2012 1st Round Recap:

1^st- Indianapolis: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford:
Analysis: We all knew this pick was coming. It was the right pick for the Colts to make and it will be a treat to compare Luck and Griffin as they embark on their NFL careers in very different settings. I still believe Luck is the safer pick, and he was the guy you had to pick #1 overall if you were the Colts.
2^nd- Washington: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor:
Analysis: RGIII capped off a fantastic season with a meteoric rise up the draft boards to #2 overall. He has as much potential as Mike Vick did when he came into the NFL in my opinion, but he has a much better work ethic and football IQ than Vick did when he came into the NFL. He’s got the upside to be the best player to come out of this draft class, but I don’t think he’s ready to start Day One and needs some time to develop. He’s got amazing upside, but he’s riskier than Luck in my eyes.
3^rd- Cleveland (F/ MIN): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama:
I didn’t see this coming, but props to Cleveland for getting their guy and sacrificing a few mid-late round picks to do it. They wanted Richardson all along and they made sure Tampa Bay didn’t move up to get him. Clearly Tampa Bay had their eyes set on upgrading the RB position as they moved back into round one for Doug Martin, so Cleveland wasn’t just imagining things. Richardson is a player that can help take the pressure off of Colt McCoy or Brandon Weeden depending on who wins the starting job, and having a running back of that caliber definitely makes it easier to bring a young quarterback along.
4^th- Minnesota (F/CLE): Matt Kalil, OT, Southern Cal:
Analysis: I’ll admit, I didn’t expect the Vikings to make this pick. I expected them to take Justin Blackmon or Morris Claiborne, but ultimately I think they made the right decision here (and picked up three mid-late round draft picks in the process). Kalil will immediately solidify their offensive line by protecting Christian Ponder’s blind side and allows the Vikings to shift Charlie Johnson inside to guard where he is a better fit. Great pick by the Vikings, even if I didn’t think they would end up making it when the day began.
5^th- Jacksonville (F/ TB): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State:
Analysis: I don’t do this very often, but I have to toot my own horn on this one. I am probably one of the few people who filled out a mock draft that accurately predicted the Jaguars trading up from #7 overall to #5 overall with Tampa Bay to select Justin Blackmon, and I am very proud of that. Trades in mocks rarely, if ever, happen and I included one in my final mock draft (which I rarely do) and it actually panned out. So I have to pat myself on the back for that one. I’m not of the opinion that Blackmon is a true #1 receiver and I think he is better in a #2 role, which means I’m not wild about this pick. Don’t get me wrong, I like Blackmon and I think he can be a dynamic NFL receiver, I just don’t know if he can be “the guy” that makes life easier on the rest of the receivers on a team’s roster.
6^th- Dallas (F/ STL): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU:
Analysis: This was a surprising trade (one that I did NOT predict) and I certainly did not expect the Cowboys to end up with Morris Claiborne. The Cowboys clearly wanted to upgrade the CB position and even though I think they overpaid for Brandon Carr in free agency this acquisition definitely improves their secondary. Claiborne shouldn’t be forced into the starting role too early, but he should be comfortable playing nickel right out of the gate. I’m a big fan of Claiborne, so I love this aggressive move to go get him.
7^th- Tampa Bay (F/ JAX): Mark Barron, SS, Alabama:
Analysis: This was the first pick I really didn’t like in the 1st round. I believe Barron is the top safety in this draft class based on everything I have seen, but I had him graded as a late 1st round pick and he went #7 overall. I clearly missed the memo about Mark Barron developing from a possible 1st round safety with some flaws in coverage into a hybrid of Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, but if Barron doesn’t develop into a Pro-Bowl safety that makes consistent plays in coverage then this will prove to be a huge reach. We know he’s a guy who can help versus the run, make big hits, and he has shown the ability to make plays on the ball, but you don’t pick a safety in the 1st round in this day and age unless he is a terrific coverage safety, and I don’t think Mark Barron fits that bill.
8^th- Miami: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M:
Analysis: I’ve been a fan of Ryan Tannehill for a long time, so it was nice to see him get drafted in the top 10 despite having some flaws in his game. I love his intangibles, but I worry about his issues closing out games in the 4th quarter. I don’t think that potential flaw will prohibit him from being a quality starting quarterback, but I don’t think he is a “franchise” quarterback in the same sense as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are. So while I think the Dolphins got a quality quarterback prospect I also acknowledge that Tannehill has limited starting experience and traditionally quarterbacks with under 2.5-3 years of starting experience struggle when transitioning into the NFL. Cam Newton was an exception to that rule last year, but I don’t think Tannehill will have that same success. He needs to be developed and not forced into the line-up too early, and if he has half a year or one year to develop and get coached up I think he can and will be a quality starting quarterback for the Dolphins.
9^th- Carolina: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College:
-I thought Kuechly might end up in the top 10, but while I do like him a lot and think he will be a quality starting middle linebacker in the NFL for a very long time I don’t think he is necessarily an impact player like Patrick Willis was out of college. Kuechly is more Keith Brooking than Patrick Willis to me, but Brooking was a quality linebacker for the Falcons for a very long time. Kuechly has plenty of ability and should be a quality starter at MLB for the Panthers (who have had a lot of trouble with injuries at the linebacker position for the last 5 years or so) and I think those issues with injuries had something to do with this pick.
10^th- Buffalo: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina:
Analysis: This is the second pick I really did not like. I am not a Gilmore fan and I think his lack of ball skills and instincts has been overshadowed by his ideal size and speed combination for the cornerback position. I think he has a lot of upside, especially if he cleans up some of his technique and his back-pedal, but you can’t teach instincts and that concerns me.
11^th- Kansas City: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis:
Analysis: I originally gave Poe a 3rd round grade when I scouted him, and even though he had an impressive showing at the combine I still worry about picking him in the 1st round. He’s got terrific upside thanks to his combination of size and athleticism, but he didn’t dominate at Memphis and was washed out too much against double teams (and sometimes even 1 on 1 blocks) to get a 1st round grade from me. He’s got as much upside as any defensive tackle in this draft class, but he’s a high risk/high reward player that I don’t think is a very good fit for the 3-4 NT position in the NFL.
12^th- Philadelphia (F/ SEA): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State:
Analysis: Fletcher Cox is a player I really like and I had him as my #1 DT in this draft class. He slowly crept up draft boards but I was more impressed with his tape than I was of any other defensive tackle in this class. I really like his upside and I think he could really help upgrade their defensive front. Defensive tackle has been a position that the Eagles have struggled to fill with a quality player in recent years, and while Cox isn’t the flashiest, most athletically freakish player at his position I do think he is the best defensive tackle in this class. Great pick by the Eagles.
13^th- Arizona: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame:
Analysis: I thought the Cardinals might go in this direction and it definitely makes some sense. The Cardinals desperately needed a #2 receiver to take some pressure off of Larry Fitzgerald and now they have a big, physical player who can high point passes downfield in Floyd. He’s a quality prospect but I do worry about him having issues creating separation at the next level, but Fitzgerald should help him improve his route running.
14^th- St. Louis (F/ DAL): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU:
Analysis: The Rams very quietly a nice move down to #14 and continued to stock-pile picks. I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone mention that Les Snead, the Rams new GM that came from Thomas Dimitroff’s staff in Atlanta, has handled his first NFL Draft much more like the Patriots than Thomas Dimitroff has despite working for them during their original Super Bowl runs. He has stockpiled three second round picks all between #33 and #49 and will have ample opportunity to upgrade his roster soon. Brockers isn’t my favorite pick because I think he has a lot of developing to do if he is going to provide an impact as a pass rusher. He should help the Rams against the run, but he is a ways away from helping them as a pass rusher. I love Brockers’ upside, but I thought he should have come back to LSU for another year, but I do love how Snead has handled the draft thus far.
15^th- Seattle (F/ PHI): Bruce Irvin, DE/OLB, West Virginia:
Analysis: This was the most confusing pick of the draft for me, I absolutely didn’t see this coming. I thought that the talk of Irvin going in the 1st round was mostly smoke, but clearly I was wrong. Irvin has a lot of potential as a pass rusher and should offer some situational pass rushing early on in his career, but I don’t see an every down defensive end when I watch him. He’s got plenty of upside due to his great speed and burst, but this was a big roll of the dice this early in the draft.
16^th- New York Jets: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina:
Analysis: This was a bit of a surprising pick for me. Obviously Rex Ryan was incredibly impressed with him when they put him through defensive lineman drills and linebacker drills and I think that played into this pick, but I don’t think he is a good 3-4 defensive end because I don’t think occupying blockers to let other defenders make plays is what Coples is all about. I thought his ideal fit would have been a 4-3 LE that could rush the passer from that spot and then slide inside to defensive tackle on 3rd down situations if necessary, but the 3-4 defense doesn’t seem like a good fit for Coples at all to me.
17^th: Cincinnati: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama:
Analysis: Kirkpatrick has plenty of upside and the Bengals wanted/needed another cornerback. He’s not my favorite prospect, but he is a quality corner prospect and should help solidify their secondary. I’m not sure he’s going to be a great starter, but he should be a solid/pretty good starting corner.
18^th- San Diego: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina:
Analysis: This was a nice value pick for the Chargers and they really needed a pass rusher to help bolster their defense. They’ve been trying to replace Shawne Merriman for a long time and I think with Ingram they finally found the guy to do it. He’s extremely versatile and at the end of the day he is at his best on tape, not necessarily in drills or in shorts. That is what caused him to slide, his lack of flash, but that is why I love this pick: He’s a very good football player and that will shine through during his career as a Charger.
19^th- Chicago: Shea McClellin, DE/OLB, Boise State
Analysis: I’m a big Shea McClellin fan and it made me happy to see him go in the 1st round. He went earlier than I expected but I don’t think he will disappoint. He’s a very hard worker with a terrific motor and will at the very worst get effort sacks rushing the passer opposite Julius Peppers on the Bears defensive front.
20^th- Tennessee: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor:
Analysis: Kendall Wright really impressed me this year and made himself a lot of money over the course of the year as Robert Griffin III’s top target for the Baylor Bears. He didn’t wow many people in the offseason and unfortunately wasn’t at the Senior Bowl because of injury, but on film he is a 1st round caliber player without question. The Titans made a nice pick here to give Jake Locker (a mobile quarterback similar to RGIII) a player who is used to adjusting to a scrambling quarterback AND a player that can make guys miss and get plenty of yards after the catch. That is great news for Titans fans and Jake Locker.
21^st- New England (F/ CIN): Chandler Jones, DE/OLB, Syracuse:
Analysis: Chandler Jones was being hyped up a lot as the draft approached and was talked about as a possible top 10 pick, and Mike Mayock even stated that he thought Jones would be the top defensive player out of this draft in 3 years. I can’t say I agree with that, but the Patriots clearly liked him and made a move up to pick him. The jury is out on this one for now, but it’s hard to doubt the Patriots when it comes to the draft.
22^nd- Cleveland: Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State:
Analysis: This was another questionable pick. Everyone is rallying around it now, but it sounds like if Kendall Wright had made it to 22 he would have been the pick, and the Browns settled on Weeden after he went #20 to the Titans. That’s not what you want to hear about the scenario that led to you picking a quarterback in the first round, especially because Weeden already has enough question marks due to his age and the transition he will have to make from a pretty wide-open offense at Oklahoma State. He’s got a strong, accurate arm and he’s a smart guy, but if he doesn’t make an Andy Dalton-like impact as a rookie this pick will be criticized. I’m not sure he’s ready to start from Day One, and if he’s not then it limits the impact he will be able to make. At the end of the day he could have 6-8 more years to start as a quarterback even if he doesn’t start day one, but I would have picked him in round 2 if I wasn’t going to expect him to start Day One.
23^rd- Detroit: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa:
Analysis: I like Reiff more than most, but I think that this is a good pick for the Lions. They’ve needed a left tackle for a long time, and with Jeff Backus returning he won’t be pressured into the starting role prematurely. He’s got plenty of upside, but just needs to get stronger. Unlike some, I believe he has all the potential to be a quality starter at left tackle. He may not have ideal arm length, but he’s more than athletic enough and he should be ready to start after a year on the bench.
24^th- Pittsburgh: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford:
Analysis: This is the steal of the draft so far without a doubt in my opinion. DeCastro could have easily gone in the top 15 in my opinion, but he lasted past the Bengals (who I thought would pick him at 17 or 21 if he fell that far) and fell into the lap of the Steelers at 24 allowing them to fill a huge need and get fantastic value for the pick. DeCastro is the best offensive guard prospect I’ve ever scouted and this was a terrific pick.
25^th- New England (F/ DEN): Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama:
Analysis: The Patriots made another trade-up, which isn’t usually their mantra, to make sure they got Dont’a Hightower before the Packers or the Ravens had a chance to get him. Hightower is a quality player with versatility that the Patriots surely appreciate and he adds another fearsome hitter to their front 7.
26^th- Houston: Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois:
Analysis: This isn’t a bad pick, but I personally disagree with the strategy they took here. They let Mario Williams walk, even though he would have demanded a huge contract, and then replaced him with Whitney Mercilus. I don’t think that’s a great strategy because Williams is a bonafide stud of a pass rusher and if healthy he is one of the best in the entire NFL, and I don’t think Mercilus has that same upside nor do I think he is going to be a 10+ sack guy that causes consistent pressure like he did at Illinois last year. He’s got a lot of upside but he could also have been a one year wonder and that presents a lot of risk. It would have cost a lot of money, but the Texans should have brought Super Mario back and addressed a different need with this pick in my opinion.
27^th- Cincinnati (F/ NE): Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin:
Analysis: Great pick by the Bengals. They needed a quality offensive guard and Zeitler has been my #2 offensive guard behind only DeCastro for months. Plenty of people expected Cordy Glenn to go #2 but I expected Zeitler to go ahead of him as evidenced in my mock draft. Cincinnati gets an offensive guard with pro-bowl potential that is ready to step into the starting line-up right away with this pick.
28^th- Green Bay: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, Southern Cal:
Analysis: Personally, I am not a huge fan of this pick. I am not the biggest Nick Perry fan, but he has undeniable upside. Something about his lack of bend and hip flexibility worries me though. He looks a little stiff coming off the edge and even though he has impressive speed, burst and strength I just don’t know if he will be able to overcome that lack of bend to become an impact pass rusher. However, he will be playing opposite Clay Matthews and he should be able to teach him a thing or two about creating pressure.
29^th- Minnesota (F/ BAL): Harrison Smith, SS, Notre Dame
Analysis: The Vikings made a savvy trade to start the draft but I don’t think this was a smart move. They didn’t give up very much, but I don’t think Harrison Smith warrants a first round pick. He was more of a 2nd-3rd round player to me, and I never really understood how he became a potential 1st round pick as the draft approached. I don’t think it had anything to do with his film, but it likely had something to do with this weak safety class and the Vikings huge need at safety. Trading up to reach for a player at a huge need position doesn’t often work well (See the Falcons trading up into round 1 to select Sam Baker) and I don’t envision this going very well either.
30^th- San Francisco: AJ Jenkins, WR, Illinois:
Analysis: I thought I liked AJ Jenkins more than most (I had him in my potential list of breakout players at the beginning of the year, I really liked what I saw from him as a junior) but clearly there were teams that were higher on him than I was, the 49ers being one of them. I don’t think he was worth a 1st round pick, but I had a 3rd round grade on him and thought he could be a productive NFL receiver. I’m not a huge fan of the pick, though I do like the player. Just seemed too early to me.
31^st- Tampa Bay (F/ DEN, F/ NE): Doug Martin, RB, Boise State
Analysis: The Bucs traded up a few slots to make sure they got their guy Doug Martin. Plenty of people thought the Bucs should have gotten David Wilson or Lamar Miller, but I prefer Doug Martin to both of them. Unlike Wilson or Miller, Martin can be an every down back in the NFL. He can be your feature back, but he is also a great pass blocker and a very reliable receiver out of the backfield. He’s a rare back in the NFL that can do everything you could ask for from a running back, so I love this pick.
32^nd- New York Giants: David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech:
Analysis: This pick surprised me a bit at first but it makes a lot of sense. David Wilson is a burner that will present the Giants with a lot of options as far as how to use him. He can spell Ahmad Bradshaw, he can catch passes out of the backfield and he can return kicks. That versatility as well as his game-breaking speed made him worthy of this pick.

