Griffin has impressive arm strength and athletic ability, but as of now he is not as good of a quarterback as his stats might indicate.
Griffin has been getting hype after he completed his second impressive season last year. He threw for 3,501 yards (completing 304 of 454 attempts for a 67% completion rate with 7.7 yards per attempt) with 22 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions. Additionally, he amassed 635 yards (4.26 yards per attempt) with an additional 8 touchdowns. Overall, a very productive season. However, as often is the case with quarterbacks operating out of spread offenses like the one Griffin runs at Baylor, statistics rarely tell the whole story. While Griffin may be a good college quarterback, not much of his game as of today would translate effectively to the NFL. Time will tell if he can improve in the aspects I will break down in this scouting report, but right now I would not project him as a NFL QB, rather I would expect that he would be asked to try out as a receiver.
Size: Griffin is listed at 6’2”, 220 pounds which is solid size for a quarterback. I have a feeling he’d measure in at closer to 6’1” if measured today, but that is obviously just my gut feeling considering that QB’s height measurements are often inflated, plus he doesn’t look that tall to me on film. He looks relatively skinny on film as well, so he could stand to add weight to his frame.
Arm Strength: Griffin has very good arm strength. He does a good job of putting zip on his throws and has a live arm. He can make every NFL throw in terms of arm strength, and throws a nice deep ball when he can place the ball correctly. He has enough zip on his throws to get away with staring down his receiver that he intends to throw the ball to without the defender making a play on it. He doesn’t have a spectacular arm, but his arm strength is definitely his most valuable attribute as a quarterback.
Accuracy: Griffin’s accuracy is one of the most disappointing parts of his game. He flashes the ability to deliver a throw in stride, especially on deep balls, but on other passes his accuracy is much less consistent. He can hit relatively stationary targets when he is scrambling (for instance, a receiver coming back to the ball near the sideline) but does not place passes well over the middle or down the seam. He routinely overthrows receivers and struggles to place passes correctly even on quick slants. He will occasionally flash impressive ball placement by throwing a deep pass perfectly in stride, but this is almost exclusively in one on one coverage with no safety over the top when he can put enough air under the ball for his receiver to run under it. His accuracy, overall, is relatively poor.
Mechanical: Griffin’s mechanics are not very good. His footwork could use improvement because even in a clean pocket at times he will look anxious, moving his feet unnecessarily. His throwing motion is pretty quick, however it is quite flawed. When he winds up to throw he drops the ball to his waist (or sometimes below, usually only on deep passes) which leads to a bit of a wind-up. He regularly throws off balance when on the run and doesn’t square his shoulders to the line of scrimmage when scrambling to the left, but seems to scramble to the right more than left.
Mobility: Griffin’s mobility is very impressive as he has track speed. I would be surprised if his 40 time was slower than a 4.6. He is very elusive when scrambling and has the quickness/acceleration to get out of trouble in the pocket when he seems doomed to a sack at times. He has the speed to get the edge even when defenders know he is about to take off, and he obviously has the mobility to extend plays with his legs and to gain significant yardage with his feet. His mobility and his athleticism is probably his most valuable asset as an overall prospect.
Pre/Post Snap Reads: I was not at all impressed with Griffin’s pre or post snap reads. Pre snap he rarely identified mismatches, and failed to check out of bad plays (such as a bubble screen against press-man coverage). He rarely, if ever, went through progressions and scanned the field and he frequently drops his eyes to scramble away from the rush. Usually he looks at his first read and if that isn’t open his second option is usually to run or scramble, not to scan the rest of the field.
Pocket Poise: He leaves the pocket prematurely very frequently, and does not have the patience in the pocket to step up/side step the rush to buy time to scan the field. Rather, he will drop his eyes and try to scramble outside (usually to his right, like I mentioned before, since he is right-handed) to improvise something on a broken play rather than scan the defense. He will look anxious at the pocket at times and you can almost tell he is waiting for a chance to scramble out of the pocket. His pocket poise is very unimpressive.
