Tag Archive: Dez Bryant


NFL Weekly Picks: Week 3

Hey guys, sorry I didn’t have time to get my weekly picks post up last week. I just moved back to Minnesota so now that I am settling in hopefully I will be able to get into a groove with all of these weekly posts that I want to do. So, without further ado, here are my NFL Weekly Picks!

Eagles over Chiefs- I think the Eagles’ offense will be too much for the Chiefs to slow down, but it may come down to whether or not the Eagles defense can stop anyone. Thus far the answer to that question is no. Still, I’m going with Chip Kelly and the home team Eagles in this match-up, especially since the Chiefs have Dunta Robinson on their roster.

Packers over Bengals- The Bengals got a solid win against the Steelers last week but the Packers offense looked borderline unstoppable last week against the Redskins. The Bengals defense is a significantly better unit, but I think the Packers will be able to put up enough points to win this one. If Andy Dalton plays well he could make things interesting though, and I’m not sold on the Packers defense yet. Still, it’s tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers in this match-up even on the road.

Rams over Cowboys- This might surprise some people, but the Rams are a good football team and they gave my Falcons a run for their money last week. The Cowboys couldn’t quite figure out the Kansas City Chiefs, and while the ‘Boys have a lot of talent on offense the Rams are a talented defensive football team that I think has a chance to match-up with the Cowboys on offense. Of course, if Dez Bryant goes off for 180 yards and a touchdown like Julio Jones did last week then I would be completely wrong on that. Still, I have a feeling the Rams will play well in this game and I think they can beat Tony Romo and the Cowboys on the road.

Chargers over Titans- I’m realizing I’m picking a lot of road teams here so far, but I think the Chargers are the better football team in this match-up and it’s tough not to go with Philip Rivers over Jake Locker here. If Locker can pass accurately and use his legs effectively they could give the Chargers defense some problems, but most of us know the likelihood of both of those things happening consistently for four quarters is not likely.

Vikings over Browns- This would have been a more interesting game prior to the Trent Richardson trade, and there is something funny about the Browns making this trade with the Colts just days before they travel up to Minnesota to play the Vikings given that the Vikings are the team that traded down with Cleveland to allow them to move up to number three overall and select Richardson in the first place. The Browns offense has been struggling even with Richardson in the lineup, and it’s hard to imagine them being better without him even with Josh Gordon returning from suspension. The Browns do have a good defense though, so I expect both teams to score less than 20 points. The Vikings have the offensive advantage in this match-up though thanks to Adrian Peterson and a solid game from Christian Ponder, Greg Jennings, Kyle Rudolph and Jerome Simpson should be enough to win this one for the purple. However, it is worth mentioning that this is the kind of game the Vikings traditionally find a way to inexplicably lose.

Patriots over Buccaneers- The Buccaneers aren’t in great shape right now and while the Patriots have barely managed to defeat two rookie quarterbacks in consecutive weeks I don’t think Tom Brady and that offense are going to stay out of synch for more than a couple weeks. That should play to the Bucs advantage this week, but I don’t think it will be enough to get them a victory.

Saints over Cardinals- Originally I had the Cardinals winning this game, but it’s tough to travel into the Superdome and get a victory, particularly since the Saints defense looks significantly better through two weeks than it ever did last season. Carson Palmer has reinvigorated the Cardinals offense, and their defense is still respectable despite the loss of defensive coordinator Ray Horton, but I don’t think it will be enough to go into the Saints’ house and beat Drew Brees on his home turf.

Redskins over Lions- The Lions have shown plenty of flashes through the first two weeks, but I think they are going to come up short against a Redskins team that will likely be very motivated and focused after starting 0-2. It remains to be seen if the ‘Skins defense can get on track, but going up against the Eagles and the Packers in the first two weeks isn’t exactly a fair barometer for a defense, especially since they were essentially the NFL’s guinea pigs against Chip Kelly and his up-tempo offensive scheme. I think the Redskins will be motivated and hungry this week, so I’m giving them the edge over the Lions.