Here are the top 10 players available at the start of the second round:
1- Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
2- Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
3- Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska
4- Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
5- Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
6- Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
7- Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
8- Devon Still, DT, Penn State
9- Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
10- Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State

Thanks for reading guys! Enjoy the draft!

–Tom

Redskins Alter the Draft Landscape, Make Trade With Rams

For weeks or months, the NFL Draft community has been speculating about what the St. Louis Rams will do with the #2 overall selection in the NFL Draft. Will they keep it and select Matt Kalil or Justin Blackmon? Will they trade down with the Browns? Will they trade down with the Redskins or the Dolphins? I’ll be honest and say that I expected the Browns to get Robert Griffin III when all was said and done, but that does not appear to be likely anymore.

Jay Glazer is reporting that the St. Louis Rams have agreed to swap 2012 1st round selections (Rams own #2 overall, the Redskins own #6 overall) and the Rams will receiver two future 1st round selections as well as “additional” picks. I will update this with details later once they are finalized and confirmed. **UPDATE The additional pick is a 2012 2nd round pick from Washington** What we do know, at least for now, is that the Redskins have mortgaged a significant part of their future draft picks to move up to #2 overall. In all likelihood, they will be selecting Robert Griffin III with that selection, and they will have their quarterback of the future.

I’m not often in favor of these blockbuster trades, and I worried that the trade for Julio Jones may have been too much for one player and that it might have put too much pressure on Jones to perform well as a rookie. That was a trade for two 1st round selections as well as other valuable picks. This trade is for three 1st round selections and other picks, and because Griffin plays quarterback the pressure will be even more intense than it was for Jones. I personally don’t believe Griffin should play Day One, but I tend to be conservative with quarterback development (as I believe more NFL teams should be). Regardless, the Redskins made a very bold move to move up to #2 overall and will likely come away with their quarterback of the future with that selection.

I know I’ve been absent for a while, but I’m officially back in the saddle. Keep checking in for more NFL Draft news as the draft draws near!

Thanks for reading,

–Tom

Falcons Preseason Post- Game 1 Defensive Notes

Defensive Notes:

Series 1:
-Good run D, Babs beat a one on one block.
-Good heads-up play by Abe to get an INT on a tipped pass.

Series 2:
-Empty backfield, zone coverage. This is why we had to go get Ray Edwards. No pass rush with the front 4 and Henne completes it to Bess underneath in Lofton’s zone.
-Great play by Biermann vs the run, knifed inside and tackled the back for a short gain.
-Got a little heat on Henne, but not much. On the opposite side the WR turned Dunta around and had a step on him. Could have given up a big play if Henne had thrown that way.

Series 3:
-Easy INT by Grimes. He bit on the play action but quickly recovered and made a nice play on the ball, easy INT. Great recovery by Grimes. Henne thought he had a free completion, nice play by Grimes.

Series 4:
-Franks flew off the corner to pressure Henne, could have had a sack but didn’t back down. Henne got hit and the ball was dropped.
-Sidbury showed some speed, forced Henne to step up but he had room to run and got the 1^st down on 3^rd and 8.
-Jerry stayed blocked way too long. Needs to something happen vs a 1 on 1 block or he needs to be replaced/upgraded.
-Sidbury showed more speed off the edge, but he can’t get around the OT on the outside. If he doesn’t step up this year then RE is a huge need for us.
-Chris Owens got absolutely burned. Dime back at most.

Series 5:
-Matt Moore wisely didn’t force the ball downfield.
-Peters working well vs 1 on 1 blocks, Sidbury showed a good motor. On the surface his good motor and edge speed make him intriguing, but he just can’t manage to get the edge or get off blocks. Moore threw a wobbly ball on the run.

Series 6:
-#36 looked BAAD in coverage. #39 misplayed the ball as well. Cliff Matthews got upfield and applied some pressure though. Good to see.
-Moore threw a good ball in the face of pressure here.
-#39 has whiffed on two hits in a row.
-Matthews with a good burst, impressive swim move. He might make the team if he keeps showing ability. Peters showed a good motor to chase down and tackle the RB in the flat.

