Tag Archive: Miami Dolphins


NFL Weekly Picks: Week 3

Hey guys, sorry I didn’t have time to get my weekly picks post up last week. I just moved back to Minnesota so now that I am settling in hopefully I will be able to get into a groove with all of these weekly posts that I want to do. So, without further ado, here are my NFL Weekly Picks!

Eagles over Chiefs- I think the Eagles’ offense will be too much for the Chiefs to slow down, but it may come down to whether or not the Eagles defense can stop anyone. Thus far the answer to that question is no. Still, I’m going with Chip Kelly and the home team Eagles in this match-up, especially since the Chiefs have Dunta Robinson on their roster.

Packers over Bengals- The Bengals got a solid win against the Steelers last week but the Packers offense looked borderline unstoppable last week against the Redskins. The Bengals defense is a significantly better unit, but I think the Packers will be able to put up enough points to win this one. If Andy Dalton plays well he could make things interesting though, and I’m not sold on the Packers defense yet. Still, it’s tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers in this match-up even on the road.

Rams over Cowboys- This might surprise some people, but the Rams are a good football team and they gave my Falcons a run for their money last week. The Cowboys couldn’t quite figure out the Kansas City Chiefs, and while the ‘Boys have a lot of talent on offense the Rams are a talented defensive football team that I think has a chance to match-up with the Cowboys on offense. Of course, if Dez Bryant goes off for 180 yards and a touchdown like Julio Jones did last week then I would be completely wrong on that. Still, I have a feeling the Rams will play well in this game and I think they can beat Tony Romo and the Cowboys on the road.

Chargers over Titans- I’m realizing I’m picking a lot of road teams here so far, but I think the Chargers are the better football team in this match-up and it’s tough not to go with Philip Rivers over Jake Locker here. If Locker can pass accurately and use his legs effectively they could give the Chargers defense some problems, but most of us know the likelihood of both of those things happening consistently for four quarters is not likely.

Vikings over Browns- This would have been a more interesting game prior to the Trent Richardson trade, and there is something funny about the Browns making this trade with the Colts just days before they travel up to Minnesota to play the Vikings given that the Vikings are the team that traded down with Cleveland to allow them to move up to number three overall and select Richardson in the first place. The Browns offense has been struggling even with Richardson in the lineup, and it’s hard to imagine them being better without him even with Josh Gordon returning from suspension. The Browns do have a good defense though, so I expect both teams to score less than 20 points. The Vikings have the offensive advantage in this match-up though thanks to Adrian Peterson and a solid game from Christian Ponder, Greg Jennings, Kyle Rudolph and Jerome Simpson should be enough to win this one for the purple. However, it is worth mentioning that this is the kind of game the Vikings traditionally find a way to inexplicably lose.

Patriots over Buccaneers- The Buccaneers aren’t in great shape right now and while the Patriots have barely managed to defeat two rookie quarterbacks in consecutive weeks I don’t think Tom Brady and that offense are going to stay out of synch for more than a couple weeks. That should play to the Bucs advantage this week, but I don’t think it will be enough to get them a victory.

Saints over Cardinals- Originally I had the Cardinals winning this game, but it’s tough to travel into the Superdome and get a victory, particularly since the Saints defense looks significantly better through two weeks than it ever did last season. Carson Palmer has reinvigorated the Cardinals offense, and their defense is still respectable despite the loss of defensive coordinator Ray Horton, but I don’t think it will be enough to go into the Saints’ house and beat Drew Brees on his home turf.

Redskins over Lions- The Lions have shown plenty of flashes through the first two weeks, but I think they are going to come up short against a Redskins team that will likely be very motivated and focused after starting 0-2. It remains to be seen if the ‘Skins defense can get on track, but going up against the Eagles and the Packers in the first two weeks isn’t exactly a fair barometer for a defense, especially since they were essentially the NFL’s guinea pigs against Chip Kelly and his up-tempo offensive scheme. I think the Redskins will be motivated and hungry this week, so I’m giving them the edge over the Lions.