Giants over Panthers- I definitely didn’t expect the Giants to start the season out 0-2, but if Eli Manning can’t stop throwing interceptions they may be in for a long year. However, I am well aware that not all of those turnovers are his fault and I expect he and the Giants to get back on track against the Panthers. It would be really nice if David Wilson would get his act together and stop fumbling the ball, but the addition of Brandon Jacobs back into the fold should help provide at least a little stability in the running game. Maybe Cam Newton and the Panthers will surprise me, but I think the Giants are going to be motivated after starting 0-2 just like the Redskins are. I’m not sure if I can say the same thing about the Panthers yet or not.

Texans over Ravens- The Ravens offense has been ineffective thus far this season and I don’t anticipate them getting back on track against the talented Texans defense. If Andre Johnson can play the Ravens will get to see the Texans explosive combination of Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Andre Johnson AND DeAndre Hopkins who was one of my favorite wide receivers in last year’s loaded draft class. He caught the game-winning touchdown last week against the Titans, so I think the Texans are ready to beat the Ravens on the road this week.

Dolphins over Falcons- It pains me to do this, but the Falcons got way too banged up last week to go on the road and beat the Dolphins in my opinion. I think Ryan Tannehill is about to go off, and Lamar Miller may have a big day as well. Not only that, but Brent Grimes is a sure bet to pick off Matt Ryan in this game and I just don’t think the Falcons will be able to overcome Roddy White not being at 100%, Steven Jackson being out (though Jason Snelling will hopefully get a lot of touches), Kroy Biermann being out for the year, Bradie Ewing being out for the year, AND Sean Weatherspoon being out until Week 11. That’s a lot to replace and account for in one week, and while I think they will be able to survive those set-backs long term I’m not sure they can get away with it this week, so I give the advantage to the Dolphins at home.

Bills over Jets- In the battle of rookie quarterbacks EJ Manuel and Geno Smith I’ve got to give Manuel and the Bills the edge in this one. The Jets defense is still a quality unit despite the departure of Darrelle Revis, but Geno Smith made some questionable decisions and poorly executed throws in the elements against New England last week, and I have been shocked by how well EJ Manuel has been playing thus far. The Bills coaching staff has done a great job managing him thus far, and I trust Nathaniel Hackett to gameplan well more than I trust Marty Mornhinweg to do the same, so I am going with the Bills in this one. May the best rookie QB win. I must say, I was shocked and critical of the Manuel pick at 16 overall, but defeating Geno Smith (who I expected to come off the board first of all the quarterbacks) would be a pretty big vindication for EJ Manuel and the entire Bills organization. It would also make me look stupid, so that’s probably why it will happen.

49ers over Colts- This is an interesting one and it will be worth monitoring just how involved Trent Richardson will be in this game given that he is unfamiliar with the system and has no chemistry with the team at all, but the 49ers are the better squad and are likely very pissed off after the way they lost that game to division rival and offseason Cold War opponent Seattle on Sunday Night. The 49ers should come out firing and it will take a terrific performance from Andrew Luck to leave Candlestick with a victory.

Seahawks over Jaguars- #BecauseJaguars and #AllRussellWilsonEverything

Bears over Steelers- I thought Marc Trestman might give the Bears offense a tune-up and he appears to have done just that, and it makes me happy to see Jay Cutler playing well. The Steelers offense is completely devoid of playmaking at this point and I don’t anticipate they will be able to take advantage of the Bears defense enough to come away with a victory even at home.

Broncos over Raiders- The Broncos are playing some terrific football right now and they are looking especially sharp on the offensive side of the ball so far. They simply have more talent than the Raiders do at this point, though I think Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden may give the Broncos defense a few headaches. It would be a truly fantastic upset if the Raiders were able to come away with a victory against the Broncos on the road, I just don’t see it happening.

Thanks for reading, hopefully I do better this week than I did during the openers. Enjoy the games this weekend!

–Tom

Current 2013 Pick Record: 9-6

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I thought this would be interesting to look at to see how certain players were doing thus far. There are some players who are playing great and exceeding expectations and there are players who are not living up to the hype thus far, just like every year. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at each players’ stat-line now that we are more than halfway through the season. Unfortunately the stats for the offensive lineman that were drafted in the first round are only current through week seven.