Series 7:
-Owens showed some ability as a blitzer coming off the edge here.
-Chris Matthews has flashed some speed off the edge.
-Good tackle in flat by Franks. Seems to be a good tackler and blitzer which I like.
-Sidbury and Matthews are flying off the edge but keep getting knocked down as they try to get the corner. Sidbury needs to get stronger. Jerry and Sidbury both had a slot to drag down Moore but he got away.

Series 8:
-Matt Moore got leveled and threw a ball up, but Dent LEVELED Moore.

Series 9:
-Matthews has shown some speed and shoulder dip, just gets knocked down too much.

Series 10:
-Owens is a good tackling corner.
-Matt Moore looks ok. Solid arm strength and accuracy, some toughness. Good patience in pocket, good feel to step up. Deals with pressure well. Good anticipation.
-Edmond Gates has looked good. Great speed, good hands as well.
-Jerry just doesn’t shed blocks well. Doesn’t look disruptive.
-Robert James has looked good. I think he’ll make the 53 man roster.
-TD Edmond Gates. Nice catch, nice throw by Moore too.
-I like Darrin Walls, I think he’ll be the 5^th CB. I’d keep him over Owens at this point.

Series 11:
-Jerry seemed to flash a nice move inside as he got a nice hit on Devlin.
-Matthews with a nice get off, good bull rush and shed, plus a good motor to sack Devlin. Nice play, I hope he finds  away to make the 53 man.

Series 12:
-Jerry beat his man and would have had a sack if he hadn’t drawn a BAD holding call. The OL had his arm around Jerry’s neck.
-Matthews has a good motor. Would have loved to see him at the East-West Shrine Game.

Thanks for reading! I’m going to preview some college games that everyone should watch, and I’ll be watching the Wisconsin-UNLV game and posting a write-up once it’s over and I have time to type everything up.

–Tom

Flurry of Trade Moves, Signings and Cuts

Albert Haynesworth to the Patriots for a 5th rounder- Clearly the Redskins are cutting their dead weight, and Haynesworth was just an overpaid problem for the Redskins at this point. This is such a typical Patriots move, and it’s just amazing the saavy that they have as an organization. As a fan of the NFL Draft and as someone who is very critical of free agency moves and trades, it’s rare that I ever disagree completely with something the Patriots do (I did not like the Nate Solder pick in round 1 however, but those instances are few and far between). This is just another case of me considering them to be brilliant. They got him for a 2013 5th, virtually nothing, and none of his salary for the next two years is guaranteed because the Redskins had to take the cap hit for him. The Pats can restructure his deal to give him some guaranteed money if they want, but they definitely don’t have to. Plus, the Pats have the clubhouse leadership and stable locker room to absorb someone like Haynesworth and keep him in line, which a lot of teams don’t have. The Patriots know how it’s done, and they continue to impress me as an organization. It doesn’t get any better than that Pats and the Packers when it comes to the draft and offseason manueverings.

Reggie Bush to Miami, agrees to a 2 year contract with the team after trade- Not sure what the trade is for, but I heard it might be a 6th rounder… Can’t confirm any of that though. It will be interesting to see what the ultimate compensation is for him. Either way, Miami gets him on the cheap and they get a very explosive back who should complement Daniel Thomas well, even though I still maintain that he is more of a finesse back in a power-back’s body. Regardless, still a pretty low risk/high reward pick-up.

James Jones still available, Minnesota in pursuit- This would not surprise me in the least, this is a typical Vikings move. Picking up McNabb for a 6th in 2012 and a 6th in 2013 was a Patriots-esque move, but now they are back to the Vikings moves of old by panicking after losing Sidney Rice and pursuing a WR who is overrated because of his performance on a very good team. They’ll sign him for a lot of money, more than he’s worth, and act like he is ready to be a #1 (similar to what they did with Berrian…) and he won’t end up working. The Vikings are still the Vikings I guess. No way does this end well for them. Let me know when I can take over the Vikings and start fixing this team.

Jason Babin signs a 5 year, $28 million contract with Philadelphia- This is a great get for Philly and if you read my article on Babin you might understand the potential upside of this move. I was right in that he didn’t ask for ridiculous money, he took a reasonable deal of just under $6 million which is a steal for a DE coming off a career year with over 10 sacks, and he is reunited with his former DL coach who helped him blow up last year, and now that same coach is working with a lot of DL talent on the Eagles. On paper at least, they should have a very scary pass rush, and Washburn should help make sure that talent on paper translates to the field. Great pick-up by the Eagles, another well-run team.

Sidney Rice signs a 5 year, $41 million contract with $18.5 million guaranteed- Rice is following T-Jack to Seattle, which makes little sense to me, though Seattle has had an underrated offseason. He doesn’t have a QB to throw him the ball yet, though in future seasons they could have a quality player. But this year, his value is not very high in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how this pans out, but if I was Sidney I would much rather have stayed in Minnesota with McNabb on the way, Ponder in the wings and AP on that same side of the ball. That’s just me though.

Kevin Kolb still rumored to be going to AZ- Will update this when the deal goes through, I would be surprised if this didn’t happen today or tomorrow. Hearing they might get DRC and a 2nd or something similar for him. Would be a fantastic deal.

Will keep updating this as more stuff happens. There was a flurry of activity that I had to update you guys on, I’ll try to keep up today.

–Tom

Free Agency Moves Tracker:

I’ll do my best to keep up with all the free agency moves. Here is what I’ve heard so far:

Tarvaris Jackson to Seattle- Not loving this move, because with Jackson and Whitehurst the Seahawks don’t have much at QB, especially since they are now letting Hasselbeck walk. Hasselbeck may have had some problems with injuries recently, but Tarvaris has had injury issues at times as well. Exchanging Hasselbeck for Tarvaris is a definite downgrade in my opinion, not a good move for Seattle in my opinion.

Charles Johnson re-signs with Carolina: Carolina gave Charles Johnson a big contract: 6 years, $72 million with $32 million guaranteed. Interesting that they felt they needed to lock Johnson up, but let Peppers walk. Peppers is obviously older and got more money, but the way he played for Chicago this year you have to wonder if the Panthers made a mistake letting him go (though Peppers may have decided to leave even if Carolina offered him that much money) and if giving Johnson a “perennial pro-bowl level deal” when he has had one year of impressive production as a starter. He looked good in a rotational role before that as well, but that’s a lot of money to give a guy who had his best season by far in a contract year. But they probably couldn’t afford to let him walk right after they lost Peppers the year before.

St. Louis Rams agree to 4 year deal with former Eagles Safety Quentin Mikell: Clearly the Eagles are comfortable letting Kurt Coleman step up into a consistent starting role if they let Mikell go so easily, but Mikell was one of the best safeties in the NFL last year, and he is a great pick-up for the Rams on paper. Mikell will be playing on a defense with significantly less talent, which is something you have to consider when predicting whether or not this is a great signing. It’s a definite upgrade for the Rams at that position, but it will be interesting to see how much money he got.

Santana Moss re-signs with Redskins- Not a game-changer by any means, but clearly the Redskins wanted him back and he wanted to be back, hopefully the quarterback throwing him the ball doesn’t change as frequently as it did last year. Sounds like it is a 3 year deal, $15 million with a $5 million signing bonus, $6 million guaranteed.

Seahawks may sign Leinart- Leinart could be reunited with Pete Carroll in Seattle. Will be interesting to see if he rounds out the depth chart. **Update** It sounds like Leinart has agreed to a deal with Seattle. This will easily be the most interesting/ridiculous quarterback competition of any of the 32 training camps…

Baltimore locks up Marshal Yanda- Yanda is a quality guard, haven’t heard the terms yet. Will update when I hear what the contract is worth. **Update** The deal is believed to be worth something in the 5 year to $32 million range.

Thanks for reading!

–Tom

2011 NFL Draft Grades: Part 3

Kansas City:
1 – Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh 7.5
2 – Rodney Hudson, OG, Florida State 8.0
3 – Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia 7.0
3 – Allen Bailey, DE, Miami 7.0
4 – Jalil Brown, CB, Colorado 7.5
5 – Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa 8.5
5 – Gabe Miller, OLB, Oregon 7.0
6 – Jerrell Powe, NT, Ole Miss 8.0
7 – Shane Bannon, FB, Yale 7.0

Overall Grade: C+

Analysis: I am not a big Baldwin supporter and I was a little surprised to see him go in the first round, even if it was late in the round. He has as much potential as any receiver in this class due to his rare combination of size, athletic ability and hands but I have questions about his attitude and effort level and I think he coasted a lot on his athletic ability and natural talent at Pittsburgh. He has a lot of upside and if he gets coached up and improves his route running he could be extremely dangerous and emerge as a beast opposite Dwayne Bowe in a couple of years, but that’s a risky proposition in my opinion. I like Rodney Hudson and he’s a solid guard, but probably not a great fit in a man scheme. He might need to move inside to center for KC. Justin Houston has a lot of pass rushing potential but he is much better with his hand on the ground as a DE than he is standing up and rushing the passer, and he struggles mightily in pass coverage so that hurts him in this scheme. I am not an Allen Bailey fan at all and he is one or two years away from being able to start because of his terrible hand usage. Brown is a solid pick but he is only good in man coverage and even then his upside is limited. Stanzi was a great pick this late as I thought he had the ability to get picked as high as the 3^rd round. Powe was a nice pick-up in the 6^th because while he is a boom/bust pick the Chiefs have little invested in him with such a late pick and he has definite upside.

Indianapolis:
1 – Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College 9.0
2 – Ben Ijalana, OT, Villanova 8.5
3 – Drake Nevis, DT, LSU 8.5
4 – Delone Carter, RB, Syracuse 8.5
6 – Chris Rucker, CB, Michigan State 7.0

Overall Grade: A-

Analysis: The Colts had only a few picks but they made the most of them. Castonzo is my #1 ranked OT in this class and I do not understand why some are saying he will have to start at RT in the NFL. He is ready to play LT right now, and I expect him to as a rookie before the year is up. Ijalana is a nice pick-up and will either be a RT or an OG on the Colts OL. With their first two picks they immediately upgraded their offensive line to protect Peyton immediately. Then they fill their need for a DT with a very disruptive DT in Drake Nevis to improve their defensive line. And finally Delone Carter is a nice value in round 4 and should have an immediate impact on their RB rotation. Great draft.

