Tag Archive: Nick Toon


1- Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: Grade: Top 10
2- Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina: Grade: 1st Round
3- Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: Grade: 1st round
4- Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: Grade: Late 1st/Early 2nd
5- Jarius Wright, WR, Arkansas: Grade: Late 1st/Early 2nd
6- Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers: Grade: Early/Mid 2nd
7- Rueben Randle, WR, LSU: Grade: Early/Mid 2nd
8- Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin: Grade: 2nd/3rd
9- Dwight Jones, WR, North Carolina: Grade: 2nd/3rd
10- Marvin McNutt, WR, Iowa: Grade: Grade: 3rd
11- A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois: Grade: 3rd
12- Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State: Grade: 3rd
13- T.Y. Hilton, WR, Florida International: Grade: 3rd/4th
14- Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas: Grade: 4th
15- Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma: Grade: 4th
16- Marquis Maze, WR, Alabama: Grade: 4th
17- Greg Childs, WR, Arkansas: Grade: 4th/5th
18- Jarrett Boykin, WR, Virginia Tech: Grade: 4th/5th
19- DeVier Posey, WR, Ohio State: Grade: 5th
20- Jeff Fuller, WR, Texas A&M: Grade: 5th
21- Juron Criner, WR, Arizona: Grade: 5th
22- Rishard Matthews, WR, Nevada: Grade: 5th
23- Jermaine Kearse, WR, Washington: Grade: 5th/6th
24- B.J. Cunningham, WR, Michigan State: Grade: 5th/6th
25- Gerell Robinson, WR, Arizona State: Grade: 5th/6th
26- Lance Lewis, WR, East Carolina: Grade: 6th
27- Jordan White, WR, Western Michigan: Grade: 6th
28- Marvin Jones, WR, California: Grade: 6th
29- Chris Owusu, WR, Stanford: Grade: 6th
30- Derek Moye, WR, Penn State: Grade: 6th
31- Travis Benjamin, WR, Miami: Grade: 6th/7th
32- Devon Wylie, WR, Fresno State: Grade: 7th
33- T.J. Graham, WR, North Carolina State: Grade: 7th
34- Keshawn Martin, WR, Michigan State: Grade: 7th
35- Mike Willie, WR, Arizona State: Grade: 7th
36- Junior Hemingway, WR, Michigan: Grade: 7th/UDFA
37- James Rodgers, WR, Oregon State: Grade: 7th/UDFA
38- Da’Jon McKnight, WR, Minnesota: Grade: 7th/UDFA
39- Thomas Mayo, WR, California (PA): Grade: 7th/UDFA
40- Darius Reynolds, WR, Iowa State: Grade: 7th/UDFA

Vanderbilt-Kentucky:

-Jordan Rodgers has helped revitalize Vanderbilt’s season and in his fourth consecutive start he has Vanderbilt within one game of bowl eligibility. He’s very athletic, has some arm talent, but is still improving and developing as a quarterback. He isn’t on the same level as his brother, but it is worth watching what he can do in the SEC both this year and next. He’s got some weapons on offense in Zac Stacy at RB plus Jordan Matthews and Chris Boyd at WR. Matthews and Boyd are both 6’3″ plus, and as Rodgers continues to develop and gain experience I think he might make Vanderbilt a potentially fun offense to watch next year. Rodgers will be a senior in his first full season as a starter next year, Stacy will be a senior, Matthews will be a junior and Boyd will be a sophomore. They’ve got some intriguing pieces on offense, let’s hope this isn’t just a teaser and that they actually take the next step next year. I for one will be rooting for them to do so.
-Zac Stacy had another big day for Vanderbilt. I’ll need to watch him more because he has had a productive season this year. He now has 891 yards and 9 TD’s on the season as well as 16 receptions for 78 yards. I would expect him to exceed 1,000 yards rushing either this upcoming week or next, and if he is able to do then Vanderbilt has a solid shot at a bowl game. He’s their workhorse, and without him I don’t think Vanderbilt’s offense would be nearly as productive as they have been recently. I haven’t scouted him yet, but I will get to it soon when I watch Rodgers just to get a baseline idea of what he can do.
-I’m not sure anyone has enjoyed Rodgers’ presence at the quarterback position more than Jordan Matthews. He had his 3rd consecutive 100+ yard game after totaling just 8 receptions, 107 yards and 1 TD in the first six games he played in (he missed the game against Alabama). It has been a totally different story the last three weeks as he has produced 21 receptions, 452 yards and three touchdowns (one in each of the last three games). He’s been super productive and has helped open up Vanderbilt’s offense. Can’t wait to watch some of these recent games to see what he can do.

Baylor-Kansas:

-Robert Griffin had a very slow start, and while I didn’t see the game and I can’t speculate on how it happened, it certainly seemed like he carried Baylor back into the game and ultimately won it in overtime today against Kansas. I was wondering why he was struggling so much against such a seemingly bad Kansas squad, but he really rallied Baylor late in the game and helped erase a 21 point 4th quarter deficit. They scored three touchdowns in the quarter (all by Griffin, 1 rushing TD and 2 passing TD’s), forced overtime and Kansas went for a two point conversion and failed, resulting in a one point win for Baylor. I’ll definitely be watching this game later, because I have been wondering if Griffin had the ability to lead his team to a comeback win like this for a while. It was against a bad Kansas team, but it is still more than I have seen from him before. Obviously my thoughts on this game will be posted on my blog once I have a chance to break it down at a later date.

Georgia-Auburn:

-Aaron Murray is a guy I’ve been impressed with since he was a freshman. It feels like he’s been leading Georgia forever, but he is still only a sophomore. Still, he seems more mature than your average sophomore and is without a doubt the leader of Georgia’s football team. He had one of the best games of his career today when he went 14/18 for 224 yards and 4 touchdowns while adding 21 yards rushing. He was making plenty of stick throws and was placing the ball perfectly today. It was fun to watch him play this well.
-Jarvis Jones is an animal. I don’t have a lot of defensive players in this list because it’s tough to find stats for defenders the day of the game, but Jones warrants mention. I’m not sure what his final statistics were in this game, but I know he had at least one sack because I saw it. He has 9 sacks on the season I believe and an unreal 16 tackles for loss. He’s been fantastic for Georgia, and has incredible upside. It’s going to be fun to watch him develop. He’s only a sophomore, but he has had an absolute break-out season this year. He’s listed at 6’3″, 241 pounds and looks skinny on film. He has plenty of room to add weight, and I would be surprised if he wasn’t 250+ next year as a junior for Georgia.

TCU-Boise State:

-I definitely kept an eye on this game not only because there were plenty of prospects to see, but because these two teams always seem to play each-other pretty tough. TCU played them tough again today and unfortunately it came down to another field goal attempt and Boise State couldn’t capitalize on it. Must be frustrating for Boise and their fans, but yet again they won’t get a shot at an elite bowl game. I hate to say it, but I have been one of their detractors who said that if they were in a better conference they wouldn’t always be undefeated. They aren’t exactly changing my mind by losing to Nevada last year and TCU this year.
-Kellen Moore is a good QB, but I question his ability to be a NFL starter. His arm strength is an issue, but that can be improved up and overcome at least to a degree. It’s definitely worrisome that he doesn’t throw a great deep ball because of his lack of arm strength and he doesn’t have good zip on intermediate or longer throws. He’s an accurate quarterback though, he’s very intelligent and he has tons of starting experience as a four year starter. I think he can stick in the NFL, I just don’t think his combination of size and arm strength give him a lot of upside as a potential NFL starter. I do think he will make a roster and be quality back-up that might eventually get his shot, but I think he is a developmental guy that will get drafted in the 4th round range. One thing that bothered me about him today was his issues handling pressure that TCU was bringing. He isn’t used to getting hit, and when TCU was able to pressure him, hit him and sack him he seemed rattled and was missing some throws that he usually makes. He obviously rebounded in the second half, but I thought that was worth noting.