Intangibles: Griffin’s intangibles are a toss-up for me. On one hand, it is my understanding that he already has his degree after only three years at Baylor, including completing a double major. That is very impressive and speaks to his intelligence. However, his pre snap and post snap reads suggest a significantly less impressive football IQ. That means he is either book smart but not football smart, or he is football smart but just doesn’t study and watch film as much as he should. Neither is a very good sign. He seems to have some toughness though, but doesn’t seem to be a great leader.
Character: Seems to be a good kid, plus he graduated in three years which indicates a pretty impressive work ethic and some intelligence. I don’t know a whole lot else about him though. It will be interesting to see how my opinion of his character changes as he progresses through his junior and hopefully senior seasons.
Tom,
I really enjoy reading your scouting reports. Griffin is a guy I’ve followed since he was a junior at Copperas Cover HS. I don’t have a clue how he’ll do in the NFL, but I’m actually surprised he hasn’t more actively pursued track. I honestly felt he had Olympic potential early in his career.
He gradated from HS a semester early (#7 in his Class 4A School in Texas) and enrolled at Baylor for the spring. I don’t recall if he participated in spring drills for football, but he did run for the track team. He finished the season as the Big 12 champion in the 400 Hurdles (49.22) and came in 3rd at the NCAA Outdoor Championships. I think many people forget how truly gifted this kid is.
I may be wrong, but I think he still holds the National HS record for the 300 Hurdles (35.33). He also has the state record in the 110 Hurdles (13.50) and ran a best of 46.90 in the 400 Meters.
Anyway, I haven’t heard much since track related. I assume the knee derailed his progress. Or, he’s more interested in pursuing a NFL career.
I know you mentioned in your article you weren’t that familiar with him. One thing I will say is that he’s a terrific leader. His supporting cast, in HS and at Baylor, has been suspect. Of course, it’s my opinion only.
Again, thanks for your work, and I look forward to reading more reports in the future.
T
Robert Griffin III has maintained a high level of play even through the middle of conference play in the Big 12. Griffin throws the most accurate deep ball in the Big 12; he has very solid ball placement, he spins a tight spiral, and has great timing with his receivers and throws the deep fade with elite placement and impressive loft. He has been able to change velocity depending on the given route concept; keeps a tight spiral on short throws and displays soft touch on underneath drags and cross patterns. Very prudent with the ball, making smart decisions and checking down to his outlet when nothing is open. However constant blitz pressure adversely affects his decision-making, he does display improved pocket awareness and confidence in his legs, having elite athletic ability and acceleration.
That not withstanding, RGIII must learn to slide and protect his body at contact; needs to cover up the ball when running in the open field. He has shown the arm strength and velocity to drive the ball outside the numbers, but he’s a bit stiff and mechanical in the pocket and doesn’t naturally slide in and out of the pocket, at times he overreacts, but quickly recovers, turns his shoulders, realigns his hips, resets quickly and smoothly to make throws outside the numbers and releases the ball in a quick and rapid motion, while maintaining a solid throwing base and foundation, standing tall in the pocket. He can manipulate defenders in zone by utilizing a good head and pump fake. He’s likely a shade over 6’1″ and about 217, still adequate starting NFL QB height and weight, but possesses elite physical attributes, and understands the game at a very high level; RGIII has shown consistent improvements from year to year at Baylor, evidencing his commitment to success, work ethic, and ability to learn, he’s fully recovered from his ACL tear from 2 seasons ago.
Keep in mind this scouting report was based off of last season’s film, and at that point he had a lot to improve on. I have a number of games to watch of him this year, though I have seen him live a couple times. I think it is more than fair to say that he has progressed both mentally and physically with his mechanics, his poise in the pocket and his ball placement. He’s improved considerably since he was a freshman, and like you said he has definitely gotten better each year he has been at Baylor. He’s an incredibly hard worker, very disciplined and he’s got a great football IQ. He’s a film junkie so it’s easy to believe that he will be able to pick up NFL offenses, but I want to see more from him from a progression standpoint at Baylor. There’s no doubt he has an incredible amount of upside due to his athleticism, arm talent and work ethic/football IQ. We’ve never seen an athletic QB like him with such a reportedly high football IQ except perhaps now Cam Newton, but they are definitely different players. I’ll save any more of my thoughts until I study him more, but I agree with a number of the things you’ve said here.