Philadelphia:
1 – Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor 8.5
2 – Jaiquawn Jarrett, S, Temple 8.5
3 – Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah 7.5
4 – Casey Matthews, LB, Oregon 7.5
4 – Alex Henery, K, Nebraska 7.5
5 – Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh 7.5
5 – Julian Vandervelde, OG, Iowa 7.5
6 – Jason Kelce, C, Cincinnati 7.0
6 – Brian Rolle, OLB, Ohio State 7.5
7 – Greg Lloyd, ILB, Connecticut 7.5
7 – Stanley Havili, FB, Hawaii 7.5

Overall Grade: C+
Analysis: The Eagles had a lot of draft picks but I didn’t think they made the most of them. Watkins was a good pick in round one to upgrade their OL, and I like Jarrett a lot in round two also. However, the rest of their picks seemed like depth guys that don’t have a ton of upside as starters, and picking a kicker in round four is tough to get behind even if Henery is a great kicking prospect.

New Orleans:
1 – Cameron Jordan, DE, California 8.5
1 – Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama 9.5
3 – Martez Wilson, ILB, Illinois 7.5
3 – Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville 8.5
7 – Greg Romeus, DE, Pittsburgh 8.5
7 – Nate Bussey, LB, Illinois 7.0

Overall Grade: A
Analysis: The Saints made the most of their limited selections as well. Cameron Jordan is a nice pick-up at #24 and should immediately improve their defensive line, and Mark Ingram at #28 is one of the best values in the entire draft. If he stays healthy he is going to be one of the best backs in the league starting this year. Martez Wilson is a freak athlete but his instincts are poor, so while he has upside I wonder how much of that upside the Saints will actually see. Patrick gives the Saints more depth at corner and I really like him, and I like the Romeus pick in round 7. I thought he might go as high as round four or five despite his injury. He has top 50 pick potential when he is healthy, and if he can get healthy and come back slow without being forced in early I think he could be one of the steals of this draft. All reward and no risk, very good pick.

Seattle:
1 – James Carpenter, OT, Alabama 8.0
3 – John Moffitt, OG, Wisconsin 8.0
4 – K.J. Wright, ILB, Mississippi State 8.0
4 – Kris Durham, WR, Georgia 7.5
5 – Richard Sherman, CB, Stanford 7.5
5 – Mark LeGree, S, Appalachian State 7.0
6 – Byron Maxwell, CB, Clemson 7.0
7 – Lazarius Levingston, DT, LSU 7.0
7 – Malcolm Smith, LB, USC 7.0

Overall Grade: B-
Analysis: The Seahawks got pretty good players with their first five picks, I like them all, but they didn’t great value with any of them. Carpenter will be a very nice RT for them starting from day one and I envision him having a long NFL career. Moffitt is actually a solid value in round three and I like that the Seahawks paid attention to the OL early. With Okung, Carpenter and Moffitt they have a really nice, young core of offensive linemen to work with. K.J. Wright is a linebacker that I like a lot and Durham was a guy that I was high on as a late round pick but I was pretty surprised he went as high as he did. Sherman is solid CB or Safety depth, and the rest of the guys strike me as depth and special teams contributors. So they did an alright job, but they could have done better I think.

Baltimore:
1 – Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado 8.5
2 – Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland 8.0
3 – Jah Reid, OT, Central Florida 6.5
4 – Tandon Doss, WR, Indiana 7.5
5 – Chykie Brown, CB, Texas 7.5
5 – Pernell McPhee, DE, Mississippi State 8.0
6 – Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech 7.5
7 – Anthony Allen, RB, Georgia Tech 6.0

Overall Grade: B-
Analysis: The Ravens are typically a very good drafting team but I was not very taken with their draft. I like Jimmy Smith for them at #26, and Torrey Smith provides them with a lot of speed and playmaking ability that they have been sorely lacking recently. I wonder about his body catching though so I wonder how good he is going to be, and I don’t think he will contribute much early on as a rookie. I am not a Jah Reid fan and I haven’t been since the East-West Shrine Game. He looked like a waist bender to me and he is a RT at best, so while he is big I am not a fan of that pick. Doss and Brown are solid pick-ups in rounds four and five, but I like McPhee a lot in a 3-4. I think that is his best scheme, so he will have to bulk up and get stronger to fit in their scheme. I like the Tyrod pick too, he will be a developmental guy behind Flacco like Troy Smith was back in the day.

Atlanta:
1 – Julio Jones , WR, Alabama 8.5
3 – Akeem Dent, LB, Georgia 8.0
5 – Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State 9.5
6 – Matt Bosher, K/P, Miami 7.0
7 – Andrew Jackson, OG, Fresno State 7.5
7  - Cliff Matthews, DE, South Carolina 7.5

Overall Grade: B+
Analysis: This was a tough one for me to grade because I’m a Falcons fan, but overall I liked our draft. It was definitely not what I was expecting so it took some time for me to think it over and decide what I thought of it but overall I like it. Julio was a very nice pick-up for us and with his ceiling and Roddy mentoring him hopefully he will live up to his massive potential, plus he should take a lot of pressure off of Roddy once he gets on the field. Plus, once Roddy starts to decline Julio will be ready to step up as the #1 guy, which is another reason I love this move. Akeem Dent was a pick I was skeptical of early, and it seemed high for him, but he should be a reliable run stopper for us even if he doesn’t have a lot of ability in coverage. Jacquizz Rodgers in round 5 was definitely my favorite pick in the draft for us, and maybe in the entire NFL draft. He is so underrated because of his size that he fell much farther than he should have and I can’t wait to see him in a Falcons uniform. He is EXACTLY what we needed behind Turner at RB. Bosher is a pick I was not a big fan of because I didn’t think he was anything incredibly special as a kicker or as a punter, but I liked the depth additions of Jackson and Matthews because while they won’t contribute immediately they have upside. We gave up far too much for Julio to get an A, but a B+ definitely fits I think.

Chicago:
1 – Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin 9.0
2 – Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State 8.5
3 – Chris Conte, S, California 7.5
5 – Nathan Enderle, QB, Idaho 8.0
6  - J.T. Thomas, LB, West Virginia 7.0

Overall Grade: B+
Analysis: I really liked a few of the Bears picks. I’m a big Carimi fan and I think he is going to be a great addition to their offensive line. Hell, he may be their best offensive lineman the second he walks into their training camp facility, that’s how bad their offensive line is. Paea is a nice pick-up in round two also because DT is a serious need for the Bears too, so they got two players who can upgrade two of their serious needs in their first two picks. That’s a good start. Conte is solid safety depth with some upside, and I am a big Enderle fan so I was happy to see him get picked in round 5.

New York Jets:
1 – Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple 8.5
3 – Kenrick Ellis, NT, Hampton 8.5
4 – Bilal Powell, RB, Louisville 9.0
5 – Jeremy Kerley, WR, TCU 8.0
7 – Greg McElroy, QB, Alabama 8.0
7 – Scotty McKnight, WR, Colorado 7.5

Overall Grade: A-
Analysis: I like Wilkerson a lot and grabbing him at 30 is a pretty nice value. Ellis has definite upside as a NT so I like that pick and value in round three, and Bilal Powell is a nice power back that should fit their scheme perfectly. Kerley is a very versatile pick-up in round 5, and I really liked their late round picks with McElroy and McKnight. They are both underrated and I was surprised they were both there, but I like both pick-ups for the Jets and I think they will be nice depth for them.

Pittsburgh:
1 – Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State 9.5
2 – Marcus Gilbert, OT, Florida 8.0
3 – Curtis Brown, CB, Texas 8.0
4 – Cortez Allen, CB, The Citadel 8.0
5 – Chris Carter, OLB, Fresno State 8.0
6 – Keith Williams, OG, Nebraska 7.5
7 – Baron Batch, RB, Texas Tech 7.5

Overall Grade: A
Analysis: The Steelers had a very nice draft. Heyward was one of the best values in the draft at #31 overall and I think he will be viewed as one of the steals of the draft in a few years once he is anchoring the Steelers 3-4 defense at DE. Gilbert is a big, powerful RT prospect that will fit their scheme well, and Curtis Brown and Cortez Allen add much needed depth at cornerback and they have definite upside. I don’t think Chris Carter is a perfect fit as a 3-4 OLB but as a situational pass rusher and I think he will be valuable in nickel packages when he can rush with his hand down, which is when I think he is at his best. Baron Batch is a nice pick-up also who has the potential to be a 3^rd down back in the NFL.

Green Bay:
1 – Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State 9.0
2 – Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky 10.0
3 – Alex Green, RB, Hawaii 8.5
4 – Davon House, CB, New Mexico State 9.0
5 – D.J. Williams, TE, Arkansas 8.0
6 – Caleb Schlauderaff, OG, Utah 7.0
6 – D.J. Smith, OLB, Appalachian State 7.0
6 – Ricky Elmore, OLB, Arizona 7.5
7 – Ryan Taylor, TE, North Carolina 7.0
7 – Lawrence Guy, DE, Arizona State 8.0

Overall Grade: A+
Analysis: The Packers are one of the best teams in the league at drafting and this year was no exception. Getting Sherrod to play LT in their zone blocking scheme was a great pick-up and a good value, and getting Cobb, a guy I graded as a 1^st rounder, at #64 overall was a fantastic pick-up and value. Alex Green adds much needed talent to the RB position, and Davon House was a great value at the end of the fourth round when I thought he could have been a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick. DJ Williams is a pretty good value in round 5 as well and should be a solid #2 TE for them, and the rest of the guys provide nice depth. Lawrence Guy has a lot of upside too so he might end up being a pretty nice pick in the 7^th round depending on how he develops. Overall, the Packers had the best draft of anyone in my opinion.

That concludes my NFL Draft grades! Look out for my upcoming previews in the coming days! Thanks for reading!