Wisconsin-Minnesota:

-Russell Wilson was the epitome of efficiency and Montee Ball broke the Big 10 single season touchdown record with three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving) today against Minnesota. He has an unreal 27 touchdowns on the season now. He has 1,232 yards, 23 rushing touchdowns and 14 catches, 234 yards and 4 touchdowns on the season. Definitely a fantastic year, and they still have two games left against Illinois and Penn State (I have a ticket to the Penn State game, very excited for that). Russell Wilson literally threw one incompletion today, and threw for 178 yards and 4 touchdowns.
-Nick Toon showed up big for Wisconsin today, but I am a little concerned that he all but disappeared in Wisconsin’s big games against Michigan State and Ohio State with a combined 5 catches for 97 total yards and 0 TD’s in those games. His only 100 yard games have been against the likes of South Dakota and now Minnesota, two teams with vastly less talent than Wisconsin. To be fair to Toon, who I think has NFL upside, he did have 4 catches, 94 yards and 1 TD against Nebraska which was Wisconsin’s first big game of the year. However, it is a bit concerning that he didn’t step up in much closer games later in the year, but is showing up against less significant opposition like he has.

USC-Washington:

-Matt Barkley continues to play well and I have to say he made Steve Sarkisian look pretty smart for saying he’d draft Barkley over Andrew Luck considering Luck’s relative struggles against Oregon tonight (to be covered later in this post) as well as Barkley’s quality season this year. He seems to have gotten better every week, which makes me think that the chances of him declaring early might be increasing. Regardless, still fun to see him play well because I have been high on him since he was a freshman.
-If you read my blog consistently you may remember me saying that I don’t know why Curtis McNeal isn’t getting more touches for USC a few weeks ago. Well recently he has been, and he has been playing fantastic. He has exceeded 100 yards rushing in three of the last four games, and has exceeded 85 yards rushing in each of the last five. Last week against Colorado he sat most of the second half, but in the first half he had 10 carries for 87 yards. Against Washington today he had 18 carries for 148 yards and another touchdown. Keep feeding McNeal USC, he’s got tons of ability. Looking forward to seeing him continue to grow and develop.
-Robert Woods and Marqise Lee are still beasts. Really fun to watch them play. People are really underestimating how significant Lee’s emergence has been for Woods. If Lee wasn’t playing this well as a freshman then Woods would be getting doubled and USC’s passing attack would be significantly impaired. It’s fun to watch these guys when Barkley has time to get them the ball.

Arkansas-Tennessee:

-Tyler Wilson continues to have a very good season for Arkansas. He’s flying a little under the radar, but he has played very well. He has 2,850 yards passing, 18 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions on the season after the game against Tennessee today. He has NFL upside, but I don’t think I will put a first round grade on him assuming he comes back for his senior year next year. I’d place him in the 2nd round conversation because he has upside, but needs to work on some things. Doesn’t always spin a clean ball, doesn’t have a rocket arm (though replacing Mallett would make anyone’s arm strength look inferior) but has quality accuracy.
-Dennis Johnson has been very strong the last four weeks and is showing Arkansas fans what might have been if he hadn’t gotten hurt and allowed Knile Davis to become the staple of their running game last season. He has filled in pretty well, and is one of the more underrated running backs in the SEC.
-Jarius Wright continues his fantastic season. He has the potential to end up in the 1st round, he has had a terrific year this year. He has 53 catches, 906 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games now. He is their go-to guy on offense.

Virginia-Duke:

-I didn’t get to see this game since it wasn’t on in my area, but Chase Minnifield, a cornerback on Virginia that I am very high on, had his 3rd interception of the season (13th of his career) and returned it for his first career defensive touchdown. I’m high on him and I look forward to getting to watch him more often.

Oregon-Stanford:

-This was supposed to be the game of the night but Oregon definitely surprised me and played much better than I expected them to. They were in control of this game after the 1st quarter, and they just had way too much speed and athletic ability on offense for Stanford.
-Andrew Luck played well in my opinion, but made a few mistakes and was flustered at times. He threw two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown and struggled to make plays downfield due to his lack of talent available to him at wide receiver. He still played a good game, but even Luck couldn’t find a way to win this one. His team was overmatched talent wise, especially at wide receiver and cornerback. Luck looked human in this game, but he is still a very good quarterback. He responds very well to adversity and was simply trying to make a play with his back against the wall when he threw his pick 6. It’s unfortunate how it played out for him, but he’s still a lock for the #1 overall pick in my opinion.
-Darron Thomas threw the ball as well as I have ever seen him throw it in this game. He would miss a throw every once in a while, but he was throwing darts all over the field and made some legitimate NFL throws in this game. Makes me wonder where this has been all season, because he looked like a completely different quarterback in this game. I didn’t even see him throw the ball like this last year when he led Oregon to the National Championship game against LSU.
-LaMichael James continues to play well, and it is very reassuring to see him healthy even if he has to play with that big pad on his right arm. He’s very explosive, agile and is stronger with better leg drive than he has had in previous years. I still have a 2nd round grade on him, but I don’t think he’s going to be able to hold up as a feature back in the NFL.
-Chase Thomas, an outside linebacker on Stanford, had a horrible game today in my opinion. He was taken out of the passing game by Darrion Weems, the senior Left Tackle on Oregon, and struggled mightily against the zone read that Oregon runs so well. He consistently collapsed on the running back instead of staying disciplined and making sure Thomas didn’t pull it and run. Instead, Thomas was able to keep it and scamper for significant rushing yardage a number of times and each time it was Thomas who let him break contain. Definitely a disappointing game for Thomas.

Arizona State-Washington State:

-It is fitting that this was the last game on tonight as well as the last game in this post because in my opinion it was the best game of the night. I completely expected Arizona State to win, but Washington State pulled off the upset thanks to two unreal individual performances.
-Connor Halliday is a freshman quarterback that has played in only three games in his college football career. I’m not even sure that he started this game for Washington State since I started watching after it had already started, but that doesn’t take away from what he was able to do. Halliday, a 6’4″, 180 pound freshman went 27/36 for 494 yards and 4 touchdowns and led the Cougars to an upset of Arizona State. He wasn’t just checking down and hitting drag routes for lots of YAC either, Halliday was making stick throw after stick throw and he was doing it under pressure, on 3rd down, it didn’t seem to matter. When he was threatening to take the lead he threw a strike to the end zone and it was dropped. Then it was 3rd and long, his RT jumped for a false start penalty. Now it was 3rd and longer and what does he do? Deliver another strike to the end zone for his fourth touchdown of the game to take the lead. Halliday played a fantastic game and while he doesn’t have perfect mechanics, a rocket arm or perfect accuracy he certainly has good arm strength, accuracy and shockingly good pocket poise for a freshman. The amount of poise it took to go toe to toe with Arizona State’s potent offense led by a quarterback in Brock Osweiler that has legitimate 1st round talent in his first significant playing time in his college career is inconceivable. He played a fantastic game, and was honestly the most impressive player that I watched today. That’s how good he was.
-Marquess Wilson was Halliday’s favorite target today as he accumulated 8 receptions, 223 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had an absolutely unreal game today, and while I had heard of him before as one of the best receivers in the Pac-12 I didn’t really think he was on the same level as Robert Woods and Keenan Allen but after seeing him tonight I think he is worthy of being mentioned as one of the best young receivers in the Pac-12. This was the first I’d ever seen him, but he had an absolutely fantastic game. He made a number of tough catches and obviously came up big when his team needed him to, and he helped make Connor Halliday look like a 4th year starter who had led 10 4th quarter comebacks in his career tonight.
-Brock Osweiler was impressive as well, though his performance will likely be lost in the shuffle because of Connor Halliday’s emergence and because he ultimately won the game. However, Osweiler still went 28/44 for 351 yards and 1 touchdown in this game despite an anemic running game that mustered just 60 yards on 24 carries. Osweiler would have had even more yards if his receivers hadn’t dropped a few catchable balls (particularly one by #13 that absolutely changed the game. He dropped a ball right on the money in a hole in the zone on 3rd and goal that would have been a TD, Arizona State then attempted a field goal and missed it, giving Washington State control). However, he was making some very impressive NFL throws. He was putting touch on passes to get the ball over the linebacker and in front of the safety down the seam and behind the corner, in front of the safety down the sideline. He made stick throw after stick throw in the 2nd half to lead his team to touchdown drives to try to stick with Washington State’s suddenly potent offense. I was very impressed even though he had a couple questionable decisions, but he played very well and deserves props for that. I’m still very high on him for the 2013 NFL Draft.
-Gerell Robinson had a huge game for Arizona State. He had 8 receptions, 158 yards and 1 TD tonight, and when I was watching I didn’t see him drop any passes he should have caught.

