I know I’m posting this late, but check my Twitter I DID pick the Browns prior to the Thursday kickoff. We’ll see if I can get on a roll this week.
Saints over Bears
Patriots over Bengals
Packers over Lions
Chiefs over Titans
Seahawks over Colts
Rams over Jaguars
Dolphins over Ravens
Giants over Eagles
Cardinals over Panthers
Broncos over Cowboys
49ers over Texans
Chargers over Raiders
Falcons over Jets
Hey guys,
I was absolutely TERRIBLE picking games last week. I went an abysmal 6-10, one of the worst weeks for me picking NFL games in a long time. I was off on SO many games, that was extremely embarrassing. Also, sorry I didn’t get to my regular NFL Quick Hits post this week. Just ran out of time and have been trying to catch up on scouting. Anyway, it’s time to rebound this week! Here are my picks:
San Francisco over St. Louis: The 49ers have been DREADFUL the last two weeks and St. Louis has a talented defense, but I think the 49ers will get back on track on offense this week and Kaepernick shouldn’t be as bad as he has been the last two games. Bradford will have a test against the 49ers defense, but I think San Fran wins this one to get back to .500.
Baltimore over Buffalo: I was surprised the Ravens beat the Texans last week, but I think they can handle Buffalo right now. If they can get Ray Rice going they should be able to win a close one here.
Cincinnati over Cleveland: The Bengals are hands down the better team so even though they have to go on the road I think Andy Dalton and the Bengals come out with a win here even though the Browns defense is legit.
Chicago over Detroit: I doubt many people predicted these two teams would have one combined loss heading into this game, but Jay Cutler looks great and he may be in for a shootout against Matt Stafford and the Lions. I’ll take Cutler in that match-up, but this will be a huge test for that supposedly improved Chicago offensive line.
Kansas City over New York Giants: The Giants are in complete disarray and Eli Manning is going to have a hard time getting on track against a tough Kansas City defense. The Chiefs offense may not be explosive but they aren’t making mistakes so I expect them to win this game.
Pittsburgh over Minnesota: This game could really go either way, and now that I haven’t picked the Vikings I expect Adrian Peterson to go into beast mode and take over this game. It should be a pretty sloppy game overall, but one of these teams has to win right?
Arizona over Tampa Bay: The Bucs are starting Mike Glennon for the first time this week and I think they are going to have some problems getting him on the same page with his receivers, not to mention Arizona’s defense still has plenty of talent even if they don’t have Ray Horton anymore. The Cardinals offense hasn’t been playing up to my expectations yet, but they might get on track this week on the road.
Indianapolis over Jacksonville: Andrew Luck.
Seattle over Houston: The Texans haven’t impressed me much yet this year, but this should be a hard fought defensive game. I’ll take Russell Wilson over Matt Schaub in that kind of game any day.
New York Jets over Tennessee: I’ve been impressed with how Geno Smith has handled himself so far, and I’m also surprised that Tennessee is 2-1, but here we are. The Jets defense is still a quality unit even in spite of Kyle Wilson’s melt-down last week, so I’m going with the Jets this week.
Denver over Philadelphia: Philadelphia has an explosive offense, but so does Denver and their defense is vastly better. Peyton Manning should continue his record setting start to the year against the Eagles overmatched defense. If he has less than four touchdowns by the end of this game I will be surprised.
Washington over Oakland: I keep picking the Redskins and they keep losing, but I think this is the week they get a win. That defense hasn’t been good so far, but RGIII and that offense have to get on track at some point don’t they?
Dallas over San Diego: The Cowboys have really surprised me so far this year, and while the Chargers have been in some close games I think the Cowboys have the distinct advantage here. We’ll see if I’m right.
Atlanta over New England: I’m definitely nervous about this game, but Atlanta is a tough out at home no matter what injuries they’re dealing with. They were not good in the 2nd half last week on the road against Miami, but I think they have a legit chance to win this game since New England isn’t at full strength and they have to go into the Dome.
New Orleans over Miami: The Dolphins won a close one against the Falcons at home, but traveling into the Superdome is a whole ‘nother animal. The Saints are playing better on both sides of the ball than I anticipated this early, so I think the Saints are going to come out on top in this one.
Overall Pick Record: 15-16
Hey guys, sorry I didn’t have time to get my weekly picks post up last week. I just moved back to Minnesota so now that I am settling in hopefully I will be able to get into a groove with all of these weekly posts that I want to do. So, without further ado, here are my NFL Weekly Picks!