–Tom

2011 NFL Draft Grades: Part 2

Houston:
1^st- J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin 9.0
2^nd- Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona 8.5
2^nd- Brandon Harris, CB, Miami 9.0
4^th- Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech 8.5
5^th- Shiloh Keo, SS, Idaho 7.0
5^th- T.J. Yates, QB, North Carolina 7.0
7^th- Derek Newton, OT, Arkansas State 7.0
7^th- Cheta Ozougwu, OLB, Rice 7.5

Overall Grade: A

Analysis: I thought Houston had a great draft. I am a big fan of J.J. Watt and honestly I am high on the first four selections they bagged in this draft. I think J.J. Watt is a perfect fit for a 3-4 scheme as a DE and the Houston really needed a 3-4 DE, so getting a great player that fills a huge need is about as good as it gets. Brooks Reed gives them a pass rusher off the edge and he is a very good fit for the 3-4 scheme as an OLB. I thought Brandon Harris was a top 25 lock but getting him and then Carmichael in the 4^th improves their entire defense. They got better on the defensive line, at the linebacker level and they drastically improved their group of cornerbacks. Between Kareem Jackson, Brandon Harris and Rashad Carmichael they have a lot of young talent at that position now. Keo is more of a back-up/special teams type, and Yates is a career back-up in my opinion, but I think Ozougwu has the potential to be a solid back-up in a 3-4 scheme.

Minnesota:
1^st- Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State 8.0
2^nd- Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame 8.0
4^th- Christian Ballard, DT, Iowa 8.0
5^th- Brandon Burton, CB, Utah 7.5
6^th- DeMarcus Love, OT, Arkansas 7.5
6^th- Mistral Raymond, S, South Florida 7.0
6^th- Brandon Fusco, C, Slippery Rock 7.0
6^th- Ross Homan, OLB, Ohio State 7.0
7^th- D’Aundre Reed, DE, Arizona 8.0
7^th- Stephen Burton, WR, West Texas A&M 7.0

Overall Grade: C+

Analysis: Ponder was a significant reach at #12 but if he is their quarterback and he pans out as a solid starter then it might be worth the pick, though it may never end up being a good value pick. Ponder has potential and I liked him as a late 1^st round pick, but I was surprised by this selection. Rudolph was largely considered the #1 TE in the class but he had first round potential before his injury. It may not have been a huge need but it was still a good value pick. I personally would have picked Rahim Moore here considering their huge need for a safety, but that’s just me. Ballard is a pretty good value in round four. I’m not a big fan of Brandon Burton or DeMarcus Love, but in the 5^th and 6^th rounds they are merely depth additions with some upside. I like D’Aundre Reed though and he has upside, so grabbing him in the 7^th round has the potential to be a steal.

Detroit:
1^st- Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn 9.0
2^nd- Titus Young, WR, Boise State 8.0
2^nd- Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois 8.0
5th- Doug Hogue,LB, Syracuse 7.0
7th- Johnny Culbreath, OT, South Carolina State 7.0

Overall Grade: B+

Analysis: Detroit may not have had a lot of picks, but they made the most of them. Fairley was a terrific value at #13 overall and should help team with Ndamukong Suh to create a dynamic duo at defensive tackle for the Lions. Titus Young has a lot of speed to threaten down the seam for the Lions and might help draw some attention away from Calvin Johnson eventually. Mikel LeShoure has ability and in the late 2^nd round area he was a solid value and should help provide more consistent production than Jahvid Best, allowing him to be a complementary 3^rd down back.

St. Louis:
1 – Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina 8.5
2 – Lance Kendricks, TE, Wisconsin 8.5
3 – Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State 6.0
4 – Greg Salas, WR, Hawaii 7.5
5 – Jermale Hines, S, Ohio State 7.5
7 – Mikail Baker, CB, Baylor 7.0
7 – Jabara Williams, LB, Stephen F. Austin 7.0
7 – Jonathon Nelson, S, Oklahoma 7.0

Overall Grade: B

Analysis: Quinn has a lot of potential as a RE, and Kendricks was my favorite TE in the draft. He was a great pick in the 2^nd round, and should help give Bradford another reliable target to throw to. I don’t think Pettis has much upside at all but that’s just me. He also will struggle to separate in the NFL, so I question that pick. Salas strikes me as a reliable slot receiver, and the rest of their picks should be solid depth and special teamers at worst.

Miami:
1 – Mike Pouncey, OG,  Florida 6.5
2 – Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State 6.5
4 – Edmond Gates, WR, Abilene-Christian 7.5
6 – Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa 7.5
7 – Frank Kearse, NT, Alabama A&M 7.5
7 – Jimmy Wilson, CB, Montana 7.0

Overall Grade: C

Analysis: I thought the Dolphins had a pretty bad draft. Selecting Mike Pouncey #15 overall, even higher than Maurkice was selected last year (#17 overall) is absolutely ridiculous in my opinion, especially considering the fact that he is a poor drive blocker and his intangibles aren’t as impressive as Maurkice’s. I also don’t like Thomas much, he runs upright and is not nearly as physical as you might think considering his size. He is a finesse runner in a power back’s body. Gates has a lot of explosiveness because of his elite speed and might be able to provide them with some of what they were looking for from Ted Ginn years ago. Clay should be a pretty good FB for them, and Kearse is a big body that might pan out as a 3-4 NT.

Jacksonville:

1 – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri 8.5
3 – Will Rackley, OG, Lehigh 8.5
4 – Cecil Shorts III, WR, Mount Union 8.0
4 – Chris Prosinski, S, Wyoming 7.0
5 – Rod Issac, S, Middle Tennessee State 7.0

Overall Grade: B

Analysis: Gabbert has a lot of upside and he landed in a very good situation in Jacksonville. With David Garrard still entrenched at quarterback he has time to get comfortable in the NFL, and he will need a year or two before he is ready to start. So landing on a team with a quarterback ready to start for another year or two is an ideal situation for him. I am very high on Will Rackley as well, and I think he will be a good addition to their offensive line. Cecil Shorts III has some potential as a slot receiver also.

Oakland:
2 – Stefen Wisniewski, C, Penn State 8.0
3 – DeMarcus Van Dyke, CB, Miami 5.0
3 – Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU 7.0
4 – Chimdi Chekwa, CB, Ohio State 7.5
4 – Taiwan Jones, RB, Eastern Washington 7.0
5 – Denarius Moore, WR, Tennessee 7.5
6 – Richard Godron, TE, Miami 7.0
7 – David Ausberry, RB, USC 7.0

Overall Grade: C+

Analysis: Oakland again had a sub-par draft in my opinion. Wisniewski has good potential as a C, but Van Dyke was severely overdrafted just because of his speed. I could not believe he went in the 3^rd round. I would have had a hard time justifying selecting him in the 7^th. Barksdale is a solid OT but he will have to play RT. Chekwa is another speed demon, same with Taiwan Jones and Denarius Moore, but I wonder how significant their impact will be.

New England:
1 – Nate Solder, OT, Colorado 7.0
2 – Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia 8.0
2 – Shane Vereen, RB, California 8.5
3 – Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU 8.5
3 – Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas 8.0
5 – Marcus Cannon, OG, TCU 8.5
5 – Lee Smith, TE, Marshall 7.5
6 – Markell Carter, OLB, Central Arkansas 7.0
7 – Malcolm Williams, S, TCU 7.0

Overall Grade: B+

Analysis: I thought Solder was overdrafted at #17 overall so it will be interesting to see if that pick pans out for the Patriots. I thought Dowling at #33 might be a bit high, but I really like Vereen and Ridley and they are bringing a lot of talent to the Patriots backfield. Mallett in round 3 was a very interesting pick in round 3 but he obviously has a ton of upside with limited risk. Cannon in round 5 is a great pick-up despite some of his health concerns as well.

San Diego:
1 – Corey Liuget, DE, Illinois 8.
2 – Marcus Gilchrist, CB, Clemson 7.5
2 – Jonas Mouton, LB, Michigan 8.0
3 – Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego State 8.5
3 – Shareece Wright, CB, USC 7.5
6 – Jordan Todman, RB, Connecticut 7.5
6 – Steve Schilling, OG, Michigan 7.5
7 – Andrew Gachkar, OLB, Missouri 7.0

Overall Grade: B

Analysis: Liuget should be a good pick at 3-4 DE and he definitely has upside. I’m not a big Gilchrist fan but he definitely has a nice combination of size and speed. Vincent Brown is one of my favorite picks in the 3^rd round and I think he will have a more significant impact than people expect. He’s a very good route runner with great hands, so I really liked that pick. I was surprised Todman fell to the 6^th, but with his speed and potential that could be a nice upside pick in the future.

New York Giants:
1 – Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska 8.5
2 – Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina 8.0
3 – Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy 8.5
4 – James Brewer, OT, Indiana 8.0
6 – Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State 8.0
6 – Tyler Sash, S, Iowa 7.5
6 – Jacquian Williams, LB, South Florida 7.0
7 – Da’Rel Scott, RB, Maryland 7.0

Overall Grade: B+

Analysis: The Giants stayed patient and ended up with a significant upgrade to the cornerback position with Amukamara, and they got a very talented defensive tackle in Marvin Austin in round two. He has a ton of potential but I am not sure he will ever reach it because of his attitude and work ethic. Jernigan is going to be a very dynamic slot receiver for the Giants in my opinion. Brewer has potential as a RT, Jones was a great value in round six. The rest are solid depth, though Sash has some upside.

Tampa Bay:
1 – Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa 8.0
2 – Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson 8.0
3 – Mason Foster, LB, Washington 8.5
4 – Luke Stocker, TE, Tennessee 8.5
5 – Ahmad Black, S, Florida 8.5
6 – Allen Bradford, RB, USC 7.5
7 – Anthony Gaitor, CB, Florida International 7.0
7 – Daniel Hardy, TE, Idaho 7.0

Overall Grade: B

Analysis: Clayborn and Bowers were two interesting additions to a defensive line with a couple of very talented defensive tackles. Foster has a lot of potential as well and getting him in round three was a great value in my opinion. Stocker has good potential too and he is a well-rounded TE. Black has great intangibles and while he doesn’t have elite size and athleticism he could very well plug the hole the Bucs have had at safety.

Thanks for reading! One more round of draft grades will be up in the next day or two and then I’ll have some names to look out for next year in two posts!