I know it was a long post, but hopefully you appreciated some of my thoughts on the afternoon and evening games. Thanks for reading!

–Tom

Kirk Cousins and the Michigan State Spartans were the ones celebrating at the end of this thrilling contest between two Big-10 championship contenders.

When I saw the schedule for this 2011 season I pointed this game out to every one of my friends who likes the Badgers and said “This is going to be a critical game not only for the Badgers’ season, but for the entire Big-10 conference.” After Michigan State lost to Notre Dame it didn’t seem like my prediction would come true, but boy did it ever prove to be correct. This game had immense ramifications not only for undefeated Wisconsin and one loss Michigan State, but for the rest of the teams in each division of the conference that are trying to catch both teams for a shot at the Big-10 title game.

I will readily admit that I missed the entire first half of this game. I was on my way back from an away game that my college’s football team lost (63-41, it was quite a shoot-out) and started watching instantly once I got back. I got to see Kirk Cousins and Le’Evon Bell drive down the field for a huge touchdown to put Michigan State up 31-17. I thought Wisconsin was toast at that point, especially because of how much trouble they were having slowing down Michigan State’s running game, plus they were struggling to move the ball effectively on offense. But Wisconsin’s defense made three great stops in a row and kept Wisconsin in the game, and Russell Wilson proved that he is worthy of a lot of the praise that he receives nationally by leading two touchdown drives in the last 10 minutes of the 4th quarter to tie the game at 31. On the game tying drive he was 4/4 with a huge 3rd down conversion, a fantastic throw on an extended play to Nick Toon, and then bought more time outside of the pocket, drew a defender in as he rolled to the sideline and dropped the ball off right over him to Montee Ball for an easy score.

Some of my close friends will remember me questioning how good of a coach Bret Bielema really is when we were freshmen and sophomores. Calling a timeout with 30 seconds left instead of playing for overtime didn't really change my mind.

This is where things got crazy.

Michigan State got the ball back and Cousins did not start strong. He checked down for three yards on his first pass, then short-armed a throw to the near sideline on a curl at the marker. 3rd and 7, and he threw a dart underneath to convert. Michigan State continued to try to move the ball, but couldn’t get significant chunks of yardage. With 30 seconds left, they were content to let the clock run out and take the game to overtime. But to my disbelief Bret Bielema called his second timeout of the half and stopped the clock, foolishly hoping to get the ball back to Russell Wilson and his suddenly potent offense. But with the ball around the 40 yard line, even if the Badgers had stopped the Spartans at that point they would have punted it and at best the Badgers could have hoped for the ball on the 30 yard line with 15 seconds or possibly less remaining. Not much time even with a timeout and Russell Wilson’s strong arm.

But Bilema decided to do it anyways, and Michigan State managed to convert and the game seemed to be slipping away from Wisconsin. But with 10 seconds left the Spartans found themselves outside of field goal range with only one timeout left. They snapped the ball and Cousins started scanning the field but the clock never started. In fact, the clock didn’t start running until after the play had nearly concluded and it continued to run after the play was over (all the way down to four seconds). Suffice it to say, in all the years I have been watching football I have never seen anything quite like that, and no one in the stadium seemed to notice nor did they seem to care. You’d think Michigan State would be interested in seeing if more time should have been allotted for that final play, but apparently not.

Ohio State and Michigan were both watching this game intently. Ohio State started slow, but is gaining momentum. Michigan has had a terrific start to the year, but needs to catch Michigan State.

Then the craziest thing of all happened. After the timeout, Michigan State lined up with trips on the right side of the formation, Cousins rolled out to his right side to buy time and lobbed up a hail mary. Jared Abbrederis and a number of other players were down waiting for the ball near the end zone and Abbrederis jumped to try to catch it or knock it down but he didn’t time it right. The ball bounced off of a Michigan State receiver in the end zone and Keith Nichol, a former quarterback who transitioned to wide receiver after losing the starting job to Cousins, managed to catch it on the one yard line. He then fought tooth and nail to BARELY claw the ball over the goal line for a touchdown. Initially it was ruled that he was down on the one yard line, but when looking at the replays of the play it was clear that the ball crossed the plane of the end zone (even if it barely crossed it).

So, with that, the Spartans beat the Badgers for the second year in a row during a critical portion of the season. This doesn’t dramatically hurt the Badgers’ bid to ultimately become Big-10 champions because Michigan State and Wisconsin are in separate divisions, but it does all but dash Wisconsin’s chances at the BCS National Championship. Ohio State is looming after coming off of a quality win over then-ranked Illinois. Wisconsin travels to Columbus next, and it is imperative that they win this game to keep Ohio State from roaring back in the second half of the season. Michigan State maintained their lead in the opposite division ahead of Michigan, and if they win out they will be in the Big-10 Championship Game. Wisconsin is in the same boat, and I for one hope both win out so that we can see a rematch of this game. It probably won’t be as exciting or as unpredictable as this one was, but it would likely be a great game.

Wisconsin-UNLV Breakdown

Wisconsin-UNLV Breakdown:

Obviously Wisconsin was in control of this game from start to finish, as they scored within the first three minutes of the game with a powerful running game and a dangerous play action fake. The thing that stuck out to me more than anything else was Montee Ball’s overall speed/quickness. He looked much more explosive, much quicker and displayed significantly more burst than he ever did last season. That was fantastic to see from a scouting perspective. The announcers drove the point home that he lost about 28 pounds this offseason, so obviously he is in pretty incredible shape and is moving much better as he is carrying less weight. That means Wisconsin’s backfield is going to be terrifying because James White continued to look excellent as expected (he still reminds me a lot of Warrick Dunn) and Melvin Gordon looked effective as a possible #3 back.

Obviously Russell Wilson was a player you have to key on because of his ability to sling the football all over the field as well as his athleticism, and he definitely didn’t disappoint. He was 10/13 for 255 yards (19.6 yard average), 2 TD’s plus 2 carries for 62 yards and a touchdown on a 46 yard scramble just before the end of the second half. He was awfully impressive, though two of his incompletions were passes that I would expect him to make most of the time. But his arm strength, accuracy, intelligence, athleticism and poise were on full display tonight even if the opponent wasn’t much of a challenge. He had great pass protection the whole night, and when the pocket did eventually break down a couple of times he gashed UNLV’s defense with improvised plays. He was extremely effective for having been on campus for only two months. It speaks volumes about him that he was able to adjust and adapt that quickly, not to mention that he played great and was voted as a captain by his teammates.

Nick Toon was only targeted a couple times tonight but he made two tough catches in traffic which was good to see. He and Jared Abbrederis have the most to gain from Wilson’s presence this year because they will see a lot more targets and downfield passes because of his ability to buy time in and out of the pocket and because of his significant arm strength. Jacob Pedersen was also targeted a couple times and I really think that he is going to surprise a lot of people. He’s got a ton of athleticism and upside.

