I believed Josh Gordon had 1st round upside back in 2010, and still believe he has that upside now. Unfortunately, he comes with more questions than answers thanks to his dismissal from Baylor and his decision to leave Utah before playing a snap.

The Supplemental Draft always seems to generate a lot of buzz, mostly likely because of how little there is to talk about football-wise in July. Everyone is chomping at the bit waiting for football season to start, meaning they will talk about anything to make it get here sooner. As has been the case the past couple years, the Supplemental Draft is falling under that “anything” category.

This year we have eight eligible players for the Supplemental Draft. I believe there is one player that will be selected, Josh Gordon, the former Baylor and Utah wide receiver. The only other player with a chance is Ed Wesley, the former TCU running back.

Josh Gordon’s supplemental draft candidacy has become the stuff of legend the past couple of days. I have seen him compared to Terrell Owens, Calvin Johnson and AJ Green. Truth be told, the Owens comparison holds the most water, but those would have been far more apt had he been playing football the past year, not sitting out due to transfer rules before playing for Utah this upcoming season.

Based on the comments I’ve heard, it’s fair to say that the Josh Gordon hype train has gone off the rails as so many things seem to these days. As the saying goes “Where facts are few, experts are many” and because Gordon hasn’t played a snap of football since his 2010 season in Baylor, there is certainly a shortage of facts when it comes to Josh Gordon. What we do know is that he’s listed at 6’3″, 220 pounds, has a projected 40 yard dash time in the 4.4 range and hasn’t played football for a year. Optimum Scouting’s Eric Galko did a great job trying to track down some facts regarding Gordon’s dismissal from Baylor. Here is what he found. According to Galko’s source in the Baylor football program Gordon is a good kid who made a mistake. From what Galko has reported, Gordon’s character concerns are less significant than originally believed. Not much has gotten out about his decision to leave Utah before playing a single down, but according to Galko and others it was due to financial issues, not another incident. We will see, perhaps in the coming days, if that holds true.

Given what we know about Gordon, which isn’t a whole lot, he seems to be a risk, but not a huge one. It will be interesting to see if he is in shape at his pro day on July 10th, which has been moved from Rice to the Texans facilities I just found out today. If he is, and if he runs in the 4.4′s, I fully expect him to go in the first three rounds of the supplemental draft. Back in 2010 I thought he had first round upside, and there are reports coming out that some scouts had similar grades on him. It’s not hard to imagine why. He has the size the NFL craves for a #1 WR at 6’3″, 220 pounds, he looks like a 4.5 guy on film, he can get behind defenders with his long strides but also shows the ability to change direction quickly. He catches the ball well with his hands outside of his frame and has shown he can track the ball deep. He has also shown a willingness to block and because of his size and strength he could be a very good blocking receiver once he receives more coaching. However he is obviously a raw route runner and doesn’t have a well developed route tree as far as we know from his time at Baylor. The reason Gordon’s name is heating up so much is that he has the size, the speed, the athleticism and the hands that NFL teams covet. Like many receivers, he needs to improve his route running. But I thought he had 1st round upside two years ago and there’s no reason to think he has forgotten how to catch or run despite a year out of football.

Overall, Gordon is going to be a risk. He hasn’t played in a year, he showed 1st round potential in 2010, but you don’t know exactly what you’re getting. However, getting a 1st round caliber receiver in round 2 or 3 of the draft will appeal to the teams that are able to do their homework and clear him from a character standpoint. The talent is there, it’s just a question of which teams check him out off the field and how much of a gamble they are willing to take.

**Update: Josh Gordon ran a 4.52 40 yard dash at his pro day, measured in at 6031 (6’3″, 1/8 inch), 224 pounds, had a 36″ vertical, 10’1″ broad jump as well as 13 reps on the bench press. According to Tony Pauline he hurt his quad during the 40 yard dash run, but he was going to attempt to run routes.**

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys, 3rd round. The Cowboys aren’t afraid to gamble and the team that gambles on this is going to need some stones, especially if they are surrendering a 3rd round pick or higher. The way I see it, he was a 1st round talent that gets docked for not playing last year and for his off field issues that helped lead him to the supplemental draft. That makes the 3rd round a realistic expectation for where he will be drafted on top of reports from Evan Silva of Rotoworld saying a NFC East team won’t let Gordon out of the 3rd round.