–Tom

NFL Draft Team Grades: Part 1

Overall Team Grades:

Carolina:

1^st- Cam Newton, QB, Auburn: 7.0

3^rd- Terrell McClain, DT, South Florida 7.0

3^rd- Sione Fua, DT, Stanford 7.5

4^th- Brandon Hogan, CB, West Virginia 7.0

5^th- Kealoha Pilares, WR, Hawaii 7.0

6^th- Lawrence Wilson, OLB, Connecticut 8.0

6^th- Zachary Williams, C, Washington State 7.0

7^th- Lee Ziemba, OT, Panthers 7.5

Overall Grade: C

Analysis: This is probably going to be the lowest grade that I give anyone in the top ten, and potentially in the entire draft, and a lot of that has to do with Cam Newton going #1 overall. Obviously I don’t agree with the pick, and I didn’t even have a first round grade on him. Obviously he has a ton of upside, but upside is worthless unless you have a realistic chance of living up to that upside, and I don’t think Newton will do that in the NFL. The Panthers did a solid job addressing their glaring need at defensive tackle, but I am not that high on McClain or Fua even though they got solid value with the pick. My favorite pick of theirs was actually Lawrence Wilson in round 6. I was very surprised he fell that far. Overall the Panthers had an ok draft, but it wasn’t anything special. They could have improved their team much more significantly if they picked Marcell Dareus #1 overall.

Denver:

1^st- Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M 8.0

2^nd- Rahim Moore, FS, UCLA 9.0

2^nd- Orlando Franklin, OG, Miami 8.0

3^rd- Nate Irving, ILB, NC State 8.0

4^th- Quinton Carter, S, Oklahoma 8.0

4^th- Julius Thomas, TE, Portland State 8.0

6^th- Mike Mohamed, ILB, California 7.5

7^th- Virgil Green, TE, Nevada 8.0

7^th- Jeremy Beal, OLB, Oklahoma 6.0

Overall Grade: B+

Analysis: I really liked the Broncos draft. I don’t think Von Miller is the best fit in a 4-3 scheme, but as Brian Orakpo and the Redskins showed you can make it work. I think he will be an effective player in a 4-3, but I think his ideal fit is in a 3-4, hence my lower grade for him. I am very high on Rahim Moore and this was a great pick because they really needed safety help and he is far and away the best safety in this draft in my opinion and they got good value for him. Franklin will give them depth at either OG or RT, and Irving and Carter added more talent to need positions as well. I thought Carter might be a 2^nd or 3^rd rounder, so getting him in round 4 was a nice pick-up. Julius Thomas also has a ton of potential as another former basketball player turned tight end, and they picked up another versatile guy in Virgil Green in the 7^th round. I don’t think Mike Mohamed has a lot of upside but he is a nice depth/special teams addition. Jeremy Beal will be out of the NFL in a couple years in my opinion, but until then I imagine he could provide value on special teams.

Buffalo:

1^st- Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama 9.5

2^nd- Aaron Williams, CB/FS, Texas 8.0

3^rd- Kelvin Sheppard, ILB, LSU 8.5

4^th- Da’Norris Searcy, S, North Carolina 7.5

4^th- Chris Hairston, OT, Clemson 8.0

5^th- Johnny White, RB, North Carolina 8.5

6^th- Chris White, ILB, Mississippi State 7.0

7^th- Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond 7.0

7^th- Michael Jasper, DT, Bethel 6.5

Overall Grade: B

Analysis: The Dareus pick was one of the best in the draft because they so badly needed defensive help, especially up front, and they were able to address it with a great player at #3 overall. I’m not a huge Aaron Williams fan but he has the versatility to play corner and safety which gives him value and the Bills could use help at both CB and FS, so that helps. I like Kelvin Sheppard a lot and while he may not be an ideal ILB I think he will be alright in a 3-4 ILB alignment provided he has a couple defensive linemen who can eat up blocks at the point of attack. I’m not very high on Searcy and I don’t know how much upside he has, but Hairston has the potential to be a solid RT in the NFL. I love the Johnny White pick and I think he has the potential to be a quality RB in the NFL. I’m glad he didn’t go undrafted because of his injury. Justin Rogers showed me ability at the East-West Shrine Game so I think he might be able to stick on the Bills roster after camp.

Cincinnati:

1^st- A.J. Green, WR, Georgia 9.5

2^nd- Andy Dalton, QB, TCU 7.5

3^rd- Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada 7.5

4^th- Clint Boling, OG, Georgia 8.0

5^th- Robert Sands, S, West Virginia 6.0

6^th- Ryan Whalen, WR, Stanford 8.0

7^th- Korey Lindsey, CB, Southern Illinois 7.0

7^th- Jay Finley, RB, Baylor 7.0

Overall Grade: B-

Analysis: This was a surprisingly solid draft for the Bengals. You obviously can’t go wrong with A.J. Green at #4 overall, and while I thought the 2^nd round was too high for Andy Dalton the Bengals stayed patient and got a guy they liked without moving up for him like a lot of people thought they might. Dontay Moch has a ton of potential but at this point he is a great athlete, not a great football player. It will be interesting to see how he pans out in Cincy in their 3-4 alignment, because he could be a fierce 3-4 OLB if he gets coached up well. Boling in round 4 is a pretty good value and he should help add some depth to the OL and can eventually be a solid starter at guard. I’m not high on Robert Sands and I don’t think he will ever be a NFL starter, but I love the Ryan Whalen pick. This kid doesn’t drop anything, so while the Bengals have some talent at WR already Whalen could end up being a go-to guy on 3^rd down because while he isn’t the biggest or the fastest he has some of the most reliable hands in this entire draft.

Arizona:

1^st- Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU 9.5

2^nd- Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech 9.0

3^rd- Robert Housler, TE, Florida Atlantic 8.0

4^th- Sam Acho, DE, Texas 8.0

5^th- Anthony Sherman, FB, Connecticut 8.0

6^th- Quan Sturdivant, ILB, North Carolina 7.5

6^th- David Carter, DT, UCLA 7.5

7^th- Demarco Sampson, WR, San Diego State 7.0

Overall Grade: B+

Analysis: Again, tough to go wrong with Patrick Peterson at #5, and following that up with Ryan Williams, a guy who has top 20 ability, is a great start to your draft. Especially when Beanie Wells has done almost nothing in the NFL and Hightower is more of a rotational power back than an every down starter. Housler has a lot of potential so getting him to potentially open up your offense with an athletic tight end is a nice pick, and Acho in round 4 is a good value. I also like the Anthony Sherman pick, he impressed me in Orlando and he is a good pass catcher out of the backfield for a fullback. I also like both Quan Sturdivant and David Carter, and I think they will provide solid depth with some upside for the Cardinals in the future.

Cleveland:

1^st- Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor 8.0

2^nd- Jabaal Sheard, DE, Pittsburgh 7.5

2^nd- Greg Little, WR, North Carolina 8.5

4^th- Jordan Cameron, TE, Southern Cal 8.5

4^th- Owen Marecic, FB, Stanford 9.0

5^th- Buster Skrine, CB, Chattanooga 7.0

5^th- Jason Pinkston, OT, Pittsburgh 8.0

7^th- Eric Hagg, S, Nebraska 7.5

Overall Grade: B+

Analysis: Phil Taylor was a pretty good pick at 21, but I thought he was an ideal 3-4 NT. I don’t think he will live up to the hype at a 4-3 DT because he just won’t provide enough of a pass rush to be considered a good/great all around player in that scheme. I was not a big Jabaal Sheard fan as a 3-4 OLB but he could be a pretty effective 4-3 LE, especially if they can get a talented RE across from him. I am a big Greg Little fan and I think the Browns got a very nice value for him. He has first round ability and while he is raw I think he could absolutely burst onto the scene in a couple of years once he has some time to develop. His combination of size, leaping ability and his time spent running hard after getting the ball as a running back makes him a very intriguing player. Jordan Cameron has a ton of potential as a former basketball player and he could end up being an intriguing option at TE because of his ability to threaten defenses down the seam. Marecic is one of everyone’s favorite players in the draft because of his ability to play fullback but also be a special teams ace because of his experience at linebacker. I thought Jason Pinkston had the potential to be drafted in the 3^rd round, maybe even higher, so grabbing him in round 5 is a pretty solid value. You also have to love all the draft picks they got out of Atlanta as a result of the trade down. Those picks should be very valuable as they work on rebuilding and transitioning to a 4-3 defense.

San Francisco:

1^st- Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri 8.0

2^nd- Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada 7.0

3^rd- Chris Culliver, S, South Carolina 7.0

4^th- Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State 9.0

5^th- Daniel Kilgore, OG, Appalachian State 7.5

6^th- Ronald Johnson, WR, Southern Cal 7.5

6^th- Colin Jones, S, TCU 7.5

7^th- Bruce Miller, DE/LB, Central Florida 7.5

7^th- Michael Person, OT, Montana State 7.0

7^th- Curtis Holcomb, CB, Florida A&M 7.0

Overall Grade: B-

Analysis: Again, I don’t like the fit for Aldon Smith in a 3-4 scheme because I thought he was a perfect fit as a 4-3 DE, but that is just my opinion. I was very surprised to see the 49ers draft Colin Kaepernick in the 2^nd round, and I wonder if they have a bad season again and end up with a top three pick, or maybe the #1 pick, if drafting him will keep Harbaugh and company from drafting Andrew Luck. I don’t think it would, but you never know. Kaepernick is very much a long term developmental project who is probably two years away from being a starter, so drafting him here when you could have made your team better and gotten a QB next year was a very strange move in my opinion. Culliver has a lot of athletic ability but I don’t like his lack of instincts, but I loved the Kendall Hunter pick. He could be one of the best values in the draft at that spot. The rest of the 49ers draft added some solid depth and special teams help, and it’s hard to hate that.