The offensive line looked great to me. Obviously Oglesby isn’t the strongest part of that offensive line, but I am extremely high on Ricky Wagner (LT) and Peter Konz (OC). I also like Travis Frederick and Kevin Zeitler, though this was the first I’d seen of Frederick since he was redshirted last year. Oglesby has his moments in the run game and looked alright in pass protection, but I am going to wait to pass judgement until he deals with players with more edge speed and quickness which he really tends to struggle with when pass blocking. His feet are slow and he doesn’t seem to have much ability to recover quickly and re-establish fundamentally sound mechanics. I love Wagner and Konz though, and both looked great tonight when I paid attention to them even if it was against less than comparable competition.

Louis Nzegwu flashed some potential at DE for Wisconsin as did David Gilbert, though I think Nzegwu is the better player I think Gilbert has more upside because of his size, speed and strength combination. He flashed some serious speed off the edge last year and showed that again in this game, but he just needs to improve his hand usage if he is going to provide anywhere close to the pass rush that J.J. Watt did from that same position last year. Defensive tackle was a concern of mine for the Badgers coming in and that held to form as they got gashed versus the run, whether it was inside or outside in this game. That speaks to the linebackers as well, but they looked pretty weak up the middle to me and Gilbert did not impress me much versus the run, though I would need to re-watch the game to get a more accurate feel for that. I think the Badgers are really going to struggle to stop teams like Nebraska and Michigan State on the ground if they gave up 146 rushing yards to UNLV.

Antonio Fenelus impressed me in the secondary for Wisconsin. He was called for pass interference on a play when he had perfectly fine coverage, located the ball and was making a play for the ball in the air. I thought it was a bad call, there was contact, but it shouldn’t have been a penalty. I think he has some significant upside, and I’m excited to watch him this year. Devin Smith, their new starter at corner, didn’t fare as well. I don’t think he has much upside in the NFL, and at this point he’s probably a late round/free agent guy based on what I’ve seen of him, though he is fundamentally sound for the most part. He just doesn’t have what it takes in coverage in my opinion. I’m also not that impressed with Aaron Henry. I didn’t pay attention to him at all (he might not have even played for all I know) but he strikes me as an average FS in the NFL. Not very fundamentally sound and doesn’t seem to have very good instincts in my opinion.

For UNLV I wasn’t very impressed with their QB Caleb Herring. He looks very skinny and he has a bit of a goofy throwing motion, and isn’t overly accurate. However, he did throw a couple nice balls and I liked some of what I saw from Phillip Payne. He dropped a pass or maybe two, but he made a couple nice catches in traffic and had one of UNLV’s two touchdowns on the night. It’ll be interesting to see how he does this year.

So overall I was impressed with Wisconsin, but their run defense and their kicking game is going to hurt their chances at winning the Big 10 with Nebraska and Michigan State both posing legitimate threats with very potent ground games. They have a good chance with Russell Wilson, but their run defense was a weak spot that needs to be improved upon to hold up week 5 against Nebraska, and if they are in close games and they are relying on a kicker who can’t make all of his extra points they could be in for a couple tough losses.

Thanks for reading!!

–Tom

Here’s a quick breakdown of a view games that I think will be interesting over the next few days. Part two will be coming soon, but I didn’t want it to be too long of a post considering they are just previews for the games. This covers Thursday, Friday and some of Saturday. Saturday through Monday will be covered in Part Two. Obviously there aren’t a lot of competitive match-ups in week one of the season since most teams are essentially buying wins to start off the season instead of scheduling potentially challening out of conference opponents, but that’s out of my control. So enjoy some of the match-ups that might just end up being interesting!

Thursday:

-Wisconsin-UNLV:

There are plenty of prospects to look at in this game. Russell Wilson (QB), Montee Ball and James White (RB), Nick Toon (WR), Ricky Wagner (LT), Kevin Zeitler (OG), Peter Konz (OC), Louis Nzegwu (DE), Antonio Fenelus (CB), Aaron Henry (FS) and their former nickel corner Devin Smith. On the UNLV side they have a young QB in Caleb Herring who will be trying to improve on an average season as a freshman where he saw action in 8 games but didn’t do anything spectacular. He has an ok running game and a solid receiver in Phillip Payne who has 127 career receptions coming into his senior year as well as 1,786 total receiving yards and 19 touchdowns. He should be the main target for Herring in this game, and I imagine Fenelus will be up to the challenge of defending him. That could be the most intriguing match-up in the game outside of Wilson playing his first game on the Badgers, which certainly will get lots of media attention throughout the season as he becomes acclimated to the team, the coaching staff and obviously his teammates on offense. I’m excited to see how they all do in this game, but Ricky Wagner is the best prospect in this game in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how he holds up as a starter at Left Tackle. I have high expectations for him.

Friday:

-TCU-Baylor:

This is an intriguing matchup at the QB position with Casey Pachall replacing Andy Dalton at QB and with Robert Griffin III returning as the starter for Baylor. TCU is overrated as the #14 overall team in my opinion, but they are returning a strong defense led by Tank Carder who terrorized Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. I also think Stansly Maponga has some upside as a defensive end for TCU. Griffin is very athletically talented, but needs significant improvement with his mechanics and accuracy to be a serious or even dominant threat at QB. It will be interesting to see what Pachall has to offer, but Ed Wesley and a strong stable of RB’s are returning to help support him while he adjusts to the starting role. Kendall Wright is going to get a lot of looks from Griffin especially because of the loss of Josh Gordon, a receiver who had legitimate 1st round ability. TCU is obviously the favorite in this one, but Baylor has enough firepower to potentially hang around with them.

Saturday:

-Northwestern-Boston College:

This game could go either way, and has a couple intriguing prospects at QB. The superior prospect is obviously Dan Persa, the QB for Northwestern. He should give the Wildcats a serious boost on offense, and they’ve got a lot of talent on that offense for him to utilize. Boston College has a younger QB in Chase Rettig who should be a sophomore this year. He showed some ability as a freshman last year, so it will be interesting to see how he deals with the Northwestern defense. Montel Harris should help keep some pressure off of him even if he is an average NFL prospect. I think Northwestern is the favorite, but Boston College has a legitimate shot in this one.

-Notre Dame-South Florida:

Notre Dame is a heavy favorite in this game but I don’t buy the hype of them being a potential top 15 team. South Florida doesn’t have a great shot at winning this game but they have a QB in B.J. Daniels who can be very streaky, and can be dangerous when he’s hot thanks to his strong arm and legitimate athleticism so he can threaten with his legs as well as his arm. I’m not sold on Notre Dame’s defense at this point, but their offense shouldn’t have much trouble scoring on South Florida’s defense. Dayne Crist will be starting a game for the first time in a very long time so expect some significant rust, but they’ll make it easy for him to get into a rhythm, especially with Michael Floyd still intact.

-BYU-Ole Miss:

I actually think this could be an interesting game. I know nothing about either QB that Ole Miss was considering starting (except that the original starter Randall Mackey was arrested for disorderly conduct after a fight at a bar) so now Barry Brunetti is starting. I know a significant bit more about Jake Heaps, BYU’s QB, and I am excited to see how he progresses. He was incredibly impressive for a true freshman QB last year, and was quite impressive in their bowl win to cap off their season last year. This will be a huge test for him going against a SEC caliber defense, but I think he might be up to it. Ole Miss will rely a lot on Brandon Bolden, their quality RB, who put up 976 rushing yards (14 TD’s and 6.0 ypc) plus 344 receiving yards and 3 more TD’s on 32 receptions. It’ll be interesting to see how well they move the ball because I have no expectations for their QB. They have some talent on defense, but it will be interesting to see how they match up with BYU. Cody Hoffman, BYU’s very large WR, might create some match-up problems because of his size.

It’ll be interesting to see how these match-ups play out, but regardless I am excited to see some college football finally. Enjoy it, I know I will!

