Here is my latest mock draft. It is using the draft order that is current as of last week, but I finished the analysis for all of the selections today and I didn’t want to scrap it when the new draft order comes out on Tuesday, so I finished it and I am going to post it. Hopefully it is still interesting, it took a lot of work to put this all together. Let me know if you like or dislike your teams pick! Comments are very much appreciated. Enjoy!
First Round NFL Mock Draft:
1. Carolina (1-10)- Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford- If Andrew Luck doesn’t come out this year there will be a lot of disappointed teams at the top of the draft board, and Carolina would be one of them. Yes, they drafted Jimmy Clausen in the 2nd round last year, but he is not a good enough prospect nor he has he played well enough as a rookie to warrant passing on Luck here. Luck has such great intangibles, pretty good arm strength, good accuracy, he has two years of starting experience in a pro-style offense and has good size as well. If he comes out I would be shocked if he didn’t go in the top three overall selections.
2. Detroit (2-9)- Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson- Bowers surprised me this year as I was ready to write him off as a very physically talented player who never translated his physical ability into production, but he made me eat my words this year as he has amassed over 15 sacks already this year. I don’t know how good his burst is off the line of scrimmage, but he is very strong and should test very well. This might seem a bit high for him now, but he is a terrific athlete for the LE position and having a LE who could potentially be a 10+ sack guy is something that any team would love to have. I don’t know if I think he will actually be that kind of a defensive end, but his physical ability certainly makes it a possibility. Detroit could really use a stud LE like Bowers and their defensive line could be terrifying with Suh, Bowers and a seemingly revitalized Kyle Vanden Bosch on the line.
3. Cincinnati (2-9)- A.J. Green, WR, Georgia- A.J. Green is an extremely talented WR. He has great hands, he is a very good deep threat, and he demonstrated his value to Georgia by helping them turn around their seemingly doomed season once he returned from his suspension. Cincinnati needs some young talent at WR. I like Jordan Shipley and he projects to be a very nice slot receiver for the Bengals, but Chad Ochocinco is getting up in age and Terrell Owens, despite his fantastic statistical season, can’t have a lot left in the tank at this point. Drafting A.J. Green would give them a future replacement for Ochocinco and would help soften the inevitable blow their offense will suffer from when T.O. starts to come back to earth.
4. Buffalo (2-9)- Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas- I have been saying for a long time that Mallett seems like a very likely candidate to go in the top 5 because some team will fall in love with his amazing combination of size and arm strength, but I am not a fan of Mallett despite this assertion. His footwork needs improvement, I am not sold at all on his intangibles from an intelligence standpoint, nor do I think he makes his team better for being on the field. He doesn’t seem clutch or reliable in critical situations to me, and combining that with his questionable intangibles (in my opinion) makes me doubt him as a NFL prospect. But that doesn’t mean he won’t go early in the draft and get a boatload of cash, and the Bills could really use a QB. Fitzpatrick has played better than expected this season, but if they believe Mallett is a Franchise QB (which I don’t) then they will pick him.
5. Arizona (3-8)- Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska- The Cardinals could really use a QB, but Andrew Luck and Mallett are off the board and I’m not sure Jake Locker is worth a top five selection considering his relatively disappointing senior season. I don’t think the Cardinals will want to invest in someone who is as big of a risk as Locker is right now considering the amount of development he will need once he gets to the NFL. I’m a Locker fan, but he needs some coaching up once he gets to the NFL. The Cardinals do have other needs though, and cornerback is one of them. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a good corner, but they have little talent opposite him or behind him. Amukamara is without a doubt the top senior corner and may be the top corner in the draft considering Patrick Peterson’s potential move to safety in the NFL.
6T. Denver (3-8)- Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama- Denver has serious issues versus the run and one thing that McDaniels should realize is that the Patriots built their defenses by adding talent along the front 7, and that should be the Broncos plan of action as well. Dareus is a very big, strong, powerful defensive lineman and I think he projects perfectly to the 3-4 DE position in the NFL and he has plenty of experience playing it in Alabama’s 3-4 defense. Dareus should help solidify their defensive line within his first two seasons on the team.
