This blog post is focused on Case Keenum, the quarterback of the Houston Cougars. He is rather well known for his gaudy passing numbers but there is a lot more to a quarterback than impressive stats. Read on to find out why Keenum will be lucky to be drafted barring significant improvement as a senior despite all of the accolades he may get for his passing production.
Analysis of Game: Houston @ Oklahoma State
When I watched this game I was actually watching the game so I could find highlights to use for a highlight reel for Andre Sexton. It’s a long story, but the Sports Agency I have an internship with represents him and I need to put a highlight reel together for him. But one of the games I watched today (I watched four) featured Case Keenum and Houston against Oklahoma State, and I figured I would give Keenum some of my attention while I watched out for noteworthy plays for Sexton. I will state ahead of time that I am not a believer in Keenum and I think he is the essence of a system quarterback, I don’t think he has a very strong arm, I don’t think he can read defenses well and I think he is worth a 6th or a 7th round pick at best as of right now. Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, we can get on with what I saw when I had the opportunity to watch him in this game:
First of all, Keenum operates out of a pure spread offense and is almost exclusively in the shotgun. If you haven’t read any of my previous posts, the reason this is such an issue is because when QB’s spend the majority, if not all of their time in the shotgun, they don’t get a chance to improve their footwork on their three, five and seven step drops. In addition, they don’t learn to read defenses from under center (where it is more difficult to judge what the defense is doing than when you are standing back in shotgun) and spread offense QB’s regularly look at only their first or maybe second read. All of those things are extremely hindering once they get to the NFL, and that results in a very high bust rate in spread offense QB’s. I was not surprised that he was operating out of the shotgun that often, but still it is disappointing not to see a sizeable percentage of snaps from under center mixed in.
Second of all, Keenum did not strike me as an impressive QB despite his gaudy numbers and reputation as a quality QB. He panicked easily in the face of pressure, he left the pocket prematurely on a regular basis, and he rarely, if ever, went through more than one or two of his progressions the entire game. He forced passes into coverage, threw passes across his body at times and showed very little ability to buy time in the pocket by stepping up while still looking downfield. He didn’t look like he had very good mechanics, and when he is facing pressure he is more than willing to throw off of his back foot with no regard to his usual mechanics as far as I can tell. To his credit, he is accurate when he isn’t pressured as far as I can tell, and his throwing motion looks relatively clean. He also showed more mobility than I would have previously expected as he scrambled up the middle, bounced the run outside to avoid pursuit from the backside and scored on a 20 or so yard touchdown run in this game. So if the play breaks down he is a threat to run, which helps his value.
Overall I can’t say I am impressed with Keenum at all, but it was good to finally get a feel for how he plays the game. But I value poise under pressure, leadership and the ability to read defenses quite a bit, and Keenum did not impress me in any of those regards when I watched him in this game. I project him as a 7th round pick right now, but we will see how he looks during the season this year. You might look at his stats and think, wow, a quarterback who put up 5671 yards, who completed 70.3% of his passes, averaged 8.10 yards per attempt, and had 44 touchdowns with only 15 interceptions (that includes a whopping six interceptions against Air Force in Houston’s bowl game), he must really be something. Well, not quite in my opinion. I learned my lesson about trusting stats, especially when it comes to spread offense quarterbacks, a long time ago. I thought I’d pass that along to anyone who reads my blog.
So now when your friends talk about how good Case Keenum is, feel free to tell them exactly why that may just not be the case.
Thanks for reading!
–Tom
Tom,
First of all. You’re an idiot. You base your entire opinion on Case off 1 game? Please tell me this isn’t so. Please tell me you are a smart enough “football guy” to know that you just can’t do that. Howabout watching the other, idk, maybe 38 other games he’s played so far? Oh, by the way, that second pic you show of him isn’t web him! I don’t know where u got that one. By the way, we played Air Force NOT Navy in last year’s bowl game. Next time, do a little more research dude.
1. I fixed my error where I said Navy instead of Air Force, that was an honest mistake. I thought I caught all my typos, but I missed that one. Thanks for pointing it out.
2. I did not base my opinion of Keenum off of 1 game, this was simply the most recent one I’ve watched and it was off of college game tape, not a live game like the other two times I’ve seen him. I also have the Air Force game downloaded, though I haven’t watched it yet.
3. If that second picture really isn’t him, then blame Google Images, not me.
4. I’m not dooming him to be a failure yet obviously, he still has another year to improve. But he is definitely going to have a lot to adjust to if he doesn’t change a some of the things I mentioned in my post.
Thanks for your comment, but try not making so many assumptions beforehand.
–Tom
I watched him in the Air Force game. Trust me Tom you’re not going to change your opinion of him after seeing that game. From that single game I’ve seen of him, I would say he can compete for a backup position in the NFL. But the key word is compete because he’s not good enough for a team to draft with the purpose of developing him. I agree, he looks like a 6th or 7th rounder at best from what I’ve seen.
Sounds like you must be a Houston fan… Yea he is a heck of a system QB for the Cougars but he won’t amass to anything in the NFL. If it was up to me I wouldn’t even draft him. He is no better than Graham Harrell and he went undrafted. What does Keenum have over him that warrants him to be drafted?
Tom…just curious to know if you have kept up with Keenum in the year since your July 2010 story, and if so, has your opinion of Keenum changed. Obviously the system is putting up even gaudier stats. But any changes WRT his arm strength or reads?
I have kept up with Keenum to a degree and he is doing some special things this year, but overall my opinion has not changed. I will definitely do my due diligence and take a look at a few more games this year (I watched parts of the game when he broke the record last week) to get a feeling for how he has progressed since I wrote this scouting report. He’s obviously a good kid with a good work ethic, plenty of determination and arguably a pretty high football IQ. He’s going to have a lot to overcome to make it to the NFL given the offense he played in, but he has obviously progressed to some degree considering his performance thus far this season. So keep an eye out later on this year, I’ll definitely have an updated report on him.
He seems pretty good now
I am a UH alum from the Andre Ware days so it pains me to say this but I don’t think Keenum will make much of an NFL QB. He may get drafted but I would be surprised if he makes a name for himself. Kevin Kolb was nearly as good before Keenum and he is about to be dumped in the landfill of failed NFL QB’s by the amazingly famous and talented JOHN SKELTON. I hope Keenum proves me wrong, I really do, because I would love to watch his NFL career and beam with UH pride. But I am highly skeptical. I was skeptical of Tebow also, who seems intent on proving everyone wrong. Good for him, and good for me (Broncos season-ticket holder). Maybe Keenum has that same fire.
I am an UH alum also; and I am a board member of texanstalk.com where I go under the SN 76Texan.
I had watched Houston QBs beginning with Danny Davis in the old SWC.
Keenum is the best of them all. I recently started a thread on texanstalk studying Keenum’s game.
With regards, I totally disagree with Tom.
I grade Keenum very highly; if not for his Brees-like stature (Keenum is actually a little on the plus side,) I see him as a first rounder for sure.
Here’s a piece that mention Brees and the Boilemakers’ spread offense:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/stewart_mandel/01/29/tebow-tiller/index.html
BTW, I called for Newton to be the #1 draft pick and that Gabbert wasn’t worth a first round pick.