–Tom

E.J. Manuel's performance this year will either be the reason Florida State climbs back to the top of the ACC or the reason they have a mediocre season. If he plays well, the old FSU could be back. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)

6. Florida State- Florida State lost quarterback Christian Ponder but outside of that they return a LOT of starters, key starters too. Jermaine Thomas at RB will be huge for them, they have talent at receiver, and they return a quality offensive line (especially their tackles Andrew Datko and Zebrie Sanders). They also have one of the best pass rushers in the country in Brandon Jenkins, who should draw considerable attention this year as he attempts to mimic his incredible success from last year. Florida State’s saving grace will be E.J. Manuel’s considerable playing experience considering he was the back-up to Ponder all this time, but because of Ponder’s injuries he not only has regular season experience but bowl game experience. While he wasn’t dominant or spectacular in all of his playing time, he definitely showcased ability and should play well enough to give Florida State a good shot at an ACC title. If he plays really well then they may have a shot at a great bowl game or even a chance to win the National Championship.

7. South Carolina- South Carolina is returning a lot of talent and has a great recruiting class coming in. They have a number of players ready to emerge, and if Stephen Garcia can finally get his act together (and keep it together, which is usually the tricky part) South Carolina should have a great season. Garcia, Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffrey will make the offense viable provided the offensive line helps them out, and South Carolina should have a fierce pass rush if Devin Taylor emerges like I expect him to. South Carolina definitely has a lot of talent, and this may be the ole ball coach’s best chance to win a SEC title in a long time, with Alabama, Auburn and Florida all in a significant transition stage.

Trent Richardson has incredible upside and should help carry the Crimson Tide offense while A.J. McCarron adjusts to his new role as the starter. (AP Photo/ Butch Dill)

8. Alabama- It’s tough to ever count Alabama out of the top 5 or 10, but if there was a year to do it this would probably be the year. They lost a quarterback who is apparently allergic to losing in Greg McElroy, a Heisman winner and future NFL stud in Mark Ingram, a dynamic wide receiver in Julio Jones, multiple offensive linemen (most notably James Carpenter, who I might have had an interview with had I not projected him to go in the 3rd round) and Marcell Dareus, just to name a few. Losing four first round draft picks plus a quarterback who lost less times in his college career than I do when I play a full NCAA Football on Xbox is about as bad as it gets for a college program, but Alabama is an elite program now and like USC used to do they aren’t going to rebuild, they are going to reload. The problem with that is, while they can reload at most positions and they return a LOT of talent on defense, QB is going to be a question mark. A.J. McCarron is expected to be the starter, but he has little playing experience and will only be a redshirt sophomore. The QB position is incredibly important, especially for a possible national title run, and while I expect ‘Bama to be formidable because of their defense and a very dynamic running back in Trent Richardson and a receiver I am high on in Marquis Maze, if McCarron doesn’t step up in a big way they will lose at least a couple games even with a favorable schedule for a SEC school.

9. Oklahoma State- Oklahoma State had a fantastic season last year and they return some key starters this year, specifically Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, two of the key cogs in what may have been the most explosive offense in the country last year. They lost Kendall Hunter though, a very effective RB who really was the final piece to their explosive offense puzzle, so replacing him with another effective player will be critical if they want to have similar success on offense again this year. On defense they have some talent, but it will be a question mark until they step up in my opinion. They haven’t had much on that side of the ball in a while but it has been overshadowed by their high octane offenses. If their defense can step up then Oklahoma State has a chance to give Oklahoma a run for their money.

Russell Wilson may not have played for Wisconsin last year, but this year he could be the key to unlocking the potential of multiple players on offense, most notably wide receiver Nick Toon.

10. Wisconsin- Wisconsin is returning a lot of quality players, such as Montee Ball, James White, Nick Toon, Ricky Wagner, Peter Konz, Kevin Zeitler, Louis Nzegwu, Chris Borland (coming back from injury), Antonio Fenelus, Devin Smith and Aaron Henry, to name a few. They will still have a very good offensive line as they return three good starters and already have a replacement for Carimi in place at LT in Wagner. RT will be an area of concern, as well as the DE spot opposite Nzegwu, previously occupied by the #11 overall draft pick J.J. Watt. They do have a significant upgrade on the way at QB though, and Russell Wilson’s transfer to Wisconsin makes them a favorite to win the Big-10 this year. Their pass defense is concerning to me though, because they lost two established starters in J.J. Watt and Niles Brinkley and while they might have solid replacements for them Wisconsin’s pass defense was an issue before they even lost them (see Rose Bowl game against TCU). If they can generate a quality pass rush and play better pass defense then Wisconsin could go a long way, but that back end is concerning to me.

Thanks for reading my most recent installment of my Preseason Top 25 Rankings! The top five teams will be unveiled tomorrow!

–Tom

Wisconsin Film Post:

Here are my thoughts on all of Wisconsin’s prospects. Obviously as a senior Russell Wilson would constitute an offensive prospect, but I obviously couldn’t watch film of him on Wisconsin from 2010 because he was on NC State at the time. I have high expectations for Wilson and the rest of Wisconsin’s team next year, and if you want to read about the impact I think Wilson will have on Wisconsin feel free to read it here. Otherwise, enjoy the read for these prospects! I watched a ton of film for these, so they should be pretty thorough.

Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin: Ball was obviously extremely effective for Wisconsin last year and he should be the featured back in their offense next year and figures to continue his incredible success that he experienced after John Clay’s injury last season. Ball is a power back in a similar mold to Clay, just without the same mammoth size. He has a similar running style though he isn’t as likely to run over defenders as Clay was. He can run through contact and break arm tackles, but I haven’t seen him bowl defenders over like everyone saw Clay do on a regular basis in the games I watched, though they were from earlier in the season. He seems to have about 4.55 speed to me, which is solid for a power back, but like Clay I don’t think he has much in the way of burst and quickness. He seems to run at more or less one speed on toss or stretch plays, not showing much of a higher gear when he has time to accelerate. He doesn’t quite have the speed to get the edge, but he is a very effective between the tackles runner. Shows the willingness to put his head down and get the tough yards, and showed good vision to find cut-back lanes, etc. He consistently falls forward also which illustrates his impressive leg drive. He also flashed ability in pass protection as he picked up blitzes with effective blocks multiple times while I was watching him. He also demonstrated pretty soft hands out of the backfield. Overall I like Ball as a prospect, but I’m not sure he’s much more than a mid-round guy at this point.

 

I think James White is one of the most talented players Wisconsin has had in years, and is poised to be one of the best players in the Big-10 in the next year or two.

James White, RB, Wisconsin: First things first, White is very fast. He definitely has the speed to get the edge and demonstrated impressive quickness every time I saw him get the ball. He shows pretty good vision though a couple times he missed cut-back lanes when running between the tackles. Those were in the earlier games though, and he seemed to get better and better as the season progressed. When he is in the open field he has a great feel as a runner and is so quick and fast that it is hard to get him down one on one, especially if he can get you off balance with a cut/spin move. He has good hands out of the backfield and should be utilized as a receiver more this year because of his speed and potential to get sizeable gains on screen passes. He also flashes some ability as a pass blocker, utilizing a couple cut blocks to take out blitzing players. He did miss an assignment or two when he was in, so he still needs to improve in this area. He reminds me a lot of Warrick Dunn in terms of his size, quickness, speed, hands and at times his vision. We’ll see if that comparison holds any water as we all watch him this season, but the similarities are uncanny to me at this point. I know White is only a freshman, but he has 1st round written all over him when he eventually leaves in my opinion.

Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin: I have to say I was impressed by Toon. I had seen him play before obviously, since my freshman year actually, and I knew he had a tendency to drop catchable balls at times. That’s usually a red flag for me, because it’s pretty natural to expect a wide receiver to catch the ball when he’s thrown to, or else what’s the point? So I was skeptical about Toon. But after I was able to watch him and specifically pay attention to him and see what he had to offer I have to say I was pleasantly surprised. He has good size at 6’2”, 215 pounds and you can tell he is strong. He is effective running after the catch and gets tough yards even in the face of contact. He is also quite fast. He has a listed 40 yard dash time of 4.52, but I think he might be closer to 4.48, or at least it looks that way on film. But even more importantly, he has very impressive acceleration and burst which helps him create significant separation. At times his burst looks elite, and while I’m not sure if it is, it is definitely noticeable and noteworthy. He is a good route runner for this reason, and I’m not sure anyone in the country runs a better corner route than he does.

He also shows the ability to come down with tough catches, such as balls away from his body or passes in traffic with defenders draped over him. He has good hands and good potential to make tough catches, his problem is with more routine passes. I think it has more to do with lapses in concentration (not paying attention to the ball or trying to turn and run too quickly before the ball is secure) than it does with his actual ability to catch the ball. If he focused intently on the routine passes on curls and quick slant routes he would be able to catch them easily, just like he catches tougher balls. His hands aren’t elite, but they aren’t bad enough that he should drop those catchable balls by any means. So, needless to say, I like Toon’s upside. He isn’t a great run blocker, and doesn’t give a ton of effort in that phase of the game, but he isn’t a liability either. I’ve heard he’s a confident, bordering on cocky guy, but that’s nothing new for the receiver position. I can’t wait to see how he does this season, because if he can get on the same page with Russell Wilson he could absolutely blow his career season averages out of the water. To do that, though, he will need to improve his concentration on routine passes. Let’s hope he does, because I love watching him run routes.

Josh Oglesby, OT, Wisconsin: There isn’t much to say about Oglseby other than he clearly disappointed this past season. He got replaced by Ricky Wagner, an offensive tackle I am very high on that is expected to start at LT, and didn’t see much playing time after that. The RT position may be up in the air for Wisconsin so perhaps he will have a shot at regaining his starting spot, but he has very slow feet and is not fundamentally sound, leading to him reaching and losing his balance when blocking, severely limiting his effectiveness. He also doesn’t have the lateral agility or the quick feet to mirror speed rushers which presents a problem when he faces smaller, quicker defenders. I would be surprised if he turned out to be the starter, and even though he has great size I don’t think he will stick in the NFL. He strikes me as a potential CFL player because his size will do more for him at that level of competition.

 

Wagner has NFL upside as a LT in my opinion, and I was very impressed with him even when he had just been inserted into the lineup at RT.

Ricky Wagner, OT, Wisconsin: Wagner should be the man to replace Carimi at LT and he is only a junior so he definitely has upside. I was very impressed with his lateral agility, his sound fundamentals, his quick feet and his good hand placement. He doesn’t lean or reach when blocking, he bends at the knees, not at the waist, and he has the athletic ability to get out in front of screens or to cut block defenders effectively. He is very athletic, moves to the second level well, and has good awareness to boot. On top of that he can recover quickly whether he is surprised by a blitzer or if he gets bull-rushed, and he has a strong anchor that he can use to stop the bull rush. He has the total package and I think he might actually have more upside than Carimi as a pass blocker because he will be able to handle speed better than Carimi did. I think Wagner has LT written all over him and may even keep the LT label once he starts getting NFL consideration. I am very much looking forward to seeing him play this season, and I think he will surprise a lot of people once he faces some pass rushers at LT. He should be able to handle whatever the Big-10 can throw at him. There was a rumor going around Wisconsin that he was playing so well that the coaching staff considered moving him to LT last year, even with Carimi firmly entrenched at the position. That speaks volumes about his upside in my opinion. I can’t wait to watch him play more this season as a junior.

Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin: Zeitler is a pretty good guard, but I’m not sure he will go before the 3rd round at this point. He has pretty good size and shows some ability as a drive blocker, has pretty solid leg drive usually, and is an effective combo blocker who has the athleticism to get to the second level. He is a solid puller, but not spectacular and at times will struggle to sustain when blocking on the move. He is athletic enough to cut block effectively which he does well, and he also has a good enough first step to down block effectively, where he gets a good push. He will lean at times I noticed, but overall seems to have solid balance. He can anchor as a pass rusher and seems to be fundamentally sound overall as far as hand placement, etc. I don’t think he’s an elite guard, but he looks like a reliable NFL starter to me, similar to Moffitt in that regard.

Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin: Konz was very impressive when I watched him. He will be a junior in 2011 so he has definite upside. He is big and strong enough that he can block a defensive tackle one on one which is a very valuable trait for a center to have. He isn’t a dominant drive blocker but he can drive DT’s one on one at times which is almost like having a third guard on the line instead of a smaller pivot who can’t handle a defensive tackle one on one. It’s a huge advantage for your offensive line, which is one reason I’m high on Konz and another reason why I think he will be in high demand when he enters the NFL Draft this year or next. He is a good athlete and pulls well and he blocks effectively on the move, consistently engaging linebackers on the second level and taking them out of the play. He also has an impressive first step which enables him to snap and step smoothly, and that enables him to down block or wall-off defensive tackles to create seams in the middle of the offensive line with relative ease. He has good feet and strength which helps as well. He will lean into his blocks at times though which leads to balance issues, so he spends some time on the ground which I’m not wild about. He has pretty good awareness but I’m not sure how good his intangibles are, I haven’t seen enough of him to know how much he makes line calls before the snap, etc. He has a lot of upside, but he still has things to improve on. I think he is the 2nd best prospect on Wisconsin’s offensive line behind Wagner.

 

Wisconsin fans, Pedersen is going to be the guy who replaces Kendricks as the next dynamic TE at Wisconsin. Get excited. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Jacob Pedersen, TE, Wisconsin: I was very pleased with myself for uncovering Pedersen when watching film. His stat line may not blow you away (8 receptions, 132 yards (16.5 yards per reception) and 2 TD’s) but they are pretty impressive for a #3 TE who was playing behind a 2nd round pick who was a very good receiving TE and arguably their best big play receiver in Lance Kendricks. I was not particularly taken with Jake Byrne, a TE who will be a senior in 2011, though he is a pretty good blocker. I expected them to have a receiving TE to help replace Kendricks, and that is where Pedersen comes in. He is fast, similar to Kendricks I would say, has good size, hands and has some quickness to create separation and shows the ability to run effective routes. I don’t think he will be the primary blocking TE like Kendricks was regularly for the Badgers, but should have a similar role to what Kendricks had as a junior with Garrett Graham as the primary TE. He should provide some ability to stretch the field just like Kendricks did and hopefully his hands will be just as reliable.

Thanks for reading, and the defensive post should be up later today!

–Tom

By deciding to attend Wisconsin for his senior season Russell Wilson has given Wisconsin's offense the potential to be one of the best in the country.

Russell Wilson, the former NC State quarterback, has announced (according to ESPN) that he will transfer to Wisconsin this upcoming season. He will be eligible immediately in 2011 and should give Wisconsin a dynamic talent at quarterback that they haven’t had at the position in years. Normally the Badgers have an average quarterback who avoids mistakes and usually hands the ball off to a talented stable of running backs and executes play-action fakes once the running game is working. However, Wilson has the ability to take over the game with his arm, plus he has enough mobility to extend plays and gain yards with his legs. When he suits up in Badger colors in week one of the college football season he will be the most talented quarterback to start a game for the Badgers since I started watching college football when Brooks Bollinger was Wisconsin’s starter, and Wilson puts Bollinger to shame.