Giants over Panthers- I definitely didn’t expect the Giants to start the season out 0-2, but if Eli Manning can’t stop throwing interceptions they may be in for a long year. However, I am well aware that not all of those turnovers are his fault and I expect he and the Giants to get back on track against the Panthers. It would be really nice if David Wilson would get his act together and stop fumbling the ball, but the addition of Brandon Jacobs back into the fold should help provide at least a little stability in the running game. Maybe Cam Newton and the Panthers will surprise me, but I think the Giants are going to be motivated after starting 0-2 just like the Redskins are. I’m not sure if I can say the same thing about the Panthers yet or not.

Texans over Ravens- The Ravens offense has been ineffective thus far this season and I don’t anticipate them getting back on track against the talented Texans defense. If Andre Johnson can play the Ravens will get to see the Texans explosive combination of Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Andre Johnson AND DeAndre Hopkins who was one of my favorite wide receivers in last year’s loaded draft class. He caught the game-winning touchdown last week against the Titans, so I think the Texans are ready to beat the Ravens on the road this week.

Dolphins over Falcons- It pains me to do this, but the Falcons got way too banged up last week to go on the road and beat the Dolphins in my opinion. I think Ryan Tannehill is about to go off, and Lamar Miller may have a big day as well. Not only that, but Brent Grimes is a sure bet to pick off Matt Ryan in this game and I just don’t think the Falcons will be able to overcome Roddy White not being at 100%, Steven Jackson being out (though Jason Snelling will hopefully get a lot of touches), Kroy Biermann being out for the year, Bradie Ewing being out for the year, AND Sean Weatherspoon being out until Week 11. That’s a lot to replace and account for in one week, and while I think they will be able to survive those set-backs long term I’m not sure they can get away with it this week, so I give the advantage to the Dolphins at home.

Bills over Jets- In the battle of rookie quarterbacks EJ Manuel and Geno Smith I’ve got to give Manuel and the Bills the edge in this one. The Jets defense is still a quality unit despite the departure of Darrelle Revis, but Geno Smith made some questionable decisions and poorly executed throws in the elements against New England last week, and I have been shocked by how well EJ Manuel has been playing thus far. The Bills coaching staff has done a great job managing him thus far, and I trust Nathaniel Hackett to gameplan well more than I trust Marty Mornhinweg to do the same, so I am going with the Bills in this one. May the best rookie QB win. I must say, I was shocked and critical of the Manuel pick at 16 overall, but defeating Geno Smith (who I expected to come off the board first of all the quarterbacks) would be a pretty big vindication for EJ Manuel and the entire Bills organization. It would also make me look stupid, so that’s probably why it will happen.

49ers over Colts- This is an interesting one and it will be worth monitoring just how involved Trent Richardson will be in this game given that he is unfamiliar with the system and has no chemistry with the team at all, but the 49ers are the better squad and are likely very pissed off after the way they lost that game to division rival and offseason Cold War opponent Seattle on Sunday Night. The 49ers should come out firing and it will take a terrific performance from Andrew Luck to leave Candlestick with a victory.

Seahawks over Jaguars- #BecauseJaguars and #AllRussellWilsonEverything

Bears over Steelers- I thought Marc Trestman might give the Bears offense a tune-up and he appears to have done just that, and it makes me happy to see Jay Cutler playing well. The Steelers offense is completely devoid of playmaking at this point and I don’t anticipate they will be able to take advantage of the Bears defense enough to come away with a victory even at home.

Broncos over Raiders- The Broncos are playing some terrific football right now and they are looking especially sharp on the offensive side of the ball so far. They simply have more talent than the Raiders do at this point, though I think Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden may give the Broncos defense a few headaches. It would be a truly fantastic upset if the Raiders were able to come away with a victory against the Broncos on the road, I just don’t see it happening.

Thanks for reading, hopefully I do better this week than I did during the openers. Enjoy the games this weekend!

–Tom

Current 2013 Pick Record: 9-6

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Give Tebow credit where credit is due: He wins games, and he can win ugly. But is he consistently accurate enough to be a quality NFL starter? I have my doubts.