NFL Draft Pick Stats:

Sam Bradford- 201/334 (60.2%), 5.76 YPA, 12 TD/8 INT

Ndamukong Suh- 33 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 3 TFL, 1 INT

Gerald McCoy- 21 tackles, 0 sack, 5 TFL

Trent Williams- Only 2 sacks allowed through week 7

Eric Berry- 50 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 1 FF, 2 INT, 4 PD’s

Russell Okung- Injured for majority of season

Joe Haden- 34 tackles, 2 INT’s, 7 PD’s

Rolando McClain- 42 tackles, .5 sacks, 3 TFL, 3 PD’s

CJ Spiller- 41 attempts, 164 yards, 4.0 ypc, 18 receptions, 81 yards, 4.5 ypc, 1 TD, 1 fumble

Tyson Alualu- 24 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 TFL

Anthony Davis- 6 sacks allowed through week 7

Ryan Matthews- 87 attempts, 382 yards, 2 TD, 15 receptions, 92 yards, 3 fumbles (all lost)

Brandon Graham- 7 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 TFL, 1 FF

Earl Thomas- 47 tackles, 1 TFL, 4 INT’s, 5 PD’s

Jason Pierre-Paul- 10 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PD’s

Derrick Morgan- 5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 PD (injured in 4th game)

Mike Iupati- 1 sack allowed after 7 weeks

Maurkice Pouncey- 1.5 sacks allowed after 7 weeks

Sean Weatherspoon- 29 tackles, 1 sack, 1 PD

Kareem Jackson- 46 tackles, 2 INT’s, 7 PD’s

Jermaine Gresham- 40 receptions, 297 yards, 3 TD’s, 2 fumbles (1 lost)

Demaryius Thomas- 19 receptions, 266 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 fumbles (1 lost)

Bryan Bulaga- 4 sacks through week 7

Dez Bryant- 41 receptions, 539 yards, 5 TD’s, 14 PR’s- 202 yards, 2 TD’s

Tim Tebow- 1/1, 3 yards, 1 TD

Dan Williams- 16 tackles, 1 TFL

Devin McCourty- 48 tackles, 2 INT’s, 8 PD’s

Jared Odrick- 1 tackle, 1 TFL

Kyle Wilson- 18 tackles, 4 PD’s

Jahvid Best- 124 attempts, 380 yards, 3.1 ypc, 4 TD’s, 45 receptions, 360 yards, 1 TD, 1 Fumble (1 lost)

Jerry Hughes- 3 tackles

Patrick Robinson- 21 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PD’s

Now, obviously stats don’t tell the whole story, but considering the fact that I have not had time to watch all of these guys play individually (much less multiple times) I thought it would be interesting to compare some of their stats. Some guys have been better than others, and it is still far too early to determine who has “panned out” as a prospect and who hasn’t, but there are a few guys that warrant additional conversation: Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, Trent Williams, Eric Berry, Joe Haden, Earl Thomas, Kareem Jackson, Dez Bryant and Devin McCourty.

Sam Bradford- Bradford has definitely outperformed my expectations for him, but my expectations for him were that he would play very badly if he were to start as a rookie. He has certainly played better than I expected, and I can readily admit that I am wrong in that regard. Sam Bradford is not a bust, at least not yet. His stat line looks solid, especially for a rookie QB, but 210 of his 324 passing attempts have been on throws that are 10 yards or shorter as far as distance downfield from the line of scrimmage. He has attempted almost as many passes (54) on throws behind the line of scrimmage as he has on throws 11-20 yards downfield (56). I think it is fair to say that his stat line, therefore, is misleading. He is not being asked to make a lot of tough throws or difficult reads, and that makes sense. He is a rookie QB transitioning from a spread offense to a pro-style offense. I definitely underrated his intangibles which played a significant role in me thinking he was going to be a bust. I didn’t know whether I should believe everyone who said he was smart and made all of the calls at the line of scrimmage or whether I should believe my eyes that seemed to indicate he was taking audibles and calls from the sideline every play. I went with my gut and I was wrong, but I can admit that. However, I am going to be watching him carefully to see how he does when he is under pressure, how well he goes through his progressions and how often he checks down before going through all of his reads this weekend. I am very excited to see him play because I haven’t seen much of him this year.