Wilson might be a smaller quarterback at only 5’11”, 206 pounds (I would actually be surprised if he wasn’t 5’10”) he definitely has an arm. He doesn’t have elite arm strength, but he has good arm strength and accuracy and when his talented arm is combined with his athletic ability it forms a potent combination that should benefit Wisconsin’s offense immediately as soon as he is comfortable. Take a look at some of the numbers Wilson has put up at NC State, a program that is far from a national power and is not nearly as well stocked with talent as Wisconsin regularly is. As a freshman Wilson was 150/275 (54.5% completion) for 1,955 yards and an incredible 17 touchdowns and only ONE interception. As a freshman starter. As a sophomore he was 224/378 (59.3% completion), 3027 yards, 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Then last season as a junior he passed for 3,563 yards while completing 308 out of an incredible 527 pass attempts (58.4% completion). He finished the season with 28 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, a very good year by any standard but remarkably it was his least efficient season of his career.

Now, some might criticize his height, or say that his stats won’t translate to the Big-10, or say that he won’t be comfortable enough at Wisconsin to give them a realistic chance at a second consecutive trip to the Rose Bowl. I say that is all BS. Wilson’s freshman season at a wayward NC State program when he threw 17 touchdowns and only 1 interception proves what he can do even without a lot of talent around him. The year before he arrived at NC State the team was 5-7. His freshman year they were 6-7, losing a seventh time to Rutgers in their bowl game at the end of the season (before which they won four consecutive games in order to be bowl eligible). Then last year the turnaround had been completed as the team finished 9-4 and defeated #22 ranked West Virginia 23-7 in their bowl game.

I'm sure Montee Ball and James White will be celebrating now that they won't be facing as many 8 man boxes from opposing defenses.

Wilson has proven that he can step in and make an immediate impact, and I expect him to do just that at Wisconsin in 2011. He has a lot of talent and should give Wisconsin’s passing game a significant boost, one that they haven’t seen in probably a decade and may not see for another decade after this season. One thing you have to consider is the dramatic disparity between NC State’s supporting cast and Wisconsin’s supporting cast. NC State might have better receivers which helped Wilson produce a lot of yardage through the air, but comparing the Wolfpack’s running game to Wisconsin is quite alarming:
NC State- 2008: 442 attempts, 1,601 yards rushing (3.6 yard per carry average), 14 touchdowns
Wisconsin- 2008: 567 attempts, 2,745 yards rushing (4.8 yard per carry average), 31 touchdowns
NC State- 2009: 419 attempts, 1,451 yards rushing (3.5 yard per carry average), 15 touchdowns
Wisconsin- 2009: 581 attempts, 2,650 yards rushing (4.6 yard per carry average), 33 touchdowns
NC State- 2010: 461 attempts, 1,603 yards rushing (3.5 yard per carry average), 17 touchdowns
Wisconsin- 2010: 584 attempts, 3,194 yards rushing (5.5 yard per carry average), 48 touchdowns

Here are the averages for the two teams over the last three years:

NC State: 440.66 attempts, 1551.66 yards rushing (3.52 yard per carry average), 15.33 touchdowns
Wisconsin: 577.33 attempts, 2863 yards rushing (4.96 yard per carry average), 37.3 touchdowns

Just take in those numbers for a bit. Wisconsin, on average, rushes 137 more times a season, produces 1,312 more rushing yards (at a rate of 1.44 yards per carry better than NC State) and averages a whopping 22 more touchdowns per season on the ground. Yet, despite the pressure that was on Wilson to throw the ball even 250 times as a freshman, he still produced incredible numbers through the air. In two seasons as a starter for Wisconsin Scott Tolzien only threw the ball 594 times (328 as a junior, 266 as a senior), while Wilson threw 527 passes last season alone!

My point is, the burden of the offense is going to be on Wisconsin’s running game as it always is. However, instead of a game manager at quarterback (no offense to the last decade of Wisconsin quarterbacks) they will have a dynamic player at the position who can carve up defenses through the air at an alarming rate even without a running game that EVER averaged more than 3.6 yards per carry for an entire season. Not only that, but Wilson is a scrambling quarterback and he himself produced 1,089 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns in three seasons at NC State. That is an average of 363 yards per season. I won’t even bother subtracting 363 yards from all of the season averages for NC State, but on average without Wilson they would be averaging about 1,200 yards per season and 11 or so touchdowns, a pathetic total. Now, imagine Wisconsin’s rushing numbers with a quarterback who can stretch the field vertically with his arm and his legs.

I don't think anyone stands to benefit more individually from Wilson's presence on offense than senior receiver Nick Toon.

The point of all of this statistical analysis is to show the impact Wilson was able to have without a running game. With a running game as dominant as Wisconsin’s he isn’t going to face a lot of intricate coverages meant to stop the passing game. If defenses try to take away the pass against Wisconsin (I’m not sure anyone has ever considered such a thing) then Wisconsin’s running game is going to demolish you for 60 straight minutes and control the clock with ease. But now if you try to stack the box against the Badgers you will be facing a quarterback with 8,545 career passing yards, 76 career touchdowns (with only 26 interceptions) and 1,089 career rushing yards and 17 more touchdowns. So, fair warning to all the team’s on Wisconsin’s schedule this season: Their offense just got even more dangerous.

Now, while the upside for Wilson’s addition to Wisconsin’s offense is very high, we can’t expect him to step in and throw 40 touchdowns and 4 interceptions this year like this is a NCAA video game on the easiest setting. There are going to be growing pains the first few weeks as Wilson continues to adjust to Wisconsin’s largely ball-control offense versus the wide open passing attack he played in at NC State. However, with four weeks to work out the kinks before they play Nebraska at home I think Wilson and the Badgers will be able to get on the same page. Therefore, even if he has a rough couple of games at the beginning of the season, I expect Wilson to hit his stride and show the world what he could have done at NC State if he had a running game.

Sorry about the length of this post. I started doing some research and it just led to more and more things I wanted to look into and compare and contrast. Wilson has a lot of ability and I can’t wait to watch him carve teams up on play action for the Badgers this year. I look forward to seeing at least two of these games in person this season and as usual, thanks for reading.

–Tom

I recently re-watched this game to take a look at a number of the prospects on Wisconsin and on Miami. There were so many that I have to split it up into two parts much like I did with the Virginia Tech-Tennessee write-up that I did a couple of weeks ago. Here is my write-up for all of the Wisconsin players I took notes on:

Kendricks may very well be my favorite TE in this draft class. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

There were a lot of players for me to take notes on in this game, but none of them stuck out more than Lance Kendricks, a TE on Wisconsin. He was only a junior in this game, but he arguably the best game of his career against Miami with at least 8 catches and well over 100 yards, many of the catches came on critical first down conversions, and he did a great job of catching every pass with his hands and getting quality yards after the catch. He also did a very good job of sealing the edge on a number of good run plays, and even gave Alan Bailey, a stand-out defensive lineman on Miami, trouble in one on one blocking situations. Overall, Kendricks was the best player in this game as far as I’m concerned, and he is definitely one of my favorite TE’s in the draft next year. Heck, he might be my favorite. If he wasn’t so good already I would have him as my sleeper without a doubt. I can’t wait to see him play this season.

I also took a lot of notes on Scott Tolzien, who had a solid game against Miami. He had a good number of yards, and aside from an unlucky interception that came after one of his passes was deflected at the line and intercepted by a defensive lineman, he didn’t make many mistakes (if any) by throwing the ball into coverage. He took what the defense gave him and usually that involved a pass to Lance Kendricks or Garrett Graham. He has solid footwork, decent arm strength and decent accuracy, but he is not a stand-out in any area. He flashed some pocket poise, but other times he would get happy feet and rush a throw or get outside of the pocket unnecessarily. Not many of his throws were NFL caliber throws, meaning you have to have NFL quality arm strength and accuracy to make the throw. Usually his man was open or a few times he would throw the ball up and let his man go make a play on it. He had decent timing, but I am not sure how good he is at anticipating what will happen on any given play. He seems to do an ok job of pre-snap reads, and at times he would check out of a play, but other times Miami would be showing a blitz (often in the 2nd half they would bring a run blitz on 1st down to try to force Wisconsin into 2nd and 3rd and long situations) and he would just leave the play as is and they would get stuffed for a short gain or a loss. This is partially on Wisconsin’s offensive coordinator for getting extremely predictable and calling a run play on at least nine first downs in a row without throwing a pass, but it is also partially on Tolzien because I think he has the ability to check out of a bad play-call like that. It was hard to watch that kind of ineptitude over and over.