Tim Tebow led a very surprising and impressive comeback by scoring 15 points in the last 2:44 of the 4th quarter against Miami Dolphins on Sunday which led to an eventual 18-15 win in overtime. As improbable as that was, that has come to be expected from Tebow. He has done it before both in college and in the NFL, and as many of his supporters say: He just wins.

Tebow isn’t quite the athlete that Mike Vick was, but he is one of the most polarizing figures that I have seen since Vick was an Atlanta Falcon. His supporters almost refuse to see fault in his performance and point to his win-loss record, and his detractors point out the competition he faces and how ugly some of the wins are (especially regarding his performance). Somehow Tebow managed to completely validate both sides of the argument by struggling with ball placement, not processing information quickly, struggling with timing a bit and throwing some pretty bad passes during the majority of the game. But he seemingly flicked a switch and put together some quality throws and led the Broncos back to an improbable victory against the woeful, win-less Miami Dolphins. He flashed his potential because of his mobility, his ability to throw on the run, and his ability to make quality NFL throws when his team needs it most.

However, I still don’t buy Tim Tebow as a quality NFL starter.

I think that an important part of being a NFL quarterback is consistency. I haven’t watched a lot of Tebow as a Broncos starter (talking about his playing time last season) but my impression of him from what I have seen is that he hasn’t been very consistent. He hasn’t always made great decisions, hasn’t always placed the ball well, and from what I saw of him yesterday he didn’t seem to react to pressure that well when he was forced to stay with-in the pocket. When he had to stay inside the pocket instead of scrambling outside the pocket he seemed to get sacked, but when he could escape he could make something interesting happen. At least that was my impression.

Tebow’s throwing motion is still a concern for me as well. In a clean pocket without pressure it is clear that his throwing motion has improved, but when he is flustered and under duress he tends to revert to a throwing motion that resembles what it was back when he came out of Florida. That is concerning, and comes back to his consistency issues. If he doesn’t have similar mechanics on each throw (especially pertaining to his throwing mechanics) it makes it more difficult to deliver consistently accurate passes.

I also don’t understand why this comeback is being so highly touted. Yes, it was very impressive to see him score 15 points in the last 2:44 and then to lead the team to a win in overtime. But it was against the DOLPHINS! This team has a legitimate chance at the #1 overall pick and if they don’t make a coaching change soon they have a slight chance of going completely win-less. They are a truly awful football team and that demeans the comeback to me. Yes, a win is a win, but I don’t think all comebacks are created equal. This comeback was only possible because of Tebow’s own inadequacy throughout the rest of the game, and while he turned it on when it mattered most he still put himself in that position with poor, inaccurate passing in the previous 57 minutes. You have to give him credit where credit is due for coming back and winning, but I think we need to pump the breaks when talking about the comeback because of the circumstances. Namely, why they were in that situation and who they were in that situation against.

That’s just my opinion obviously, feel free to comment with your own thoughts.

Thanks for reading!

–Tom

Defensive Notes:

Series 1:
-Good run D, Babs beat a one on one block.
-Good heads-up play by Abe to get an INT on a tipped pass.

Series 2:
-Empty backfield, zone coverage. This is why we had to go get Ray Edwards. No pass rush with the front 4 and Henne completes it to Bess underneath in Lofton’s zone.
-Great play by Biermann vs the run, knifed inside and tackled the back for a short gain.
-Got a little heat on Henne, but not much. On the opposite side the WR turned Dunta around and had a step on him. Could have given up a big play if Henne had thrown that way.

Series 3:
-Easy INT by Grimes. He bit on the play action but quickly recovered and made a nice play on the ball, easy INT. Great recovery by Grimes. Henne thought he had a free completion, nice play by Grimes.

Series 4:
-Franks flew off the corner to pressure Henne, could have had a sack but didn’t back down. Henne got hit and the ball was dropped.
-Sidbury showed some speed, forced Henne to step up but he had room to run and got the 1st down on 3rd and 8.
-Jerry stayed blocked way too long. Needs to something happen vs a 1 on 1 block or he needs to be replaced/upgraded.
-Sidbury showed more speed off the edge, but he can’t get around the OT on the outside. If he doesn’t step up this year then RE is a huge need for us.
-Chris Owens got absolutely burned. Dime back at most.