6T. Dallas (3-8)- Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU- Dallas needs serious help at safety and Peterson is an absolute freak athlete who has great size, speed and ball skills. He projects very well to corner and just as well to safety, and could very well be an impact player at FS in the NFL. Having someone with his speed and playmaking ability over the top of the secondary would really make the Dallas secondary very talented and dangerous.
8. San Francisco (4-7)- Jake Locker, QB, Washington- Is Locker a top 10 pick right now? I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he went this high when it is all said and done. He has a strong arm, he is very athletic and he has great intangibles. He needs some coaching and development, but I think he has the potential to be an effective NFL QB. I don’t know if he will ever be the franchise QB that so many people thought he would be after his junior season, but I do think he can be effective. Troy Smith has shown flashes this season, but if the 49ers are sold on Locker they should select him. Alex Smith is a 100% certified bust and Troy Smith should remain the starter for at least a year before Locker competes to take over in his second season.
9. Minnesota (4-7)- Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn- Do the Vikings have bigger needs than defensive tackle? Yes. QB, Safety and potential Left Tackle depending on what they do with Bryant McKinnie. It’s hard to believe he was voted into the Pro-Bowl just a year ago. Regardless, the heart of the Vikings defense has been their ability to stop the run for years, but that has changed dramatically this year. Pat Williams is wearing down and should probably be released after this season, and despite his lesser numbers this year Kevin Williams is still a very good defensive tackle. But he can’t do it all himself. Nick Fairley is an very talented defensive tackle and honestly he reminds me a bit of Kevin Williams. He has great size, great quickness off the ball and with one move he can beat the offensive lineman and penetrate into the backfield. Getting Fairley would give them a quality defensive tackle to play next to Kevin Williams at some point and they would also have a potential replacement for K-Will as he gets older.
10. Cleveland (4-7)- Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State- This might seem high for Blackmon, but I don’t think so. I’ve seen him play a number of games this year and he impresses me every time I see him. He has solid size at 6’0” but he is powerfully built and he is arguably as physical as any receiver in the country. He seems to run relatively effective routes and though I haven’t scouted him specifically yet he seems to have reliable hands. The Browns could very well pick Julio Jones here, but I think Julio Jones might remind them a bit too much of Braylon Edwards. He has incredible potential and ability, but his lapses in concentration will result in drops at times. Blackmon is a very good WR and I have him graded as a top 15 pick right now, so I won’t be surprised if he goes this high at all should he declare.
11T. Seattle (5-6)- Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina- Robert Quinn definitely has top 10 talent but I am not entirely convinced he will go that high. He has two years of film on him, but he was very raw and really just demonstrated his freak ability and potential, but didn’t show much in the way of technique or sound fundamentals during his first two seasons. He has a lot of raw ability but he needs probably a year or two of coaching before I think he will be an effective starter. He could definitely be used in a rotation to try to get a speed rush on 3rd down situations before he becomes a starter, but if his technique and hand usage aren’t developed he will not be effective in those situations. But Pete Carroll is not afraid of a gamble on a guy with character questions and the Seahawks really need a pass rushing boost, so it could be a match made in heaven if Carroll and his coaching staff can develop his ability.
11T. New England (from Oakland 5-6)- Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA- Akeem Ayers strikes me as a prototypical Patriots player. He is very well rounded and he is good as a pass rusher and in coverage, and the Patriots could really use some talent at OLB because they have had trouble finding quality players to play that position. The strength of the Patriots defenses have always been their front seven, and with Ayers at OLB their defense would definitely be strengthened.