Ndamukong Suh- Suh has frankly lived up to all of the hype he had going into the draft this year. 6.5 sacks for a rookie defensive tackle is absolutely absurd, especially at this point in the season. It is not unrealistic to assume that he could hit 10 sacks as a rookie defensive tackle on a young, relatively inexperienced defense. He is just an absolute beast, and that is why I had him graded as the top player in the draft this past year. He has played as well as anyone could have expected so far this year from a statistical standpoint, and I have a feeling he is going to be an incredibly disruptive and dominant player throughout his NFL career.

Trent Williams- Williams is another player that I was simply off about. I didn’t think he could stick at LT in the NFL, but it seems I was wrong. Through week seven he had only given up two sacks, which is impressive for a rookie LT (especially one that I thought had Pro-Bowl potential at RT but would only be a solid/pretty good starter at LT). I’m sure some of this has to do with having a veteran QB in Donovan McNabb under center, and though I have not watched him and scouted him specifically he seems to have played well this year. He has certainly outperformed my expectations for him as a LT thus far. I look forward to getting a chance to watch him play more soon so I can see how he plays for myself.

Eric Berry- I have not seen any Chiefs games this year, but Berry’s stat line is awfully impressive for a rookie safety. I think it is safe to say that he is going to be a dynamic playmaker in that secondary for a long time, and while I can’t specifically say how he has been playing in coverage or versus the run I know what he was capable of in college and he was definitely one of my highest rated prospects in last year’s draft class. Thus far, he seems to have been a good selection.

Joe Haden- Haden was a guy who seemed to have some controversy surrounding him. Now, I haven’t scouted him specifically this year, but his stat line is pretty impressive for a rookie corner on an overall bad team. Two interceptions and seven pass deflections speaks to the ball skills that I thought would make him a top corner in this league, but I am very much looking forward to re-watching the Browns-Falcons game so I can see how he played with my own eyes.

Earl Thomas- Thomas was another one of my favorite prospects from last draft. I had him in my top 10 on my Top 100 Big Board and for good reason: the guy is really talented. I loved the Seahawks draft last year with Russell Okung and Earl Thomas, but unfortunately Okung has been injured and has not had much of an impact yet. Thomas, however, is a different story: 47 tackles, four interceptions and five pass deflections? That is pretty incredible for a rookie defensive back, especially on a defense with as many issues as Seattle’s. He seems to be playing very well so far, and I hope he continues to make me look smart.

Kareem Jackson- Jackson was a guy that I thought was a very quality early 2nd round pick at corner, but he went #20 and that was a little earlier than I thought he would go. He has had his ups and downs this year, but overall he has been impressive for a rookie corner. Corners playing this early in their career are going to get beat, and he has had those experiences, but 46 tackles, two interceptions and seven pass deflections is a stat line you shouldn’t scoff at for a rookie corner. I liked him as a corner coming out of Alabama, and he seems to be playing well for the Texans thus far.

Dez Bryant- Ah, Dez Bryant. The “prima-donna” WR with bad work ethic and serious character concerns. What a joke that has turned out to be. I thought Dez Bryant had top 10 talent and pro-bowl potential written all over him, and so far it looks like I (and many other people who didn’t get sucked in by the media’s bullshit) were right. He is a dynamic playmaker as a receiver and as a punt returner and he is one of the only reasons the Cowboys are still worth watching at this point.

Devin McCourty- McCourty was a guy that I thought was a little overrated when the draft finally came around, but I was pretty surprised to see him get selected in the 1st round. He seems to be playing well though and I can admit that I was off on him. 48 tackles, two interceptions and eight pass deflections is a nice stat line, and the Patriots are one of the best teams in the NFL at drafting players that make quick impacts and transition well to the NFL. Clearly they saw something I didn’t in McCourty, but they seem to have made the right choice so far.

I would love to go through every draft pick and write a blurb about them, but it would take a really long time and I am so long-winded that this would easily be a 3,000-5,000 word blog post, so I am going to stop it here. I am going to get to work on a new mock draft as well as some RB rankings shortly, but I thought that it would be interesting to see how some of the most highly publicized draft picks have performed thus far. Later on I might talk about some guys who were not drafted in the 1st round who are having a significant impact if I have time.

Thanks for reading!

–Tom