Eagles over Chiefs- I think the Eagles’ offense will be too much for the Chiefs to slow down, but it may come down to whether or not the Eagles defense can stop anyone. Thus far the answer to that question is no. Still, I’m going with Chip Kelly and the home team Eagles in this match-up, especially since the Chiefs have Dunta Robinson on their roster.
Packers over Bengals- The Bengals got a solid win against the Steelers last week but the Packers offense looked borderline unstoppable last week against the Redskins. The Bengals defense is a significantly better unit, but I think the Packers will be able to put up enough points to win this one. If Andy Dalton plays well he could make things interesting though, and I’m not sold on the Packers defense yet. Still, it’s tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers in this match-up even on the road.
Rams over Cowboys- This might surprise some people, but the Rams are a good football team and they gave my Falcons a run for their money last week. The Cowboys couldn’t quite figure out the Kansas City Chiefs, and while the ‘Boys have a lot of talent on offense the Rams are a talented defensive football team that I think has a chance to match-up with the Cowboys on offense. Of course, if Dez Bryant goes off for 180 yards and a touchdown like Julio Jones did last week then I would be completely wrong on that. Still, I have a feeling the Rams will play well in this game and I think they can beat Tony Romo and the Cowboys on the road.
Chargers over Titans- I’m realizing I’m picking a lot of road teams here so far, but I think the Chargers are the better football team in this match-up and it’s tough not to go with Philip Rivers over Jake Locker here. If Locker can pass accurately and use his legs effectively they could give the Chargers defense some problems, but most of us know the likelihood of both of those things happening consistently for four quarters is not likely.
Vikings over Browns- This would have been a more interesting game prior to the Trent Richardson trade, and there is something funny about the Browns making this trade with the Colts just days before they travel up to Minnesota to play the Vikings given that the Vikings are the team that traded down with Cleveland to allow them to move up to number three overall and select Richardson in the first place. The Browns offense has been struggling even with Richardson in the lineup, and it’s hard to imagine them being better without him even with Josh Gordon returning from suspension. The Browns do have a good defense though, so I expect both teams to score less than 20 points. The Vikings have the offensive advantage in this match-up though thanks to Adrian Peterson and a solid game from Christian Ponder, Greg Jennings, Kyle Rudolph and Jerome Simpson should be enough to win this one for the purple. However, it is worth mentioning that this is the kind of game the Vikings traditionally find a way to inexplicably lose.
Patriots over Buccaneers- The Buccaneers aren’t in great shape right now and while the Patriots have barely managed to defeat two rookie quarterbacks in consecutive weeks I don’t think Tom Brady and that offense are going to stay out of synch for more than a couple weeks. That should play to the Bucs advantage this week, but I don’t think it will be enough to get them a victory.
Saints over Cardinals- Originally I had the Cardinals winning this game, but it’s tough to travel into the Superdome and get a victory, particularly since the Saints defense looks significantly better through two weeks than it ever did last season. Carson Palmer has reinvigorated the Cardinals offense, and their defense is still respectable despite the loss of defensive coordinator Ray Horton, but I don’t think it will be enough to go into the Saints’ house and beat Drew Brees on his home turf.
Redskins over Lions- The Lions have shown plenty of flashes through the first two weeks, but I think they are going to come up short against a Redskins team that will likely be very motivated and focused after starting 0-2. It remains to be seen if the ‘Skins defense can get on track, but going up against the Eagles and the Packers in the first two weeks isn’t exactly a fair barometer for a defense, especially since they were essentially the NFL’s guinea pigs against Chip Kelly and his up-tempo offensive scheme. I think the Redskins will be motivated and hungry this week, so I’m giving them the edge over the Lions.
Giants over Panthers- I definitely didn’t expect the Giants to start the season out 0-2, but if Eli Manning can’t stop throwing interceptions they may be in for a long year. However, I am well aware that not all of those turnovers are his fault and I expect he and the Giants to get back on track against the Panthers. It would be really nice if David Wilson would get his act together and stop fumbling the ball, but the addition of Brandon Jacobs back into the fold should help provide at least a little stability in the running game. Maybe Cam Newton and the Panthers will surprise me, but I think the Giants are going to be motivated after starting 0-2 just like the Redskins are. I’m not sure if I can say the same thing about the Panthers yet or not.