13. Washington (5-6)- Julio Jones, WR, Alabama- The Redskins desperately need talent at receiver so McNabb will have somewhere to go with the ball. Julio Jones is without a doubt the best WR available at this spot and the Redskins would love to have him. He has the highest ceiling of any WR in this draft in my opinion because of his combination of size, speed and ability to make incredible catches. He needs to work on concentrating on routine passes to make sure he doesn’t drop as many catchable balls, but he could really help open up the Redskins offense.
14. Tennessee (5-6)- Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina- The Titans need OLB help very badly and Bruce Carter is probably the most athletically gifted OLB in this draft class. Carter might not be the most fundamentally sound linebacker, but he has the potential to be a special teams ace as well as an impact linebacker. I think that after he tests well and showcases his athletic ability he will be a virtual lock for the top 20, so I could definitely see him going as high as #14 overall.
15. Houston (5-6)- Brandon Harris, CB, Miami- The Texans have had issues in the secondary for about as long as they have existed, and that problem was only magnified by losing Dunta Robinson in free agency last offseason. The Texans could really use some help at corner and at safety, but there is not a safety worth this selection. Brandon Harris is a very athletic corner and he has good ball skills and could really help replace Dunta Robinson in their secondary.
16. San Diego (6-5)- Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia- Justin Houston has had a great junior season and I would be very surprised if he didn’t declare and end up in the top 20 selections. The Chargers really need help at OLB because Shawne Merriman is now a Buffalo Bill and Larry English has not panned out as an OLB like they hoped he would have. Houston is not a tough projection for the 3-4 OLB spot in the NFL because he has played that position effectively in Georgia’s new 3-4 defense, which makes this a very easy selection.
17. Indianapolis (6-5)- Drake Nevis, DT, LSU- The Colts really need help versus the run but they don’t like big run stuffers who take up blockers. They like athletic defensive tackles who can get off the ball, penetrate and make plays in the backfield. There aren’t many defensive tackles who have done a better job of doing just that than Nevis this season. He has been extremely disruptive all season and he is quick off the ball, has impressive hand usage and does a good job of regularly beating one on one blocks. He would give the Colts some much needed talent at the defensive tackle position.
18. Miami (6-5)- Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama- The Dolphins have two talented RB’s in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, but Ronnie Brown is about to turn 29 years old and has had trouble with injuries and Ricky Williams will be 34 in May. Both of them probably have a couple of productive years left, but the strength of the Dolphins continues to be their running game and without a healthy back or two their offense struggles to sustain drives and produce on offense. Mark Ingram could step in as a rookie and contribute immediately as a runner and could replace either back depending on who gives out first or who starts to tail off. One of them figures to get injured at some point next year, and having Ingram would be fantastic insurance for both of them. Not to mention he is prepared to be a workhorse back in the NFL which is what the Dolphins will need in a couple of seasons.
19. Tampa Bay (7-4)- Janoris Jenkins, CB, Florida- Tampa Bay has a talented corner in Aqib Talib, but opposite him the talent at corner is questionable at best. Jenkins is a local Florida talent and he has fantastic ball skills, supports the run very well and is a good tackler. I’m not sure how good he is in man coverage yet, but having two playmakers at corner like Talib and Jenkins would mean a lot of turnovers for the Bucs once Jenkins breaks into the starting lineup.
20. Green Bay (7-4)- Cameron Jordan, DE, California- The Green Bay Packers have had a lot of injuries this year but one spot they didn’t have an injury was at defensive end. Why do they need one then? Because Johnny Jolly, their quality defensive end, was suspended for the season for charges related to marijuana. The Packers elected to move Ryan Pickett from NT to DE and promoted B.J. Raji into the starting line-up which has worked well for them, but I don’t think that is a lineup that will be productive for the long haul. Cameron Jordan has had a very strong senior season and he is good versus the run as well as the pass, and the Packers could look at him and see him as a productive 3-4 DE. I’m not sure how well he handles double teams because I haven’t watched him play enough yet, but if he plays well versus doubles he would be an ideal 3-4 DE for the Packers. They could also use cornerback help because who knows how much Woodson has left, but I’m not sure that is a position they will want to address in round one.