Series 5:
-Matt Moore wisely didn’t force the ball downfield.
-Peters working well vs 1 on 1 blocks, Sidbury showed a good motor. On the surface his good motor and edge speed make him intriguing, but he just can’t manage to get the edge or get off blocks. Moore threw a wobbly ball on the run.

Series 6:
-#36 looked BAAD in coverage. #39 misplayed the ball as well. Cliff Matthews got upfield and applied some pressure though. Good to see.
-Moore threw a good ball in the face of pressure here.
-#39 has whiffed on two hits in a row.
-Matthews with a good burst, impressive swim move. He might make the team if he keeps showing ability. Peters showed a good motor to chase down and tackle the RB in the flat.

Series 7:
-Owens showed some ability as a blitzer coming off the edge here.
-Chris Matthews has flashed some speed off the edge.
-Good tackle in flat by Franks. Seems to be a good tackler and blitzer which I like.
-Sidbury and Matthews are flying off the edge but keep getting knocked down as they try to get the corner. Sidbury needs to get stronger. Jerry and Sidbury both had a slot to drag down Moore but he got away.

Series 8:
-Matt Moore got leveled and threw a ball up, but Dent LEVELED Moore.

Series 9:
-Matthews has shown some speed and shoulder dip, just gets knocked down too much.

Series 10:
-Owens is a good tackling corner.
-Matt Moore looks ok. Solid arm strength and accuracy, some toughness. Good patience in pocket, good feel to step up. Deals with pressure well. Good anticipation.
-Edmond Gates has looked good. Great speed, good hands as well.
-Jerry just doesn’t shed blocks well. Doesn’t look disruptive.
-Robert James has looked good. I think he’ll make the 53 man roster.
-TD Edmond Gates. Nice catch, nice throw by Moore too.
-I like Darrin Walls, I think he’ll be the 5th CB. I’d keep him over Owens at this point.

Series 11:
-Jerry seemed to flash a nice move inside as he got a nice hit on Devlin.
-Matthews with a nice get off, good bull rush and shed, plus a good motor to sack Devlin. Nice play, I hope he finds  away to make the 53 man.

Series 12:
-Jerry beat his man and would have had a sack if he hadn’t drawn a BAD holding call. The OL had his arm around Jerry’s neck.
-Matthews has a good motor. Would have loved to see him at the East-West Shrine Game.

Thanks for reading! I’m going to preview some college games that everyone should watch, and I’ll be watching the Wisconsin-UNLV game and posting a write-up once it’s over and I have time to type everything up.

–Tom

Falcons Preseason Post:

Offensive notes:

Series 1:
-Bad throw to Julio, inaccurate pass by Ryan.
-Good play fake. Vontae Davis with good coverage on Julio. Ryan threw a better ball but it was to a tight window, well defended by Davis.
-False start on Sam Baker.
-Shotgun, Ryan stepped up, got hit and the throw was incomplete. Terrible first series.

Series 2:
-Turner with a huge run between the tackles. Good blocks by Clabo, Reynolds and Mughelli to spring him. Clabo and Reynolds created a huge lane, I could have ran through it.
-Turner is running well, also with more power than I remember. Not overly explosive, but that’s not surprising considering the workload he’s had in recent years. Blalock got to the second level well, Baker with a nice down block on the DT.
-Great play fake, forced a pass to Tony Gonzalez in double coverage though. Had Turner WIDE open in the flat with 5 yards of green around him. He needs to stop staring Gonzalez down so much, he’s almost stunting some of his development as a QB. Normally Ryan would find Turner in the flat.
-Ryan stepped up and hit Julio on a drag route and he got a lot of YAC. Just what we need from him, turning small gains into significant ones. Good pass pro also.
-Very nice run by Snelling. Great cut back, good block by Baker gave him a seam. Nice vision. Baker has shown some solid run blocking. Not drive blocking, but wall-off blocking and doing his job.
-Turner with a TD, needs to protect the ball better though.