Texans over Ravens- The Ravens offense has been ineffective thus far this season and I don’t anticipate them getting back on track against the talented Texans defense. If Andre Johnson can play the Ravens will get to see the Texans explosive combination of Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Andre Johnson AND DeAndre Hopkins who was one of my favorite wide receivers in last year’s loaded draft class. He caught the game-winning touchdown last week against the Titans, so I think the Texans are ready to beat the Ravens on the road this week.
Dolphins over Falcons- It pains me to do this, but the Falcons got way too banged up last week to go on the road and beat the Dolphins in my opinion. I think Ryan Tannehill is about to go off, and Lamar Miller may have a big day as well. Not only that, but Brent Grimes is a sure bet to pick off Matt Ryan in this game and I just don’t think the Falcons will be able to overcome Roddy White not being at 100%, Steven Jackson being out (though Jason Snelling will hopefully get a lot of touches), Kroy Biermann being out for the year, Bradie Ewing being out for the year, AND Sean Weatherspoon being out until Week 11. That’s a lot to replace and account for in one week, and while I think they will be able to survive those set-backs long term I’m not sure they can get away with it this week, so I give the advantage to the Dolphins at home.
Bills over Jets- In the battle of rookie quarterbacks EJ Manuel and Geno Smith I’ve got to give Manuel and the Bills the edge in this one. The Jets defense is still a quality unit despite the departure of Darrelle Revis, but Geno Smith made some questionable decisions and poorly executed throws in the elements against New England last week, and I have been shocked by how well EJ Manuel has been playing thus far. The Bills coaching staff has done a great job managing him thus far, and I trust Nathaniel Hackett to gameplan well more than I trust Marty Mornhinweg to do the same, so I am going with the Bills in this one. May the best rookie QB win. I must say, I was shocked and critical of the Manuel pick at 16 overall, but defeating Geno Smith (who I expected to come off the board first of all the quarterbacks) would be a pretty big vindication for EJ Manuel and the entire Bills organization. It would also make me look stupid, so that’s probably why it will happen.
49ers over Colts- This is an interesting one and it will be worth monitoring just how involved Trent Richardson will be in this game given that he is unfamiliar with the system and has no chemistry with the team at all, but the 49ers are the better squad and are likely very pissed off after the way they lost that game to division rival and offseason Cold War opponent Seattle on Sunday Night. The 49ers should come out firing and it will take a terrific performance from Andrew Luck to leave Candlestick with a victory.
Seahawks over Jaguars- #BecauseJaguars and #AllRussellWilsonEverything
Bears over Steelers- I thought Marc Trestman might give the Bears offense a tune-up and he appears to have done just that, and it makes me happy to see Jay Cutler playing well. The Steelers offense is completely devoid of playmaking at this point and I don’t anticipate they will be able to take advantage of the Bears defense enough to come away with a victory even at home.
Broncos over Raiders- The Broncos are playing some terrific football right now and they are looking especially sharp on the offensive side of the ball so far. They simply have more talent than the Raiders do at this point, though I think Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden may give the Broncos defense a few headaches. It would be a truly fantastic upset if the Raiders were able to come away with a victory against the Broncos on the road, I just don’t see it happening.
Thanks for reading, hopefully I do better this week than I did during the openers. Enjoy the games this weekend!
–Tom
Current 2013 Pick Record: 9-6
Here are my predictions for Week 1 of the NFL Season. Enjoy!
New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals over Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns over Miami Dolphins
Detroit Lions over Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts over Oakland Raiders
New Orleans Saints over Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers over Tennessee Titans
Seattle Seahawks over Carolina Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs over Jacksonville Jaguars
St. Louis Rams over Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers
New York Giants over Dallas Cowboys
Washington Redskins over Philadelphia Eagles
Houston Texans over San Diego Chargers
We’ll see how I do, I obviously didn’t get a prediction in on the Denver-Baltimore game in time, but hopefully I’ll have time to do this every week during the season so I can see how I do over the year. Enjoy the first week of games!
–Tom
I’m going to be traveling on Sunday morning en route to the East-West Shrine Game so I am going to make all of my picks today. We’ve got four intriguing match-ups going on this weekend, so it will be interesting to see how they shake out.