21. St. Louis (5-6)- Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame- The Rams really need a playmaker at receiver and I’m not sure that there is another position they need help at more than receiver. If the draft breaks this way I could see them trading down to try to add more draft picks to stockpile as much talent as possible. But if they stay here I think they will have to address the receiver position, and I think Floyd is the best receiver available at this point. Floyd may not have elite speed, but he has good size, he locates the ball well in the air, has great hands to make tough catches and I think he has a lot of potential as a receiver in the NFL. He has kind of a “prima-donna” attitude and I am worried a little bit about how hard he is going to work to improve in the NFL considering how easy he has had it at Notre Dame, but those are just my concerns personally.
22. Jacksonville (6-5)- Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue- I would love to have Kerrigan fall to the Falcons, but I don’t think the Jaguars would pass on him. They really need pass rushing help and Kerrigan has been incredibly productive this season. He has a great first step and he really gets off the ball quickly, plus he has as good a motor as anyone in the country, which really says a lot. He should be able to contribute early since I think he is pretty NFL ready, but I’m not sure his ceiling is much higher than a 5-8 sack LE in the NFL. That’s better than what the Jaguars currently have though.
23. Kansas City (7-4)- Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M- The Chiefs really need an OLB to help take some pressure off of Tamba Hali and Von Miller seems to be a perfect fit for them. He has recovered well from a slow start to his senior season and he has had a productive season. I think he projects very well to the 3-4 OLB position and the Chiefs could really use his pass rushing ability.
24. New York Giants (7-4)- Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State- The Giants love quality DT’s who can get upfield and penetrate into the backfield. Paea is freakishly strong but he is very quick and would fit in well on their defensive line. He would help make up for the disappointing players the Giants have at the position besides Barry Cofield.
25. Philadelphia (7-4)- Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma- The Eagles really need some help at OLB as they have tried a number of ways to fill that void but none have been particularly effective. Lewis is a talented linebacker who is very good in coverage and has played a significant role in making Oklahoma’s defense as good as it has been this year. He would fit in well in the Eagles defensive scheme in my opinion.
26T. Chicago (8-3)- Derrick Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State- I was trying to decide if Sherrod or Castonzo would be the pick here but I gave the slight edge to Sherrod this time. Castonzo would be a safe selection but I think Sherrod offers them more options as far as playing left or right tackle depending on how Chris Williams pans out at some point.
26T. New Orleans (8-3)- Greg Jones, OLB, Michigan State- The Saints really need OLB help and while Jones is not a very big linebacker I think he is one of the best linebackers in the country. He plays smart and is the heart of Michigan State’s defense. He would fit in well in the Saints scheme in my opinion and would look really good playing next to Jonathan Vilma.
28. Baltimore (8-3)- Aaron Williams, CB, Texas- The Ravens really need a playmaker in the secondary and Aaron Williams comes from a Texas program that has produced a lot of talented defensive backs over the years. He hasn’t had the best season this year, but he is very athletic and has good ball skills and that is something that has to be attractive to the Ravens who need playmakers in the secondary very badly.
29. Pittsburgh (8-3)- Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin- It might seem strange that Carimi is the pick here instead of Castonzo, but Carimi fits the Steelers’ scheme so much better than Castonzo because of Carimi’s ability to open holes in the running game. He has good size and strength and is good in pass protection, but I don’t think he will be a LT in the NFL, but he should be a quality RT for a long time.
30. New England (9-2)- Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa- A lot of people might not think Clayborn is going to slide this far, but I think he might when it is all said and done. He has not looked dominant at all this year, and contrary to last season when he seemed to demand a double team I have watched him get blocked one on one effectively most every time I have watched him. I don’t know where the dominant Clayborn has gone, but I don’t think I would spend a top 20 selection on him after having watched him this year. However, the Patriots are notorious for taking advantage of a player they like falling and being available at the end of the 1st round and I could see them taking advantage of this.