Series 3:
-7 in the box, 8 if you include the safety 6-7 yards off the LOS. Ryan still went with the run. 1 high coverage with Roddy and Julio getting pressed in man coverage? I’d check out of that and take a shot, especially because the safety will probably shade towards Roddy’s side, leaving Julio in one on one which could be a mismatch. As is, a linebacker came in unblocked because the box was stacked and he hit Turner in the backfield, the FS cleaned it up. Ryan should see that and check to a pass.
-3 WR, 1 back, 1 TE. Good pocket for Ryan, delivers a nice ball to Julio downfield. That’s a 20+ yard pass play right there. Second 20+ yard pass play of the game. Exactly what I was hoping for from him.
-End around to Julio, boy can he move. Needs to tuck the ball away securely though.
-OL has gotten a good push. Good to see that.
-Good check down to Snelling. This is against 2nd team Dolphins D though.
-Great catch by Weems. Good to see him getting action on offense. Love his potential in the slot. High throw, but great catch away from his body.
-Smart check down instead of forcing it downfield. Mularkey tried to go with a 2 TE set and surprise with a play action pass since we run so often out of that set, but the Dolphins weren’t fooled at all.
-Jared Odrick just made a nice play to beat Baker 1 on 1 versus the run and tackle Gartrell Johnson. Very nice swim move.
-HD caught a touchdown here. He didn’t look very fast on his TD, but Ryan threw a good ball perfectly in stride on the score and HD made a nice catch in traffic. I’m not sure HD is going to beat a lot of people deep though.

Series 4:
-JPW has more zip on his throws than he did last year and definitely more than he did coming out of Alabama. Meier with a nice catch away from his body. He has great hands, I think he’s the new Finn.
-The backup LG got beat here. Looked like Andrew Jackson. He gave up pressure 1 on 1 and it rushed JPW who overthrew Peelle.
-Snelling running well. Good to have him back.
-Good read and throw by Wilson here but Nate Ness made a nice diving deflection to force a FG.

Series 5:
-Weems with another nice catch. Has to be in the slot WR mix.
-JPW has good zip on his throws. Good route and quickness to create separation on curl. Good hands by HD.
-Wilson has made some nice throws. HD making some nice catches as well. Good to see.
-Don’t really see anything special from Gartrell Johnson.
-JPW comfortable in offense, good cadence to get DE to jump early.
-Weems almost made a great grab. Perfect throw from JPW, but Benny Sapp knocked the blal out.
-INT by JPW.

Series 6:
-Nothing special in Gartrell Johnson… let’s see Quizz.
-Good move from Odrick. Beat Jackson outside, good burst and hand usage. Should have a good year.

Series 7:
-Edds sacked JPW, came completely free. He’s a good blitzer and he timed it up well, nice play.
-Weems with a catch underneath in traffic. He is killing anyone’s chances of making this team as a #5 WR the way he is running routes and catching the football.
-JPW got hit hard, threw a ball into coverage but it feel incomplete. He started well, hasn’t faced pressure effectively though.

Series 8:
-A good catch on sideline by Weems. I like what I’m seeing from him a lot. I’ve been high on him as a WR since I rewatched the Pittsburgh game from week 1 last year.
-JPW got sacked from his blindside and lost the fumble. Jimmy Wilson made a nice hit on the blitz and forced the fumble. He has been everywhere, he’s a 7th round pick from Montana and the announcers will not stop talking about him. Would be surprised if he didn’t make the team.

Series 9:
-Brandon Harvey made the catch of the day so far, amazing extension and toe tap on sideline for completion.
-Antoine Smith showed some burst and speed, good hands as well.
-Good burst, nice vision/cut and ran through an arm tackle or two. Smith and Quizz should be battling for the #3 spot, Gartrell should get cut.
-Great leg drive by Quizz as he got some TOUGH yards.
-Wilson has showed some accuracy, zip. Not sure he will ever be a starter, but can be a quality back-up in my opinion. Don’t think he handles pressure in the pocket well enough to ever be someone’s Plan A.
-Again, Wilson doesn’t handle pressure that well.