Tolzien still looks like a game manager to me, but I am interested to see how he progresses in his second season as a starter.

So my impression of Tolzien hasn’t really changed. Wisconsin lives off the run game, especially John Clay, and Tolzien just has to manage the game, not force throws into coverage, and convert some 3rd downs when he is asked to. Early in the game Wisconsin was very conservative on 3rd and long, and would almost just give up on the drive if they were in a 3rd and long. But as the game went on Tolzien got more confident and regularly found Kendricks or Graham on 3rd and long to extend the drive. So, Tolzien might not look like a quality NFL starter, but he looks like a 7th round/UDFA type player who could end up on a practice squad. I’m not sure he is #3 QB material yet, but he will have a year to prove that he can still develop and get better, so it will be interesting to see how he does in his second season as a starter this year.

Obviously you have to take note of how John Clay does when you watch Wisconsin, and he had a good game today. He played through some kind of ankle injury that he suffered during the game but he had an effective day and eclipsed the 100 yard mark yet again. He runs hard, finishes runs strong and runs through arm tackles with ease. He doesn’t have much burst, and I think he is going to be more of a one dimensional power-back in the NFL if he doesn’t show that he can block on 3rd downs in the backfield or threaten defenses as a receiver out of the backfield. He had a catch or two underneath in this game, but he needs to show more than that to make me think he is a reliable option out of the backfield. Right now I think he is more of a 3rd or 4th round prospect, but next year I would like to see him play at a lighter weight than 248 pounds, which is what he was listed at. I have a feeling he was heavier than 250 in this game, and he really seemed to have a gut when he would stand up straight or lean over before the play would start. If he could get down to under 240 I think he would be more effective, he wouldn’t wear down as easily, he would have better stamina and he might have more of a burst to hit the hole when he finds it. He is a quality power-back right now, but I don’t think he is going to be a high draft pick if he doesn’t get in better shape. Just imagine a leaner version of Clay with more strength, less fat and a little more quickness. He would be very hard to slow down. Hopefully someone is in his ear telling him this so he can terrorize the Big 10 again next year.

John Clay is a true power back, but it would really help his draft stock if he could show the ability to catch passes out of the backfield and to block on passing downs.

Nick Toon is a receiver who is really flying under the radar but I love his game. He gets good separation, has solid size and does a good job of catching passes away from his body with his hands. He has nearly made some spectacular catches along the sideline, and if Tolzien had helped him out a bit he could have come down with a big catch on a deep ball down the sideline. When I watched it live I definitely thought it was a catch, so he nearly got his feet in-bounds. I think that Toon will emerge some more this season, and I really think he is a good sleeper candidate for his class. I would be surprised if he declared after his junior year this season, but I think he could solidify his draft stock for a big push as a senior with another good year this year. I am excited to see how he builds upon his 800+ yard season as a sophomore.

I have become quite fond of scouting offensive linemen, and Wisconsin is usually a good unit to scout for that, especially if you like good run blockers. Wisconsin has three pretty good upper classmen this year: Gabe Carimi, their LT, Josh Oglesby, their RT (who is a junior), and John Moffit, who plays C and OG. Carimi and Moffitt are both seniors. I took some notes on them, but this wasn’t exactly a banner day for any of them.

Carimi may be best prospect out of the three, so I will start with him. My general impression of him is that he will have to slide over to RT in the NFL. He is a pretty good run blocker, but he isn’t the drive blocker I thought he might be when I started watching this game initially. He can get some push off the line, but he doesn’t dominate his man in the running game like Jake Long did at Michigan. However, he doesn’t look especially fluid as a pass blocker, nor does he seem mirror speed rushers particularly well. Miami has a couple of good speed rushers, and he didn’t really get beat in this game, but I personally think his ceiling is higher at RT. Naturally I will need to watch more of him, especially from a pass blocking standpoint, because if I had taken notes on him, Oglesby and Moffitt on every snap this would have taken hours longer for me to scout. However, my impression remains unchanged that he has a higher ceiling at RT than at LT in the NFL, though potentially he could start at RT and be a back-up at LT that could play there in a pinch. He didn’t really look like a 1st rounder in this game to me, but he is still a quality OT prospect despite that.

Carimi is a quality tackle prospect, but I don't think he is a 1st round talent right now.

Next I will break down Moffitt a bit for you. I actually anticipated him playing at OG in this game, so I was a little surprised to see him inside at center. He looked good on every snap though, I don’t believe I recorded a bad snap from him when Tolzien was under center or when he was in shotgun, which is pretty impressive for a guy who spent a lot of last year playing offensive guard. If center is his true NFL position then he could be a pretty rare prospect because of his ability to block effectively in the run game. He’s a pretty big guy, and he has the ability to block a defensive tackle one on one, which is extremely rare for a center. However, I think he may slide outside to guard in the NFL, even though I think he projects just fine to the pivot spot. He should be a solid guard, a pretty good run blocker and a pretty good pass protector, but I wouldn’t grade him any higher than a 3rd rounder or maybe a 4th rounder right now. Obviously I will have to see how he does as a senior, but he looks like a solid OG prospect and a potentially good center prospect to me right now.

Oglesby is a bit different from Carimi and Moffitt. Those two guys are pretty fundamentally sound, they don’t make a lot of mistakes, and they are two of the leaders on that offensive line. Oh, and Carimi came back from a knee injury in this game when he got rolled up on from behind. He just walked it off and came back in, that was impressive. But Oglesby is a huge RT with long arms, but he isn’t as fundamentally sound. He is an effective run blocker more-so because of his size than his technique, and he leans a lot into his blocks and ends up on the ground his fair share. He is usually just bigger than the guy he is blocking, so his fundamentals don’t need to be very well developed in order for him to move him off the line or to get him to the ground. But when he has to pass protect his size isn’t a significant advantage like it is versus the run, and he doesn’t look like he has good footwork or lateral agility. That becomes an issue when he is asked to neutralize speed rushers. When he can get his hands on the defender he can usually neutralize him with relative effectiveness, but if he has to mirror a speed rush he can have some issues. He needs to do what he can to improve his lateral agility and really work hard to improve his footwork or he is going to have serious issues trying to play RT in the NFL. He has great size and strength, but he needs to polish his fundamentals a lot.

Watt has impressive size but he was too quick for Orlando Franklin versus the run in this game.

JJ Watt is an intriguing defensive end with good size and athletic ability. I didn’t watch him on every play, but he seems to have a pretty good motor, and he does a good job of getting upfield and penetrating into the backfield. There were a few plays he disrupted for a loss in this game, and he looked like he was too quick for Orlando Franklin versus the run. He also does a good job of getting his hands up in passing lanes to knock down passes or alter throws, as he had one or two pass deflections against Miami. There were a couple plays that he misread or did not keep contain on, and on both plays it allowed the Miami ball-carrier to bounce outside and to gain some yardage. He needs to work on keeping contain, not overreacting to the run, and I’m not sure how good his hand usage is. I need to watch him on a snap to snap basis to evaluate his burst off the snap, how much speed he has to get the edge, and what kind of pass rush moves he has. From what I saw in this game he doesn’t seem to have much to offer as a pass rusher, but that can change between his junior and senior seasons, and I didn’t get a lot of good looks at him. But versus the run he sure does have an impact. He will get a lot more attention this year since O’Brien Schofield has graduated and moved on to the NFL, so it will be interesting to see how effective he is this year.

That about does it for Wisconsin and Miami. Hopefully you enjoyed the read and liked what I had to say. Feel free to leave comments! I can’t wait for the football season to get here.

Thanks again!

–Tom Melton