Tennessee:

1^st- Jake Locker, QB, Washington 8.0

2^nd- Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA 7.0

3^rd- Jurell Casey, DT, Southern Cal 8.5

4^th- Colin McCarthy, ILB, Miami 8.0

4^th- Jamie Harper, RB, Clemson 6.0

5^th- Karl Klug, DE, Iowa 7.5

6^th- Byron Stingily, OT, Louisville 8.0

7^th- Zach Clayton, DT, Auburn 7.0

7^th- Tommie Campbell, S, California (PA) 7.0

Overall Grade: C+

Analysis: I thought #8 overall was too high for Locker, but it’s not hard to see why the Titans went in that direction. They wanted a guy with great intangibles, great leadership ability and a great work ethic. Essentially, they wanted the opposite of Vince Young. They got that guy with Locker so it’s hard to totally hate the pick, especially since everyone was convinced he would have gone #1 overall ahead of Sam Bradford a year ago at this time. I am very much not an Akeem Ayers fan and I wouldn’t have picked him until round 3, but Jurell Casey and Colin McCarthy are both solid players and I like the value they got for them. They improved their DT rotation and added depth at LB. If Ayers pans out they will have really improved their front seven with this draft. I am not a Jamie Harper guy at all and I think that was their worst pick by far, but I like the depth additions of Karl Klug and Byron Stingily. Klug will be a versatile DL for them and Stingily, while very raw, has the upside to be a solid starter at LT at some point.

Dallas:

1^st- Tyron Smith, OT, Southern Cal 8.5

2^nd- Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina 8.0

3^rd- DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma 8.5

4^th- David Arkin, OG, Missouri State 8.0

5^th- Josh Thomas, CB, Buffalo 7.5

6^th- Dwayne Harris, WR, East Carolina 8.5

7^th- Shaun Chapas, FB, Georgia 7.5

7^th- Bill Nagy, C, Wisconsin 7.0

Overall Grade: B

Analysis: Tyron Smith has the most potential of any LT in this draft class, so it’s hard to dislike that pick, but the Cowboys will have to wait a year at least before he is ready to start, so he won’t have an immediate impact on the team. If they are patient and coach him up it could be worth the wait though. The Cowboys definitely got an athletic specimen in Bruce Carter but I don’t know how well he will fit at 3-4 ILB, especially in the Cowboys scheme. They love athletes and they got one, but Carter doesn’t have great instincts and I don’t know how well he will do against the run when he has to shed blocks from big, powerful interior linemen. I love DeMarco Murray in round three even though they have Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, and David Arkin in round 4 should add more depth and an eventual starter to their offensive line. Josh Thomas is a solid depth addition at corner though I don’t think he will ever be a starter, and Dwayne Harris was one of the best values in the draft in round six. He has potential as a KR, PR and slot receiver, so it will be interesting to see if he sticks and plays well there.

Washington:

1^st- Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue 7.5

2^nd- Jarvis Jenkins, DT, Clemson 8.0

3^rd- Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami 8.5

4^th- Roy Helu, RB, Nebraska 8.0

5^th- Dejon Gomes, S, Nebraska 8.0

5^th- Niles Paul, WR, Nebraska 8.0

6^th- Evan Royster, RB, Penn State 5.0

6^th- Aldrick Robinson, WR, SMU 7.5

7^th- Brandyn Thompson, CB, Boise State 7.0

7^th- Maurice Hurt, OG, Florida 7.0

7^th- Markus White, DE, Florida State 7.0

7^th- Christopher Neild, DT, West Virginia 7.0

Overall Grade: B-

Analysis: Again, Kerrigan doesn’t fit well in a 3-4 in my opinion. The Redskins seem to be a team that is in the wrong defensive scheme. If they used the same personnel but in a 4-3 scheme I think their defensive line would be extremely fierce. Orakpo at RE, Jenkins at NT, Haynesworth as the disrupting UT, and Kerrigan at LE? That would be as good of a defensive front as there is in the NFL if Haynesworth would get his act together. There would be zero room to run up the middle with Jenkins and Haynesworth plugging up the interior gaps, and Orakpo, Haynesworth and Kerrigan would be more than enough to get pressure on quarterbacks without having to blitz to consistently create pressure. But obviously that isn’t going to happen, I just thought I’d point that out because that occurred to me as the draft was going on even before they picked up Jenkins in round 2. Hankerson in round three is a nice value and I think he will prove to be a valuable pick-up. I wouldn’t have wanted him in the top 50 picks, but getting him there is a nice pick-up especially for a team desperate for WR help. Helu, Gomes and Paul are all solid depth additions, as is Aldrick Robinson, but I don’t think Royster will be in the NFL in 3-4 years. I was shocked that he was drafted at all.

Thanks for reading! Look out for the rest of my team grades in the next couple days as well as a preview for players that I expect to break out during the next college football season!

–Tom

Quality UDFA’s

I am pretty surprised by some of the guys who didn’t get drafted, so here is a list off the top of my head of guys who didn’t get drafted that I expected to get picked in the draft:

Martin Parker, DT, Richmond
Terrence Tolliver, WR, LSU
DeAndre McDaniel, SS, Clemson
Derrick Locke, RB, Kentucky
Graig Cooper, RB, Miami
Kendric Burney, CB, North Carolina
Deunta Williams, S, North Carolina
Mark Herzlich, OLB, Boston College
Jeron Johnson, SS, Boise State
Pat Devlin, QB, Delaware
Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia
Darren Evans, RB, Virginia Tech
Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio State
Perry Baker, WR, Fairmont State
Andre Smith, TE, Virginia Tech
Pierre Allen, DE, Nebraska
Ian Williams, DT, Notre Dame
John Graves, DT, Virginia Tech
Ted Laurent, DT, Mississippi
Kenny Rowe, OLB, Oregon
Ugo Chinasa, DE, Oklahoma State
Justin Trattou, DE, Florida
Mario Harvey, ILB, Marshall
Mario Butler, CB, Georgia Tech
Dom Decicco, SS, Pittsburgh

That’s just a list of guys that I like and was surprised fell all the way through the draft. Hopefully the lock-out ends soon so that they can get picked up and start working to make a roster. A lot of these guys really deserve a shot.

Thanks for reading! Look out for overall draft grades for the draft as well as a look at some guys I expect to break out next year in the next couple days!

–Tom

First Round Draft Grades

1^st- Carolina- Cam Newton, QB, Auburn:
Grade: C
Analysis: I don’t think Cam Newton is the best player in the draft and I think they made this pick because they felt like they had to. They could have gotten Marcel Dareus, a better player in my opinion, and filled a huge need at the same time. I don’t think Cam Newton will live up to his immense potential that has more to do with his physical ability than his accuracy and intangibles. I don’t think Cam will be a great quarterback in the NFL and that makes it hard to like this pick.

2^nd- Denver- Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M:
Grade: B-
Analysis: If Denver was running a 3-4 I would give this pick an A+. Miller is a perfect 3-4 OLB and he would have formed a great tandem at OLB with Elvis Dumervil if he came back healthy. However, they are moving to a 4-3 defense and Miller will still have to be a strong-side linebacker in that defense. I think he can play this position which speaks to his athleticism, but it isn’t going to maximize his potential as a pass rushing linebacker which really is too bad. So I give this pick a B- because they got a good player, but they are limiting his potential by moving to a 4-3.

3^rd- Buffalo- Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama:
Grade: A+
Analysis: Dareus is one of the best players in the draft and the Bills got him at #3. The Bills like to use 3-4 and 4-3 looks and Dareus is versatile enough to play 3-4 DE like he did at Alabama or play 4-3 DT which he did at times in Alabama’s nickel packages. I think he is going to be a very good player for Buffalo and that is why I gave them a great grade.

4^th- Cincinnati- A.J. Green, WR, Georgia:
Grade: A
Analysis: The Bengals had a huge need at WR with TO likely leaving and Chad Johnson getting older. Jordan Shipley has ability as a slot receiver but they needed a future #1 and A.J. Green is absolutely that guy. He is the best receiver I have scouted since Calvin Johnson without a doubt and he should be a very good receiver in the NFL. He is as well rounded as any player at any position in this draft and he was the #1 player on my draft board for that reason. This is a great pick for the Bengals and they must have really liked him because reportedly they turned down a lot of picks from Atlanta to get him.

5^th- Arizona- Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU:
Grade: A
Analysis: Patrick Peterson is one of the best players in the draft and the Cardinals stood pat and let him fall to them. They had a great shot at getting one of Dareus, Miller, Peterson or Gabbert and they had their choice and I think they made the right one. Peterson will provide them a potentially elite corner to pair with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, a guy who had a bit of a down year last year. He fills a need and provides a lot of talent to a secondary that really needs a playmaker.

6^th- Atlanta- Julio Jones, WR, Alabama:
Grade: B-
Analysis: The pick looks really good because Julio has a lot of talent and could form a very formidable duo with Roddy White in Atlanta, however the price that the Falcons paid to move up to #6 and get Julio Jones was extremely high. It also feels to me like the Falcons tried to move up to #4 to get A.J. Green and then “settled” for Julio at #6. I personally wouldn’t have made that move, but it is a gamble and I’m glad that the Falcons identified the guy they wanted and made an aggressive move to get him. I just wish they hadn’t given up so much to do it. Regardless, I like the player and I think that Roddy will be able to mentor him effectively and help him improve his concentration which is something Roddy struggled with early in his career. I hope Julio pans out because otherwise this could be a very problematic for the Falcons in the future.

7^th- San Francisco- Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri:
Grade: B-
Analysis: I love the player, I am very high on Aldon Smith and I think I had him #6 on my big board, but I don’t think he is a very good fit in a 3-4 defense as an outside linebacker. He has impressive speed and burst off the edge but I don’t think he is a fluid enough athlete to drop into coverage and I thought he was best with his hand in the dirt. It will be interesting to see if he is still effective in the 3-4, but I thought he had the most upside as a defensive end in a 4-3 which is why I gave the pick a lower grade.

8^th- Tennessee- Jake Locker, QB, Washington:
Grade: B-
Analysis: When I watched Jake Locker he didn’t strike me as a franchise QB, and I thought that while he has a lot of potential and great intangibles he won’t be a great QB in the NFL. If he can be brought along slowly for a year or two I think he could be a pretty good QB in the NFL and it’s hard to doubt a kid with his work ethic and leadership capability, but I don’t know how good he will be in the NFL. I like him, but I liked him more as a pick in the 20’s than I do #8. It will be interesting to see how he develops, but I don’t think I would have picked him here.