Misc Off:
-Good cut by Quizz. He has a LOT of quickness.
-Froman has missed two throws here. Threw it away on the next play though, showing some maturity.
-Solid rollout, checkdown. I really don’t like all of those play action rollout plays. Cuts off half the field.
-Bad throw here behind his man, I’m not convinced he can take the job from JPW from what I’ve seen.
-Brandon Harvey is impressing me. Not a great play/throw by Froman though. Harvey looks like PS material if he is young enough.
-Froman’s ball placement has not been impressive today.
-I don’t think Froman’s arm is better than JPW. Would be surprising to me if he beat him out.
-Nice throw down the seam, good zip, but the next throw was a pass with a ton of air under it and it fell incomplete.
-Interception by Froman. He forced it into coverage and it was not accurate. JPW has to be the heavy favorite for the #3 QB job.

Sorry I haven’t posted anything in so long. I haven’t had much time at all to watch film or write stuff up being the Vice President of my fraternity and working for my college’s football team during two-a-days. School has just started, so I’m going to make a much more concerted effort to get back to my roots and watch a lot of film. So enjoy this post, and I’ll start working on more film ASAP.

–Tom

Scouting Report:

Mark Ingram is one of the most well-rounded running backs to enter the draft in years.

Positives: Ingram is a very talented RB. He has good speed and can get the corner (probably 4.48-4.5 speed approximately) and has pretty good burst to hit a hole or to break off a nice chunk of yardage. He runs with good power, runs through arm tackles easily, has impressive leg drive and has great vision to run between the tackles. He secures the ball well and rarely fumbles and he has shown some ability as a pass protector. He also catches well in the flat or out of the backfield even though he isn’t a featured receiver in their offense, but he has soft enough hands to catch screens or passes in the flat in the NFL. Does a good job of getting North/South and doesn’t waste a lot of time dancing around in the backfield wasting steps. Does a very good job of patiently allowing his blocks to set up but then identifies the cut-back lane and plants and drives very effectively.

Negatives: Isn’t the most explosive back and doesn’t have elite speed to break off huge runs or to get the corner and won’t be as effective on toss or stretch plays in the NFL as he was in college as far as getting the edge. He could stand to improve as a pass protector but most rookies coming from the college ranks need improvement, he at least has experience doing so. Might not have the highest ceiling because he has shown so much of what he can do at Alabama.

Overall: Ingram is a special running back prospect, not because he is an insanely electrifying athlete but because he is a quality athlete that plays intelligently and does things the right way. He is about as well rounded as running backs get coming out of college and should be able to contribute, if not start, immediately once he reaches the NFL. I haven’t seen him block a lot as a pass protector, but given some coaching I’m sure he can develop into a reliable pass blocker should he be asked to stay in and protect. He is a rare player in that he is an every down player in a league that does not have many of those left. He can run the ball between the tackles to wear down a defense, he can catch the ball out of the backfield on screens or on a check down, and he can stay in to pass protect on 3rd down and long on obvious passing situations. He should be a top 20 lock, but you never know what will happen on draft day. In a league where teams seem content to draft running backs later and later Ingram will reward whoever drafts him in round one with a very consistent and dependable running back for the next seven or eight years.

Projection: Top 20. He shouldn’t get past the Dolphins at #15 or the Patriots at #17 but if he does someone could very well have a steal on their hands. He isn’t a flashy, unreal athlete but he is extremely well rounded. That means he won’t go in the top five, but he will be worth every penny you pay him.

SKILLS 1-poor, 2-weak, 3-above average,4-very good, 5-elite

SPEED: 4.0
POWER: 5.0
AGILITY: 4.0
VISION: 5.0
HANDS: 3.5
BLOCKING: 3.0

Hopefully you all enjoyed my scouting report on Mark Ingram. In the coming days I should have a report up on James Carpenter, Greg McElroy, Marcell Dareus and Julio Jones. So keep checking back in!

Thanks for reading!

–Tom