31. New York Jets (9-2)- Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State- The Jets could really use a 3-4 DE and Heyward is an absolute mammoth of a man. He has great size and strength and projects perfectly (in my opinion) to the 3-4 DE spot in the NFL.
32. Atlanta (9-2)- Lance Kendricks, TE, Wisconsin- I would be really surprised if the Falcons stayed at this spot if the draft broke this way, I think they would be much more likely to trade down. Remember, Thomas Dimitroff made his name in the Patriots organization before he was hired as the General Manager of the Falcons. However, if they stay here they should be looking for a DE, WR, potentially an offensive lineman, potentially a cornerback or a tight end. There is not a defensive end worth this selection in my opinion, nor is there a corner I like for the Falcons defensive scheme available right now. I think that TE is an underrated need for us because Tony Gonzalez is such a key cog in our offensive system and his reliable hands have resulted in a lot of key conversions for us since we have gotten him. Lance Kendricks might not have had the best season of any TE available this year, but I have been high on him since he was a sophomore TE on Wisconsin. D.J. Williams is another option given the season he has had this year for Arkansas, but Kendricks is a much better blocker and is comparably dangerous as a receiver, so I think he would be a perfect fit in Atlanta.
Thanks for reading guys, hopefully you enjoyed it! Let me know what you think!
–Tom
Dunta Robinson sucks. The Texans secondary didn’t take a hit when he left. Also Kareem Jackson has been ballin lately.
As for the Falcons pick, I don’t see us taking Kendricks. Then again I have no clue who we take. I’m fairly certain it will be an OT, DE or CB. Actually the further along the season goes the more I think we will pick a CB. This CB class is really good and it is a fairly big need imo. Dunta is sooooooo bad and we have nothing behind him and Grimes. Owens has sucked, Franks isn’t even active for many games and Brian Williams is like 44. In this scenario I would go with a guy like Burton, although I haven’t watched him much. I do know he played really well against Baldwin though.
Yeah, definitely don’t see us taking a CB because “Dunta sucks”. The man is playing in a system unlike any he has played in throughout his career (soft zone coverage) and is adjusting to it, and despite all of that, he is still helping the secondary out tremendously. If you think Grimes has just suddenly burst onto the scene as he has in 2010 just based solely on his talents, then you’re fooling yourself. If you had a needs list for this team and cornerback was on it, then you’d see it towards the end of the list, if not dead last. As for the pick, I’d much rather go after WR in this spot a la Greg Childs, but would not be upset if Kendricks was the selection.
Yes, please tell me more about Brent Grimes because I am not a Falcons fan!
You are one of 2 people I know that are praising Dunta Robinson. I have no clue why. He has sucked in Houston and he is now sucking in Atlanta. Did Houston happen to be running the same system too? Or how about we just don’t make excuses for TD? I think this was one of his misses.
I guess I should just assume anyone who talks about the Falcons is a Falcons fan……….And no, Houston runs a man cover system, so he didn’t run it there. As for him sucking in Houston, he only had one “bad” year, and that was 2008, but he was also coming off a knee injury, one that generally takes around a year to fully recover from it. Is he overpaid? Sure, but that’s only because I believe there is no such thing as a shutdown corner, but the man has helped this team regardless of what your opinion on him is.
That injury happened in 07. I thought he was a good player before the injury but there we’re MAJOR red flags surrounding him in FA because of his injury. It’s pretty clear to me he still hasn’t recovered and may never recover to his form before he got hurt. His leg drive is really weak and he doesn’t appear to have good instincts which is why he is always late to the ball and is content with just making the tackle(he still struggles with this too, Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn plays come to mind).
He did not have only one bad year. In 08 it was kinda expected for him to be bad since he still wasn’t 100%. In 2009 he was awful though. I watched some Texans games and he was baaaaaaad. Texans fans hated him by the time the season was over and couldn’t wait till he was gone. He really hasn’t improved much since last year.