The less heralded player who has a chance to get drafted is Ed Wesley, the former TCU running back. Wesley never blew me away when I watched him, but he has some quickness to him and offers some versatility, but overall I think he is a complementary back in the NFL, not a starter. That limits his upside and doesn’t exactly make him a rare commodity when it comes to the NFL. Unfortunately for Wesley I don’t think he has a great chance at being selected. He certainly has a chance, but not a great one. There is always a gluttony of talent at running back and not a lot of teams have a dire need at #2 or #3 running back, and even if they did Wesley isn’t dynamic enough to warrant a pick to ensure they get him in my estimation. That makes me think he will go undrafted and probably get signed as a priority free agent so a team can see what he can do in training camp.

**Update** Wesley reportedly measured in at 5083 (5’8″ and 3/8), 196 and ran 4.68 and 4.72 in the 40 yard dash at his pro day July 9th, 2012.

Prediction: Undrafted.

My predictions for the rest of the supplemental draft entrants are for them to go undrafted. The others eligible are: LB Larry Lumpkin (formerly of Alabama A&M, Carson-Newman), CB Quaylon Ewing-Burton (formerly of Boise State), G/RT Adrian Haughton (formerly of Iowa State), DE/OLB Montez Robinson (formerly of Georgia), FB Adam Harris (formerly of Cornell, Syracuse), and WR Houston Tuminello (formerly of Lousiana Tech, Stephen F. Austin and McMurray). Here is what I know about each of them:

Larry Lumpkin- Listed at 6’0″, 234 pounds in 2009. Played in 11 games for A&M in 2010 finishing with 43 tackles, 4.5 TFL, two pass break-ups and two quarterback hurries. Returned to A&M in 2010, finishing with 39 tackles, 12 TFL, four sacks, one fumble recovery and two forced fumbles. However, according to this article Lumpkin had some off field issues. This included being “constantly late for meetings” and “missing practice at least once per week” and eventually led to him transferring to Carson-Newman, a Division II school. He led the team with 94 tackles, 62 solo, and 10 tackles for loss, but entered the Supplemental Draft after being ruled ineligble for the upcoming season.

Quaylon Ewing-Burton- Boise State released a statement saying Ewing “Did not live up to the standards of the program” when they announced he was no longer on the team. He was not a regular starter, and was not expected to be a starter for Boise State this upcoming season. Ewing-Burton is listed at 6’0″, 182 pounds and reportedly ran a  4.53 40, 7.46 L cone, 4.39 short shuttle, and registered 12 bench reps and a 10’2″ broad jump at his pro day on July 9th.

Adrian Haughton- Haughton was dismissed from Iowa State on May 19, 2012 for a violation of team rules. I have not been able to find any details about why he was dismissed. He most recently played for the Orlando Predators in the AFL. He is listed at 6’3″, 338 pounds.

Montez Robinson- Robinson seems to have the most significant off-field issues of this group, at least that we know of. He was arrested 3 times in a 6 month span at Georgia, all reportedly pertaining to domestic violence disputes with a female student at Georgia. From what I can gather, he was initially suspended in 2009 and was going to serve a 2 game suspension to start the 2010 season before his 3rd arrest violated the probationary period Georgia had put him on. That led to his dismissal and from what I can understand, jail time. I have not been able to find a record of him playing football since then.

Houston Tuminello- I don’t know much about Tuminello beyond the fact that he is listed at 6’0″ 190, originally played for Louisiana Tech for two seasons, quit the team in October 2009 for personal reasons, and then transferred to Stephen F. Austin and then subsequently to McMurray, a D-III school.

Adam Harris- Harris has the best chance of the remaining 6 entrants to make a team in my opinion. He’s listed at 6’2″, 232 pounds and has been medically cleared to return to football activities despite sustaining three concussions in his career. He is a tough fullback and seems to be dedicated to making a NFL roster, and hopefully he will get a chance to do so after the supplemental draft. But with his concussion history I don’t think any NFL team will surrender a pick for him. From what I have been able to find, he does not have any off field issues.
Thanks for reading, and I will update this post with more information as it becomes available as some of the prospects hold pro days. The most notable one left is Josh Gordon’s on July 10th, 2012.

–Tom

About these ads