Denver-Baltimore:
As much as I want to see Ray Lewis and Baltimore continue on this season I’m not convinced they are going to. It’s hard to bet against Peyton Manning and this Broncos team, especially since this Denver defense is much more complete than any defense Manning ever had in Indianapolis. They can really get after the passer but I think they’ll be able to slow down Ray Rice as well, and that’s what I’d be worried about most if I was a Ravens fan. The Broncos can match up with the Ravens on both sides of the ball, and I’m not sure they have the fire-power on offense or the talent on defense to take away Manning’s passing options. On top of that, I’m not a big Flacco fan and I’m not sure he’s going to be able to make the big throws the Ravens need to win this game. He made some last week, but this defense is a different animal. I’m hoping for a good game, but I think Denver is going to win by more than one score: 31-20.
Green Bay-San Francisco:
This is a tough match-up to pick, but I’m going to go with San Francisco. I think they match up ok with Green Bay’s bevy of weapons on offense and they should be able to get after Rodgers without blitzing which is a big no-no against him. If you can generate pressure with four or five rushers (like the Vikings did in Week 17) then you can knock him around a bit and not give him a lot of options and force him to make unbelievable throws. The 49ers should be able to do that, and I think they’ll be able to take away the semblance of a running game that Green Bay has. On the other side of the ball I think the 49ers will be able to run the ball how they want against the Packers, and Kaepernick’s mobility outside of the pocket should extend a couple drives for the 49ers that could prove to be critical. It’s risky to pick a young QB like Kaepernick against a seasoned veteran like Rodgers, but Kaepernick isn’t one to wilt under pressure. I’m going with the 49ers but I think it’s going to be close: 27-21
Houston-New England:
I have to pick the Patriots here. I just don’t think the Texans defense will be able to match up with the weapons that the Patriots have on offense, and if the Pats can get the run game going I think the Texans will struggle to slow Brady and the Pats offense down. The Pats aren’t a great team on defense, but I think they’ll be able to do enough to slow down the Texans offense. If they can bottle Foster up and not allow Schaub to suck their linebackers in with play action fakes I think the Pats will be able to win this game. I think it’s going to be a close game, but I’m not going to be able to bet against Tom Brady in a playoff game at home: 31-24
Atlanta-Seattle:
This is a hard game for me to pick. I mentioned last week that I think the Seahawks match up very well with the Falcons on defense and I still believe that. This game is going to come down to who wins the match-ups between the Falcons WR’s and the Seahawks corners and whether or not the Falcons can find a way to get Tony Gonzalez involved without forcing him the ball. And if Michael Turner finds a way to have a productive game the Falcons can definitely win. But if the Seahawks make the Falcons one dimensional I will be very nervous with Ryan trying to carry the Falcons to victory against a very talented Seahawks secondary. They are missing their top pass rusher, but their secondary is good enough that I’d still be concerned. The Seahawks will look to run the ball early and often and I think the Falcons have the advantage on this side of the ball. Their defense has been very good at coming up with clutch turnovers this year and even if they let Wilson and Lynch move the ball I have a feeling Wilson is going to end up with an interception in this game and Lynch needs to make sure he covers up the ball because the Falcons will be looking to strip it. It’s never a good idea to bet against Russell Wilson (I did it last week and we all know how that worked out) but I think the Falcons have the defense to match up with him and even though I’m very nervous for this game I’m picking the Falcons to win a close one: 27-20
Those are my picks, hopefully I can improve over my 2-2 record last week. Enjoy all the football guys and look out for my coverage of the East-West Shrine game this next week. I’ll be posting notes here and on The Football Standard.
–Tom
Hey everyone,
If you haven’t seen it already, check out the new site that I am writing for The Football Standard. The NFL Draft Monsters team has combined with Draft Hub and many other talented people to form this new site and it’s going to have great content on there throughout this draft season. I’ll still post articles on here when I can, but I’m not sure I’ll be able to post everything on here that I write for the site. But I appreciate you guys reading and I’ll post things on here when I can.
Today I’m going to post some Wild Card picks, so we’ll see how I do!
Cincinnati-Houston:
I am picking Cincinnati here. Almost no one is picking Houston, but their defense has been a problem since November and the Bengals should be able to run on them thanks to their quality offensive line. I’m not a big Dalton fan, but Matt Schaub hasn’t been anything to write home about lately either and hasn’t seemed to be playing confident lately. Dalton has had an up and down year, but I think this game will come down to which QB can limit his mistakes (IE, interceptions) and which defense slows down the run game better. If I have to be on one of those I’ll take the Bengals.