The only reason he helped us is because Chris Owens is clearly not capable of starting yet and Brian Williams is slow, old, and on a bad knee.
Well, generally when a person says “coming off an injury” it means the previous year…and because you watched “some” Texans games gives you an expert opinion on him? The guy is a pretty good corner, and team still don’t throw his way that often. To act like this guy is a bum just because you have some crusade against him is just stupid. Like I said, he’s overpaid, but far from a terrible DB. And for major red flags, I never heard any thing about them besides the occasional “is he still recovering” type comment from fans. As for his tackling, he’s extremely solid there, and that Mike Williams comment is stupid. The man fell down on cut, he didn’t whiff on a tackle. I’ll give you that Benn missed tackle, but those aren’t a common occurrence for him. Anyways, no real sense in me carrying this on with you because I know you have a crusade against Robinson, so this is it for me.
lol @ crusade. Aight bro. Thanks for admitting I was right.
I don’t get it. You have teams taking a player that you deem unworthy of the slot. So basically you’re saying that you’re smarter than NFL teams?
The NFL evaluation process isn’t equivalent to ‘blog writing’ scouting reports based on a few broadcast games you watch on CBS.
Former Packers G.M. Ron Wolf would have his scouts look at 10 complete games of a prospect- minimum- every snap. You would watch five games of the junior or sophomore season , and then five games of the prospects last season, Why? So that you get an accurate call on the prospects progression or regression in every gradeable area. Is the prospect improving year to year, game to game? How does a prospect respond at home, on the road, a non-conference game, a bowl game? Is his conditioning good for four quarters? Does he play up or down to competition? All these things and more go into prospect evaluation. Along with personal interviews and backround interviews with teammates, coaches, family, people associated with the University, high school peers, high school coaches etc.
So I have a hard time being able to accept that you don’t consider a player a top ten pick, but NFL teams will. As if watching a few broadcoast games of a player and believing internet rumors are equivalent to an NFL evaluation process.
Some teams are obviously not as dilligent as others, but my reference is Ron Wolf of the Green Bay Packers who groomed Ted Thompson, the current G.M.. Jerry Reese, G.M.of the New York Giants, Buddy Nix (26 year scout) G.M. of the Buffalo Bills, and Ozzie Newsome G.M. of the Baltimore Ravens.
To say, “a team will draft (this player) in the top ten, but I wouldn’t” is laughable and somewhat delusional.
Hello again,
I agree, the NFL evaluation process is much more in depth than anything I will ever get on this blog. But does that mean I should just not try to evaluate players? I see what you are saying, but I’m not really sure that is a fair judgment on your part. I’m doing my best with what I have, and I have never claimed to be doing anything more than that.
Also, I have read about Ron Wolf a fair amount, so I am familiar with some of his practices. That is why one of my earliest posts talked about him, he is one of my “GM Idols” so to speak. In addition, I am well aware that scouting them on the field is only a part of the evaluation process. Interviewing the prospect (whether at the combine, a pro-day, or anywhere else) is incredibly important because without doing so you won’t know how well they know X’s and O’s, what kind of a person they are, and you won’t be able to evaluate their intangibles for yourself. It is something that really holds me back as an evaluator in my opinion, not being able to actually be present for an interview. I am pretty much guessing when it comes to intangibles, and it really hurts my evaluations of prospects in my opinion (especially with quarterbacks).
However, for all of your good points about Ron Wolf, I feel that your conclusion was a little bit flawed. To say that it is delusional for projecting someone in the top 10 even though I wouldn’t pick them there is strange to me. It is entirely possible that a NFL team draft someone in the top 10 that I didn’t like, that would just mean that they made a different evaluation of him and thought he was better than I did. That doesn’t mean that I’m right, it means they liked the guy and I didn’t. But for what it’s worth, I wouldn’t have drafted JaMarcus Russell in the top 10 (I thought the Raiders would pick Calvin Johnson, but that is neither here nor there) and the Raiders did. So is it really that delusional that NFL teams will miss on guys from now and then and I will be right on a player now and then? I really don’t think so.