9^th- Dallas- Tyron Smith, OT, Southern Cal:
Grade: B
Analysis: Smith is a solid pick here. Not the best value, but they needed a LT and Smith will fit that bill for them. I don’t think he will be able to start at LT right away for them because while he has a ton of potential he needs coaching up on his technique in my opinion. I think he might be able to play later on in his rookie year but I think he would be best starting as a back-up, developing and then playing when he is ready. Hopefully he isn’t forced in early.

10^th- Jacksonville- Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri:
Grade: B+
Analysis: Gabbert is a good pick here and I think he is going into a good situation for him. He needs a year or two to develop without being pressured into the starting position and with Garrard still playing pretty effective football at QB for the Jags Gabbert should be able to learn from him and get coached up. This is a good situation for him and I obviously like him a lot as a QB as he was my #1 ranked QB in the draft.

11^th- Houston- J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin:
Grade: A
Analysis: Watt is a perfect fit for the 3-4 defense that the Texans are switching to and he might be able to play significantly as a rookie. Watt really gives the Texans some talent at a position of need and he helps bolster a front seven that was in need of a talent upgrade. I am a big fan of Watt and I think this is going to end up being a great pick. Watt loves the game, has an incredible passion for it and I think he will work extremely hard to continue to improve.

12^th- Minnesota- Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State:
Grade: C
Analysis: This fills a position of need obviously but I think that it was a significant reach. I like Ponder, but his injury concerns and his down year this year would have given me pause if I was thinking about pulling the trigger here. Personally I would have drafted Nick Fairley at 12, improved my defensive line and then traded back into round one if Ponder was my guy. Just no value with this pick, and it felt like a desperation move because they couldn’t find a team to trade down with.

13^th- Detroit- Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn:
Grade: A
Analysis: I caught a little flak for saying that Fairley would slide to #12 in my final mock draft and not only did he last that long he made it to #13 which I was very surprised about. Fairley has a ton of potential and teaming him with Suh on their interior defensive line is borderline terrifying. Obviously he has work to do and he needs to keep working, but if he keeps improving and developing the Lions could have a terrifying pair of defensive tackles for the next 5-10 years. It’ll be interesting to see how he progresses because he has a ton of ability but there is some boom/bust potential with him. But at this point he is definitely worth the risk.

14^th- St. Louis- Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina:
Grade: B+
Analysis: The Rams needed some pass rush help here as Leonard Little is getting older and Quinn has the potential to be a very effective pass rusher. There is boom/bust potential with this pick as well because there isn’t much tape on Quinn since he was suspended during his junior season. It is interesting to note how his season long suspension was not deemed as significant as Dez Bryant’s suspension over seemingly less wrong-doing, but that is just my personal opinion. Quinn has a lot of potential so it will be interesting to see how he develops over the next three years.

15^th- Miami- Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida:
Grade: D+
Analysis: This is a very bad pick in my opinion. He might end up being a pretty good guard in the NFL, but I don’t think he is worth this high of a selection at all. I personally think he is very overrated and a lot of that has to do with his brother Maurkice being a pro-bowler at center for the Steelers as a rookie. The mind-boggling thing is that I haven’t heard one person say that they think Mike is going to be a better NFL player than Maurkice, and yet he was drafted two picks higher than Maurkice was! That is absolutely mind-boggling to me. Pouncey has the potential to be a pretty good guard in the NFL, but I think he is overrated and I don’t think he will live up to such a high selection for a guard.

16^th- Washington- Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue:
Grade: C+
Analysis: I like Kerrigan a lot as a player but I thought his best fit was as a LE in a 4-3 defense, not as a 3-4 OLB. I never thought he looked like a fluid enough athlete to play that position, so I was pretty surprised when the Redskins, a new 3-4 team, drafted him to play 3-4 OLB. Very surprising. I love his motor and work ethic so I think he will get the most out of his ability, I just don’t think he is a good fit for this scheme.

17^th- New England- Nate Solder, OT, Colorado:
Grade: C-
Analysis: I know it seems like I am giving a lot of bad grades, but some guys that I am not high on were going higher than I thought they should have. Solder is a guy that I would have picked in round 2 but I am not high on him. He has a lot of athletic ability and has good potential to play LT, but I think he is overrated as a LT prospect. The Patriots have a great drafting track record so it will be interesting to see if they prove to be right, but I definitely don’t like this pick.

18^th- San Diego- Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois:
Grade: B+
Analysis: I like Liuget as a prospect. He will be a pretty good fit at 3-4 DE for the Chargers and he should have a good impact against the run and should be able to penetrate upfield and disrupt plays in the backfield. I’m pretty high on Liuget so I liked this pick for the Chargers.

19^th- New York Giants- Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraksa:
Grade: A
Analysis: The Giants needed help at corner and I think they had to be surprised that Amukamara slid this far, so I think this is a very good value pick here. Amukamara has some technique work to do but going to a Giants team that has a thriving pass rush and some veteran experience at corner so hopefully he won’t be forced into playing time too early.

20^th- Tampa Bay- Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa:
Grade: B-
Analysis: I am not a big Clayborn fan and I am wary of him because of his down year this past season when he seemed to be throttling it down. I think he has the potential to prove me wrong, but he was a risk that I wouldn’t have felt comfortable taking without being able to evaluate his personality to see if he was as hard of a worker as everyone seemed to make him out to be. So I am not sold on him at 20, but he could very well prove me wrong.

21^st- Cleveland: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor:
Grade: B-
Analysis: This is a pretty good pick and I would probably give it a B+ or A- if the Browns were still running a 3-4 but they are running a 4-3 and having Rubin and Taylor inside will mean they will be getting almost no interior pass rush from their starters. They will need to bolster their interior line depth with some more athletic pass rushers to ever get a pass rush. However, their run defense should be formidable and I like Phil Taylor as a prospect so they still get a pretty good grade.

22^nd- Indianapolis- Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College:
Grade: A
Analysis: I thought Castonzo was a top 20 lock so this is good value for him here, plus he was my #1 ranked offensive tackle when it was all said and done, over Tyron Smith. I think he will be a good LT for the Colts for a very long time and I think Castonzo is an underrated prospect when it comes to playing the LT position. The Colts are a savvy team when it comes to the draft and I think they made a very good pick here, I’m a big Castonzo fan.

23^rd- Philadelphia- Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor:
Grade: B+
Analysis: Watkins is a player I like but he is older than the average draft pick at 26 years old which limits his upside but I think he will be able to contribute early in his career which makes up for it to a degree. He should be a big help at guard for the Eagles who generally target offensive and defensive linemen in the first round of the draft.

24^th- New Orleans- Cameron Jordan, DE, California:
Grade: B+
Analysis: I don’t think Jordan is a great fit as a 4-3 DE but I think he will be pretty good there. I think he would have been better in a 3-4 system though. Regardless, he is a very fundamentally sound player and he should be able to contribute early on in his career as a Saint and I definitely like him a lot as a prospect, plus they got a good value for him here. If he was a better scheme fit, in my opinion, he would have gotten an A or A+ from me here.

25^th- Seattle- James Carpenter, OT, Alabama:
Grade: B
Analysis: I think they could have gotten him a bit later but clearly they were high on him and I understand why. He isn’t a flashy guy but I think he is going to have a long, successful NFL career at right tackle in the NFL. I don’t think he will be a guard, I think he will be a very good right tackle. So while they didn’t get great value they did get a good player at 25.

26^th- Kansas City- Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh:
Grade: C+
Analysis: I wouldn’t have picked Baldwin this high and I have questions about his fundamentals (such as route running, short area quickness) and I also have questions about his character. He has a ton of potential because of his size and freakish athletic ability but I am just not sold on him living up to that immense potential. It will be interesting to see how he develops because if he learns how to run better routes he could very well live up to his potential because he has great athletic ability, attacks jump balls well and adjusts to the ball in the air as well as any receiver in this draft.

27^th- Baltimore- Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado:
Grade: B+
Analysis: I’m not a huge Jimmy Smith fan but he is a good fit for the Ravens scheme and he will be able to play a lot of man coverage on an island for them. He needs to work on some things, particularly his foot work, but he has a lot of potential as a man coverage corner even if I don’t think he has very good ball skills.

28^th- New Orleans- Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama:
Grade: A+
Analysis: Ingram is going to turn out to be one of the best players from this draft class but because he isn’t a flashy running back he fell this far, that and because of a lack of need for RB’s early and often in the first round. However, Ingram is going to prove to be a great addition to the Saints and trust me I hate saying that as a Falcons fan. If his knee holds up he will put up 1,000+ yards and 8+ TD’s consistently for the next eight years.

29^th- Chicago- Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin:
Grade: A+
Analysis: I think Carimi is EXACTLY what the Bears needed. They needed an offensive lineman who can run block effectively which he can and a guy who can pass block well which he can. He won’t be able to stick at LT in the NFL but he has the potential to be a pro-bowl right tackle and the Bears have to be doing back-flips because he lasted this long. This was a huge step in the right direction for the Bears offensive line.

30^th- New York Jets- Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple:
Grade: B
Analysis: Wilkerson is a solid value and he has a lot of potential so I like the pick, I just don’t love it as much as some others. I think he will fit in well in their 3-4 scheme so I think this is a good pick as far as need but they also got a talented player.

31^st- Pittsburgh- Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State:
Grade: A+
Analysis: I love this pick, absolutely love it. I am a huge Heyward fan and I think he is going to be one of the biggest steals in this draft when it is all said and done. He won’t ever be a big sack guy in the NFL but he is going to be an impact player against the run and he should be an anchor on this Pittsburgh defensive line for the next ten years. This is one of the best picks of the draft in my opinion.

32^nd- Green Bay- Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State:
Grade: A
Analysis: The Packers made a great pick to finish the first round with Sherrod. I wrote in my scouting report that I thought his best fit might be in a zone blocking scheme because of his good first step and his ability to wall off defenders in the run game. He struggles as a drive blocker so his max value would be in a zone blocking scheme because he wouldn’t be asked to drive block as often, and that is why I love this pick so much. Sherrod won’t be asked to drive block as much as he would in a man scheme which makes him more valuable, plus he should be able to play LT for the Packers allowing Bulaga to remain at RT where I think he is a better fit.

That’s all I have for the first round of the draft. I’ll try and get grades out for day two tomorrow or Sunday! Thanks for reading!

–Tom