Green Bay-Minnesota:
This is an easy pick- Green Bay. Minnesota needed every bounce and break that they got last week and they beat the Packers by 3 points at home in a packed Metrodome (I would know, I was there). Now the Vikings must travel to Lambeau and play out in the cold which the Vikings historically struggle to do since they play in a Dome. If you are picking the Vikings in this game you are just asking to be wrong, because the Packers and their fans are not happy that they lost to one of their rivals and let them into the playoffs, and they are going to beat them by two touchdowns. Sorry Vikings fans, but the game against the Packers in week 17 was your Super Bowl. You won, but your season ends tonight.
I’ll post my predictions for the Sunday games either later tonight or tomorrow morning.
–Tom
I realize I’m late on this, meant to post it earlier but lost track of time today. I had the Texans picked though, I swear!
Wild Card:
Texans over Bengals
Saints over Lions
Giants over Falcons
Pittsburgh over Denver
The Giants-Falcons game could be interesting depending on what Falcons team shows up. They have struggled against quality competition this year and have gotten to the playoffs largely because of a weak schedule (especially to finish the season). The Giants pass rush could give the Falcons offensive line fits, but if they can run the ball and keep Matt Ryan upright they could make things interesting. The Giants should be able to pass all over the Falcons if they want to, but may struggle to run the ball a bit. I’m picking the Giants because they know how to win in the playoffs and the Falcons haven’t proven that they can yet.
Divisional Round:
Ravens over Texans
Patriots over Pittsburgh
Saints over 49ers
Packers over Giants
The Texans have been an inspiring story winning without Matt Schaub and Mario Williams, but I don’t think T.J. Yates will be able to threaten downfield enough to keep the Ravens from working to take away Arian Foster. The Ravens offense is going against a quality defense but I think they will be able to move the ball. Joe Flacco may not have a ton of playoff experience, but he certainly has more than Yates. I’m not sold on Yates making critical plays in big games and I think the Ravens will expose his flaws for all to see.
The Patriots over Pittsburgh is a tough call for me. I think the Patriots are a good team but their secondary is a mess and I am not sold on their defense at all. Pittsburgh can move the ball and threaten teams vertically, so they could make New England pay if they bite on the run. It’s tough to bet against Tom Brady in the playoffs though, and even though the Patriots haven’t won a playoff game in a while I think they have a good chance to win one with Pittsburgh coming up to Foxboro.
The Saints over 49ers isn’t an automatic either, but I think the Saints might be the only team in the NFC that can beat the Packers. There’s just no way I can bet against Drew Brees, especially with Alex Smith starting opposite him.
The Giants are one of the few teams that is built to beat the Packers. The Packers can’t run the ball very well and rely on passing the ball quite a bit, and the Giants have shown that they have the blueprint to beat passing teams when they upset Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Super Bowl in 2007. This is an interesting match-up, especially since Aaron Rodgers didn’t play in week 17, but I expect the Packers to end up winning despite some of their struggles on defense.
Conference Championship Games:
Ravens over Patriots
Saints over Packers
The Ravens have a great defense that I think can slow down the Patriots offense enough for their offense to win the game. I don’t think the Patriots can slow down the Ravens enough to win this game personally. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t think much of the Patriots defense, especially their secondary, but I do love the Ravens defense. So I’m going with them to beat the Patriots!
Yes, I’m picking the Saints. I can’t stand the Saints for what they do to the Falcons every year, but I do respect them. Their defense certainly isn’t elite, but they will be able to pressure Rodgers a bit and won’t have to worry much about the running game I don’t think. The Packers defense has little chance of slowing down the Saints offense and I think this game will end up being a shoot-out, but despite it all I think the Saints can win. They are playing the best football in the NFC right now and as the Packers know it’s all about getting hot at the right time. The Saints are hot, the Packers are not.
Superbowl:
Ravens over Saints
I am a defense first guy even though I love slinging the ball around and scouting quarterbacks, so that has something to do with my pick here. The Saints are a great offense, but the Ravens defense can slow them down in my opinion. Do they match up perfectly? No, I don’t think so. But I think they can rattle Brees and knock him around enough to contain their offense when they need to. The Saints know how to manufacture pressure, but I think the Ravens can run the ball on them and extend drives that way. I am a closet Ravens fan so take that into consideration, but I believe defense wins championships so one of the few good defensive teams left has a great shot to win the title!
Thanks for reading, it’ll be interesting to see how I do!
–Tom
Tom Melton's NFL Draft Blog 