Again, thanks for the comment. I appreciate the feedback. Hopefully I don’t come off like a jerk in any of my responses, that is not my intention.
Thanks,
–Tom
I understand that you’re running a site and you’re featuring a mock draft.
Naturally, you or I won’t have in-depth access to as to what teams are seeing from a prospect in all his fullness as a potential cornestone player (first round pick).
My basic complaint is this, If you’re seeing flaws in a player that you feel deem them unworthy as a top ten pick, wouldn’t NFL personnel directors see it just the same, with a more extensive check?
Teams are investing 30 million or more on top 5 picks, everyone knows about the potential bust factor, G.M.’s and scouts lose their jobs if they miss on a top ten pick.
The Oakland Raiders have the smallest scouting staff in the NFL, and Al Davis runs the show–it’s madness. They’re more of an exception than the norm in NFL personnel departments.
Ok, so I’ll read these mock drafts (not just here), that state “so-and-so player has all these weak areas, I think he’s going to be a bust” and so forth, but then they have the player going in the first round. Not the 3rd or 4th or 5th, but first round, even top ten in their mock draft. I don’t get that. If you don’t like a player you don’t make him a top ten pick.
If the guy is so terrible, why do you wan’t to pay him 30+ million dollars?
For example, me, I wouldn’t hesitate to take Ryan Mallett in the top ten and let him sit a year and take in a playbook, get reps with the #2′s and scout team, but I wouldn’t touch Jake Locker; simply because unlike Mallett, Locker has been wildly inconsistent with his accuracy, can’t put two complete games together, regressed mentally his senior year, and looks more like an athlete than a quarterback. In a different way the same could be said for Cam Newton. He’s more upside than production, whereas Mallett is both upside and production- against NFL caliber competition (SEC).
So I wouldn’t put Locker in my mock draft as a top ten pick, because I don’t have him graded as a top ten pick. But on a number of your early selections you state why that person shouldn’t be a top ten pick, it doesn’t make much sense to me.
Either way, God’s speed on your evaluating career. If you’re interested Sports Management Worldwide offers a good Scouting and General Management course online. Russ Lande (former scout Browns) and John Wooten (personnel director Ravens) facilitate the 8 week course which features two 1 hour online sessions.
I took it a while back. Informative, with good study material and assignments.
I think the source of confusion is that I might see a problem in a player that makes me not like them or grade them down, but I could see a team drafting him higher if they didn’t think that was an issue. Take Robert Quinn. I would probably pick him if he made it out of the top 10 or 15 picks, but I would not want to take him in the top 5 without him having played in an actual football game in a year because of suspension from interaction with an agent. That is just a big red flag to me. But I could see a team like the Bengals (another team with a “streamlined” scouting department, let’s say) or another team that isn’t “risk-averse” drafting him in the top 10 picks because of his immense potential. That isn’t something I would do, but I could see it happening, so I would have him in the top 10-15 in my mock draft.
Ultimately it comes down to whether I make my mock draft based simply on my grades or if I try to mock what I think will ACTUALLY happen. I usually try to do a mixture, but it’s fun to be as accurate as possible when you do these. I usually try to predict something realistic and then explain what I think of the player in my analysis of the selection, which is probably why you thought it was so strange that I have players in the 1st round of my mock draft that I think are going to be busts. If I did a mock draft based solely on what I think of all of the prospects it would look very different than what my mocks usually look like.
It’s funny you mentioned that Scouting and General Management course as I have already taken it. Knowing what I know now I would probably not take it again because honestly it didn’t get me any closer to being a NFL Scout and it was not cheap, so I didn’t get much benefit out of it and it cost a lot of money.
Thanks again for the comments though. I don’t get a lot of disagreeing comments on my blog, so it helps keep me on my toes when people dispute my thoughts on a prospect.
–Tom