really stepped up this year (even though he looks like a TE rumbling downfield sometimes on go routes). It’ll be interesting to see how Michigan does in this game, but I would be pretty surprised if they botched this game after clawing their way into the top 25.

Michigan by 17

USC over Arizona State

Analysis: Before the game against Illinois last week I might have picked Arizona State in this one, but Brock Osweiler is still developing and even though the Sun Devils had a huge win against Missouri a couple weeks ago I don’t think they are ready to knock off USC. USC has a big chip on its shoulder because of the bowl ban that was placed on them, and I think they will approach this game with something to prove even though they are favored.

USC by 10

Illinois over Western Michigan

Analysis: This shouldn’t be a challenging game for Illinois. Western Michigan isn’t a bad program, but I don’t think they have the firepower to stick with Illinois on either side of the ball. They just fought their way into the top 25, so I don’t think they’ll get upset after just earning their #24 ranking.

North Carolina over Georgia Tech (Upset)

Analysis: I have to admit that I am a UNC fan, so that may have had something to do with this pick (which really isn’t much of an upset, though technically it is). I think UNC’s offense can score on Georgia Tech’s defense, and I think UNC’s defense is fast enough and disciplined enough to slow down Georgia Tech’s option offense that absolutely dominated Kansas last week. Georgia Tech is flying high, but UNC usually plays them pretty well and they are talented enough to pull this off. I really wish I could see this game, but I will be traveling and working while it goes on.

Those are my picks for this week. Hopefully you enjoy them and I look forward to seeing some good football this week. Thanks for reading!

–Tom

Saturday Games to Watch:

Saturday:
-West Virginia-Maryland:
I am excited to watch this game because there are a couple intriguing prospects (notably Bruce Irvin for West Virginia) that I’d like to get a look at, plus I think Danny O’Brien has it in him to potentially pull an upset. I haven’t watched West Virginia at all to get a sense for how they are doing this year, but I was incredibly impressed with O’Brien against Miami. He’s got a lot of upside and I expect him to play well today if his OL can keep him upright. Geno Smith is a quality QB too though, he just doesn’t project to the NFL as well as I think O’Brien does. I’m excited to see how this game plays out, and if my hunch is correct it could go down to the wire.

-Tennessee-Florida:
I am very excited to see this game because I think Tennessee can pull off the upset. It’s easy to look at this game and say “Oh, the 16^th best team in the country against an unranked team? I’ll take Florida” but Tennessee is no slouch and if they can protect Tyler Bray he can carve up very talented defenses (see the Tennessee-UNC bowl game from last year. Might not be an “SEC” caliber defense, but still very talent laden). I want to see how John Brantley does as well, plus Florida always has talented players on defense that I’d like to see. Malik Jackson, a DE on Tennessee, was a player on my list of potential break-out players so I would like to see how he plays.

-Michigan State-Notre Dame:
I still can’t stop laughing at people who keeps saying “Notre Dame is a good team and I really like their squad” when they have started 0-2 and proved that their preseason top 25 ranking was completely unjustified, at least in my opinion. While they played a good game against Michigan, the Wolverines are not on the same level as the Spartans are. I have a hard time believing Notre Dame will be able to slow down their running game and Kirk Cousins is one of the best senior quarterbacks in the country. I think Notre Dame has a chance to give them a run for their money, but I don’t think they have it in them to pull off the upset.

-Virginia-North Carolina
Both are 2-0 this season and North Carolina passed their first test beating Rutgers in a close game last weekend. I don’t have very high hopes for them with the loss of Butch Davis and a new, young QB in Bryn Rynner (though I do like him). This is a big game for them though and if they can pull it off it would be huge for them to start out 3-0 in spite of all the turmoil the program has been through the last two years.

-Arizona State-Illinois
Arizona State dazzled everyone who watched the Thursday Night game about a week or so ago when they upset Missouri on national television in an overtime game. Brock Osweiler stole the show as far as I’m concerned as he was incredibly impressive and played an extremely efficient and effective game for ASU. He demonstrated a very strong arm, was placing the ball very well, and made only two throws that I identified as poor decisions or bad throws. Illinois is on the upswing in my opinion with Nathan Scheelhaase returning for his second season as a starter. I think Arizona State has the upper hand in this one, but it should be a pretty good game since Illinois is at home.

-Ohio State-Miami
This is a tough game for me to call. I actually trust Jacory Harris more than I trust any of Ohio State’s QB’s, but that isn’t saying much considering the fact that I think Stephen Morris should start for the ‘Canes. Regardless, Miami has an insane level of talent (especially on defense) even with some of their suspensions that have rocked the program. Ohio State is very talented as well, but I think they have demonstrated that they are not an elite or even a very good team by any means in their first two games. Miami can win this game, it’s just a question of who wins the turnover battle in my opinion. If Harris avoids interceptions and moves Miami down the field methodically with a few big plays, Miami has a great shot at winning. If Ohio State can get a few downfield plays and avoid turnovers, plus create them on the defensive side of the ball, they could win this game. It will be interesting to see which way it goes, but there’s a part of me that wants to pick Miami…

-Oklahoma-Florida State
This game is an extremely tough one for me to call. It’s almost impossible to bet against Oklahoma but Florida State is a very talented team. I like what E.J. Manuel brings to the table a lot, and while I like Landry Jones I don’t think he is a 1^st round QB because of his issues dealing with interior pressure and because of his propensity for interceptions last season. This is going to be a critical litmus test for both programs as Oklahoma has been taking flak lately for not being able to win big games and Florida State is trying to prove that the “old” Florida State that used to battle for conference supremacy with Miami is back. It’s hard to bet against Oklahoma, but I am hoping for a great game unlike the match up last year in Norman where Oklahoma blew the doors off FSU.

-Stanford-Arizona
This might not seem like that big of a game, but Arizona has a tendency to pull off upsets and while I don’t think Nick Foles is anything more than a mid-round NFL QB prospect he can definitely sling it, especially in Arizona’s offense. He has been very efficient to start the season and while Stanford is clearly the better team they should try to avoid getting into a shootout with Arizona, because that’s the kind of game they want to play. I expect Stanford to win, but I also expect Arizona to give them a bit of a scare during the course of this game.

Thanks for reading and enjoy all the games today! There should be some exciting ones as usual.

–Tom